The Capital Spectator: Investing, Asset Allocation, and Economic Insights

<div class="entry-content">
    <p>● <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0393240363/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=9325&amp;creativeASIN=0393240363&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=thecapitalspe-20&amp;linkId=P2QZD35WEROROZBA">The Change Book: How Things Happen</a><img decoding="async" style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" src="http://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=thecapitalspe-20&amp;l=as2&amp;o=1&amp;a=0393240363" alt="" width="1" height="1" border="0"/><br/>by Mikael Krogerus and Roman Tschäppeler<br/><strong><a href="http://books.wwnorton.com/books/The-Change-Book/">Summary</a> via publisher (W.W. Norton)</strong><br/>From business cycles to emerging trends, models help us understand a world that continuously evolves. *The Change Book* provides 52 straightforward yet impactful models—with visual aids—that illustrate how change occurs. Drawing upon groundbreaking theories and discoveries from a variety of thinkers, authors Mikael Krogerus and Roman Tschäppeler, known for their international bestseller *The Decision Book,* use their signature wit and concise style to explore what drives the internet, the rise and fall of empires, and the paradox of change that often brings discomfort, yet ultimately fosters growth.<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-10-january-2015/#more-4714" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
</div><!-- .entry-content -->

<footer class="entry-meta">
    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-10-january-2015/" title="5:56 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2015-01-10T05:56:12-05:00">January 10, 2015</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta -->

<div class="entry-content">
    <p>The US labor market experienced a healthy growth last month, according to a report from the government <a href="http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm">. </a> Private-sector payrolls rose by 240,000, slightly exceeding economists' expectations (yet just below The Capital Spectator’s <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-nonfarm-private-payrolls-december-2014-preview/">median prediction</a>). While the December increase was significantly less than November's surge (+345,000 for the private sector), the latest figures still provide optimism. When we overlook monthly fluctuations and focus instead on annual changes for private payrolls, the outlook becomes even more encouraging. Last month, we saw the labor market grow at its highest rate (+2.48%) in nearly two years, reflecting the annual growth in the workforce of US companies.<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/a-solid-gain-for-december-payrolls/#more-4711" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
</div><!-- .entry-content -->

<footer class="entry-meta">
    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/a-solid-gain-for-december-payrolls/" title="9:38 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2015-01-09T09:38:52-05:00">January 9, 2015</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta -->

<div class="entry-content">
    <p>While it might seem risky, the recent decline in US Treasury yields and the implied inflation predictions could serve as a stimulus for a robust cycle of growth. The key factor here is the resilience of the US economy. Presently, signs indicate that the macroeconomic landscape is improving, with few indicators suggesting an imminent downturn. The Labor Department is scheduled to release its employment report later this morning, and it is widely <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-nonfarm-private-payrolls-december-2014-preview/">expected</a> to provide additional insights supporting a favorable view. If the data corroborates this, the US economy appears to be entering a favorable period: characterized by rising growth alongside low or declining interest rates and inflation.<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/a-sweet-spot-for-the-us-economy-maybe/#more-4705" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
</div><!-- .entry-content -->

<footer class="entry-meta">
    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/a-sweet-spot-for-the-us-economy-maybe/" title="6:53 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2015-01-09T06:53:56-05:00">January 9, 2015</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta -->

<div class="entry-content">
    <p>● US jobless claims decline; layoffs in 2014 were the lowest in 17 years | <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/08/us-usa-jobless-claims-idUSKBN0KH19V20150108">Reuters</a><br/>● US Consumer Confidence Rises as Job Market Strengthens | <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-08/u-s-consumer-confidence-rebounded-to-seven-year-high-last-week.html">Bloomberg</a><br/>● German Industrial Production Unexpectedly Drops in November | <a href="https://mninews.marketnews.com/content/update-germany-industrial-prod-drops-unexpectedly-november">MNI</a><br/>● UK Industrial Output Experiences a Minor Decline in November | <a href="http://www.rttnews.com/2439560/u-k-industrial-output-falls-marginally-in-november.aspx">RTT</a><br/>● China's December Inflation Rate Increases to 1.5%, Close to a Five-Year Low | <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30738406">BBC</a><br/>● Japan's Survey: November Machine Orders Increase by 4.6%, First Rise in Two Months | <a href="https://mninews.marketnews.com/content/japan-survey-nov-machine-orders-46-1st-rise-2-months">MNI</a><br/>● Bank of England Maintains Rates at 0.5%; ECB in Focus | <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/102320539">CNBC</a></p>
</div><!-- .entry-content -->

<footer class="entry-meta">
    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/initial-guidance-9-january-2015/" title="5:16 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2015-01-09T05:16:14-05:00">January 9, 2015</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta -->

<div class="entry-content">
    <p>In tomorrow’s December update from the Labor Department, private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 247,000 (seasonally adjusted), according to The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast derived from various econometric estimates. This monthly prediction indicates a notable slowdown in growth compared to November’s figure of 314,000.<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-nonfarm-private-payrolls-december-2014-preview/#more-4702" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
</div><!-- .entry-content -->

<footer class="entry-meta">
    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-nonfarm-private-payrolls-december-2014-preview/" title="10:29 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2015-01-08T10:29:22-05:00">January 8, 2015</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta -->

<div class="entry-content">
    <p>Typically, utility stocks do not draw much attention, but this segment of the US equity market has recently showcased a more dynamic performance. Once regarded as a safe haven within the broader market, shares of electric and gas utility companies are beginning to perform similarly to growth stocks.<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-etf-equity-sectors-review-8-jan-2015/#more-4698" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
</div><!-- .entry-content -->

<footer class="entry-meta">
    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-etf-equity-sectors-review-8-jan-2015/" title="7:25 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2015-01-08T07:25:57-05:00">January 8, 2015</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta -->

<div class="entry-content">
    <p>● US Employers Added More Jobs in December Than Anticipated | <a href="http://www.actionforex.com/analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/us-employers-added-more-jobs-in-december-than-expected,-trade-deficit-shrinks-20150108232384/">ActionForex</a><br/>● German November Factory Orders Decline More Than Expected | <a href="http://www.rttnews.com/2438896/german-november-factory-orders-fall-more-than-forecast.aspx">RTT</a><br/>● Eurozone Retail Sales Increase by 0.6% in November | <a href="http://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/euro-zone-retail-sales-rise-0.6-in-november-322567">Investing.com</a><br/>● Oil Prices Stabilize After Four-Day Drop Supported by US Stockpile Data | <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/08/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0KH07Y20150108">Reuters</a><br/>● Fed Remains Optimistic, Overlooking Global Turmoil Regarding US Recovery | <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/08/us-usa-fed-economy-idUSKBN0KG26D20150108">Reuters</a><br/>● Can Germany Rally to Save the Euro? | <a href="http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2015/01/can-germany-save-the-euro/">MacroBusiness</a></p>
</div><!-- .entry-content -->

<footer class="entry-meta">
    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/initial-guidance-8-january-2015/" title="5:18 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2015-01-08T05:18:03-05:00">January 8, 2015</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta -->

<div class="entry-content">
    <p>The ADP Employment Report indicates that private payrolls in the US rose by 241,000 in December. This figure surpasses <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/adp-employment-report-december-2014-preview/">expectations</a> by a significant margin and marks a slight improvement over November’s revised gain of 227,000. More importantly, the annual growth rate accelerated to approximately 2.2% as of last month, representing the fastest annual growth since August 2012. This data comes at a crucial time amid <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-rising-eurozone-risk-a-threat-to-the-us-economy/">concerns</a> regarding the stagnation or decline of Europe’s economic trends. While risks from abroad remain considerable, the latest ADP figures suggest that the upward trend in job growth remained intact as the year came to a close.<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/adp-us-private-payrolls-rise-more-than-expected-in-december/#more-4694" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
</div><!-- .entry-content -->

<footer class="entry-meta">
    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/adp-us-private-payrolls-rise-more-than-expected-in-december/" title="9:44 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2015-01-07T09:44:44-05:00">January 7, 2015</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta -->

<div class="entry-content">
    <p>Although US economic data has shown improvement of late, the market seems less inclined to celebrate. The US equity market has taken a sharp downturn in recent days, while demand for the safety of US Treasuries has surged. Is this simply a temporary fluctuation, or a forewarning that the recent uptick in the US macro trend may have reached its peak? The answer remains uncertain at this stage, as there are compelling arguments for both perspectives. However, clarity should emerge soon, perhaps as early as this week when fresh data on US payrolls for December is released.<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-rising-eurozone-risk-a-threat-to-the-us-economy/#more-4690" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
</div><!-- .entry-content -->

<footer class="entry-meta">
    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-rising-eurozone-risk-a-threat-to-the-us-economy/" title="7:14 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2015-01-07T07:14:23-05:00">January 7, 2015</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta -->

<div class="entry-content">
    <p>● Eurozone Consumer Inflation Rate Turns Negative in December | <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-07/euro-area-prices-seen-falling-as-risk-of-deflation-spiral-mounts.html">Bloomberg</a><br/>● Brent Oil Prices Fall Below $50 Amid Surplus and Weak Demand |<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/07/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0KG04P20150107"> Reuters</a><br/>● Rising Bond Prices May Indicate Economic Warnings | <a href="http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2015/01/06/soaring-bond-prices-may-sound-an-economic-warning/">NY Times</a><br/>● US Services Firms Expand at a Steady Yet Slower Rate in December | <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/us-services-firms-expand-at-steady-but-slower-pace-in-december-as-sales-orders-slow/2015/01/06/f73c3a7e-95b5-11e4-8385-866293322c2f_story.html">AP/WaPo</a><br/>● Germany’s Unemployment Rate Hits Record Low in December| <a href="http://www.rttnews.com/2438382/german-unemployment-rate-at-record-low.aspx">RTT</a><br/>● Italy's Jobless Rate Reaches a Record High in November | <a href="http://www.rttnews.com/2438394/italy-jobless-rate-at-a-record-high-in-november.aspx">RTT</a></p>
</div><!-- .entry-content -->

<footer class="entry-meta">
    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/initial-guidance-7-january-2015/" title="5:14 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2015-01-07T05:14:10-05:00">January 7, 2015</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta -->