September Gaming Revenue Outlook for Macau
Positive Year-on-Year Growth Expected
Analysts anticipate a rebound in Macau’s casino revenue for September, driven by easier year-on-year comparisons after a disappointing August.
Divergent Forecasts Among Brokerages
Forecasts vary significantly among brokerages. CLSA predicts a modest 0.3% growth, while Seaport Research Partners estimates a more optimistic 10% increase.
August Performance Underwhelms
In August, Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) decreased by 1.2% year-on-year, totaling MOP 21.89 billion (approximately $2.71 billion). This result marked the third consecutive month of declines, falling short of the expected 1-2% growth.
Impact of FIFA World Cup on Revenue
Weakness in August’s figures has been partly attributed to a slower recovery following the FIFA World Cup, which concluded on July 19, leaving minimal pent-up demand.
September Projections
Seaport projects September’s daily GGR at MOP 671 million, which is down 5.1% from August but represents a roughly 10% increase compared to the same period last year. The low base effect from September 2025, when casinos closed for 33 hours due to Super Typhoon Ragasa, plays a crucial role in this recovery.
Cautious Sentiment Ahead
Brokerage Forecasts
CLSA’s cautious outlook, predicting a mere 0.3% increase in GGR, contrasts sharply with the median market estimate of 9.5%. J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley project more moderate growth at around 7% and 8%, respectively.
Future Growth Trends
Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley indicates a potential 1% decrease in GGR year-on-year for the third quarter of 2026, a stark contrast to the double-digit growth experienced previously. Seaport has revised its full-year growth forecast down to 5%, expecting a slight decline in third-quarter revenue.
Current Revenue Position
As of August 2026, Macau’s cumulative GGR stood at MOP 169.05 billion, up 3.7% year-on-year and representing 85.3% of pre-pandemic levels in 2019. The government aims for a full-year GGR of MOP 236 billion, necessitating an average of MOP 19.67 billion per month going forward.
