Tomorrow, the third and final estimate for the U.S. GDP in the third quarter will be released, with economists anticipating a growth rate of 2.7%. If this forecast holds true, it marks a slight increase from the previously reported growth of 2.5%. While this growth is relatively modest, it indicates a positive trend overall.
The Treasury yield curve has steepened to its highest point since February, a clear sign that the economy may be poised for an upswing. Historical research has consistently shown that a rising yield curve serves as a reliable leading indicator for economic growth.
In today’s New York Times column, Paul Krugman launches a strong critique of free market ideology. His argument is unambiguous: “Free-market fundamentalists have been wrong about everything…” However, this sweeping statement raises questions. Are there not valid aspects to free market mechanisms? Many would likely agree with me.
● The Gold Standard at the Turn of the Twentieth Century: Rising Powers, Global Money, and the Age of Empire
By Steven Bryan
Review via Economic Principles
Working as a historian and attorney in Tokyo (Columbia Ph.D, Harvard Law J.D.), Bryan offers a fresh perspective on the market triumphalism of the 1990s. In his book, he examines how countries like Argentina, Japan, and Germany ascended to prominence pre-World War I by implementing currency policies reminiscent of those in contemporary China. By embracing the gold standard, they aimed to stabilize their currencies and boost industrial growth along with exports.
In today’s context, the idea that financial advice can sometimes be more harmful than beneficial is widely acknowledged. A striking example is Bernie Madoff. While this case was extreme, it raises legitimate concerns about more routine advice from local financial planners. Ultimately, the effectiveness of such counsel depends on various factors, resulting in a gray area.
Recently, the House of Representatives approved the tax-cut extension bill, which has been sent to the White House for President Obama’s signature. This legislation preserves the Bush tax cuts, which were set to expire on December 31, and is viewed by some as a critical stimulus for the economy at this crucial stage in its recovery.
The recent data on initial jobless claims continues to show a favorable trend. In the latest report, new unemployment benefits claims dipped by 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted total of 420,000, according to the Labor Department’s report. While this does not unequivocally indicate that the labor market is thriving, the ongoing decline suggests a shift away from the earlier trend of stagnation.
A recent article in the IMF’s Finance & Development journal offers new insights into the topic of emerging markets, highlighting their growing importance in reshaping the global economy. Though the narrative is not new, the statistics presented are impressive and reaffirm the significance of emerging markets.
The latest quarterly survey from Russell Investments reveals a significant level of confidence among investment managers regarding the prospects for the global economy and capital markets in the coming year.
The most recent update on consumer prices for November does not lend support to those predicting an imminent spike in inflation. According to the Labor Department’s report, consumer inflation increased by only 0.1% last month, down from 0.2% in October. Core inflation, which excludes the often volatile food and energy prices, also saw a minimal rise of 0.1%. If inflation is indeed a potential concern, the evidence is not present in the latest CPI report.
