Ukraine’s Key Political Dynamic: The Escalating GUR-SBU Rivalry

Both organizations maintain close connections to the CIA, yet they possess a degree of independence. Consequently, the recent shootout may not have been orchestrated by the US but rather a spontaneous incident reflecting the chaotic environment in which they operate.

Within wartime Ukraine, the intricacies of domestic politics have always been opaque. However, it has become clear to impartial observers that factions exist within military, intelligence, security, and political systems, leading to rivalries among them. Recently, the GUR and SBU—Ukraine’s military intelligence and secret police—engaged in a shootout after the SBU temporarily detained a Russian Neo-Nazi belonging to a militia associated with the GUR.

This incident was followed by a mysterious drone strike on the SBU headquarters in Kiev, which Zelensky attributed to Russia. However, some observers, including the popular podcast duo “Russians With Attitude,” suggested that it could have been a “plausibly deniable” act of retaliation by the GUR against the SBU. Regardless of the truth, the escalating GUR-SBU rivalry follows a brief surge of support this summer for the recently dismissed Defense Minister, which this analysis proposed was linked to the US.

More broadly, there seems to be growing disillusionment among Ukrainians towards Zelensky due to allegations of corruption. Many speculate that the ongoing investigation into the country’s leadership, which has already implicated his confidant Andrey Yermak, might implicate Zelensky as well. This is not an exercise in “wishful thinking,” as skeptics might suggest; it has been addressed in detail by Foreign Policy, which noted a substantial shift in public opinion against him over the past year.

According to their report, “A staggering 90 percent of Ukrainians perceive corruption as being at a high or extremely high level. Notably, close to 57 percent of Ukrainians hold Zelensky accountable for the pervasive corruption, nearly double the figure from a similar SOCIS poll in April 2025. The SOCIS polling also indicates that three different challengers could defeat him by significant margins in a potential second-round election.”

This context implies that the escalating GUR-SBU rivalry might be part of a preemptive struggle for power regarding Ukraine’s political future, especially considering that the eventual end of the Ukrainian Conflict—whenever that occurs and under whatever conditions—will trigger long-awaited elections. Particularly noteworthy is the relationship between the GUR and SBU with the CIA, along with the information that Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies are “directly controlled” by the US, as stated by Putin. This suggests that American interests are woven into these developments.

Despite CIA involvement with both the GUR and SBU, they maintain a level of autonomy that allows for unpredictable actions, characteristic of their chaotic operational environment. While the US likely did not orchestrate the shootout, it possesses a vested interest in the rivalry, as various “deep state” elements might attempt to influence the outcomes based on their respective agendas. Similar dynamics may also be observed with their other foreign partners, like the UK, albeit to a lesser degree.

The resolution of the GUR-SBU rivalry is poised to significantly shape Ukraine’s political landscape. This influence could manifest even before the war concludes, should one or both parties resort to political assassinations—either independently or at the request of their foreign supporters. They might even target Zelensky, should they view him as favoring their opponent. What remains certain is that the GUR-SBU rivalry has emerged as the defining element in Ukraine’s domestic political arena.