Conor here: The situation with the Colorado River has reached a critical point; it can no longer meet the water demands of all the development reliant on its flow.
Consequently, states are struggling to reach agreements on necessary cutbacks, fearing that such measures would threaten the cherished notion of economic growth. Thus, the next step appears to be heading to the Supreme Court.
An important note is that the developer behind California’s largest planned AI data center is currently filing a lawsuit to source water from the Colorado River, despite prior commitments to utilize recycled wastewater.
More developers may soon follow suit:
So, what benefits might emerge as Mother Nature imposes limits on the Southwest? Zak Podmore, the author of ‘Life After Dead Pool’, shares some insights here. Next, let’s delve into the specifics of the federal management plan.
By Jake Bolster, who reports on Wyoming and the West for Inside Climate News. Originally published at Inside Climate News.
On Friday, water users in the American Southwest faced the likelihood of needing to reduce their consumption from the Colorado River by hundreds of billions of gallons. This follows the release of a new management plan by the Trump administration for the upcoming decade.
The document, issued by the federal Bureau of Reclamation, introduces a ten-year strategic framework that can adapt to changing hydrological conditions affecting the river’s flow, with the possibility of updates every two years. The agency suggested cuts in water allocations initially proposed by Arizona, California, and Nevada, which constitute the river’s Lower Basin. Meanwhile, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming, representing the Upper Basin, could undertake voluntary conservation initiatives.
Current interim guidelines and drought contingency plans established in 2007 and 2019 are set to expire in 2027, but negotiations for a new agreement have stalled, with states repeatedly missing deadlines to reach a consensus.
The Bureau of Reclamation manages much of the river’s infrastructure, including the Hoover and Glen Canyon dams, which form Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the two largest reservoirs in the nation. A federal decision finalizing operations for the river over the next two years will follow the final environmental impact statement released by Reclamation on Friday.
Andrea Travnicek, Interior’s assistant secretary for water and science, noted in a statement that “This plan strikes a balance between flexibility and predictability for the Colorado River system that is vital to the 40 million people who rely on it given unprecedented hydrologic conditions and the potential for considerable impacts on water users.” This new strategy aims to offer flexibility to respond to evolving conditions and pursue potential consensus.
The agency is contemplating releases from Lake Powell, a reservoir located near the Utah-Arizona border that separates the Upper and Lower Basins, ranging from 5 million to 12 million acre-feet to nearby states (note that one acre-foot can supply approximately two to four households for a year). The Lower Basin, which includes Mexico, could face considerable reductions in their water allocations, potentially losing 1.5 million acre-feet in both 2027 and 2028.
In this scenario, Arizona could see a reduction of 760,000 acre-feet from its river allotment, California 440,000 acre-feet, and Nevada 50,000 acre-feet, following a proposal submitted by the Lower Basin.
Beyond 2028, cuts to the Lower Basin could amount to as much as 3 million acre-feet.
The Arizona Department of Water Resources referred to that prospect as “unacceptable” in a statement released online, arguing that “Such reductions would devastate Arizona’s water users and its economy.”
Reclamation appears to be advocating for voluntary reductions from the Upper Basin of up to 200,000 acre-feet and is considering moving water from federally managed dams in the basin downstream as conditions permit.
JB Hamby, California’s Colorado River Commissioner, emphasized in a statement that “The proposal responds to a fundamental reality: the Colorado River no longer reliably produces enough water to support all the uses and expectations built around it.” He underscored that every state must commit to specific, measurable reductions in water use to tackle this shared challenge.
A representative from the Colorado Department of Natural Resources indicated that they are “analyzing” the document.
Governors from the Upper Basin expressed that they were “encouraged that new operating guidelines will better reflect existing water supply, which must underpin any practicable plan going forward.”
The Colorado River arguably stands as the most climate-stressed waterway in the U.S., supplying water to between 35 and 40 million individuals across seven Western states, as well as 30 tribes and two Mexican states. It flows through arid regions that are often struck by drought, with millions relying on the electricity produced by the Hoover and Glen Canyon dams.
The 1922 compact among the river’s users anticipated about 17.5 million acre-feet of water available to the two basins and Mexico; however, the historical average of its natural flow has only been around 14.7 million acre-feet. Alarmingly, this figure dropped to an average of 11.2 million acre-feet from 2020 to 2024, based on provisional data from Reclamation.
During the same timeframe, average use and evaporative loss across the basin was calculated at just over 13 million acre-feet.
“The operational ranges that Reclamation has proposed are the right steps to address the supply and demand imbalance,” commented John Berggren, regional policy manager at Western Resource Advocates. “However, what actions are implemented in the next two years or within any given year will be crucial to restoring balance to the system.”
Berggren expressed hope that the short-term clarity provided by this plan can break the deadlock in negotiations among the states.
“I hope [the basin commissioners] will not continue the same approach they have taken over the past two or three years, as it clearly hasn’t been effective,” he stated. “I urge them to seize this opportunity to explore innovative solutions and hopefully arrive at a seven-state agreement.”
Initially, Reclamation’s final environmental impact statement was meant to formalize the management plan that the basin states have yet to finalize. Although deadlines for these negotiations have passed, Reclamation is still open to the possibility of a deal, which is widely recognized as the most viable route to a sustainable long-term operating agreement for the river.
Negotiations remain at an impasse regarding whether water reductions should be mandatory across the entire basin. After decades of over-extraction, the Lower Basin is now using less water than it has been allocated per federal accounting; it advocates for shared cuts among all seven states. Conversely, the Upper Basin, which has never fully utilized its legal entitlement to water, has strongly resisted demands for mandatory reductions, offering only voluntary conservation measures. States in this basin argue that variable environmental factors, like this year’s unprecedentedly low snowpack, already limit their water usage.
Even with federal management options in consideration, the lack of a seven-state agreement raises the likelihood of states that depend on the Colorado River resorting to lawsuits against each other, with cases potentially reaching the Supreme Court.
Nevertheless, the intention to manage the river in alignment with hydrological conditions presents “the type of agreement we will need to carefully consider how to coexist in this basin with significantly less water in the future,” stated Celene Hawkins, Colorado River program director at The Nature Conservancy. Hawkins hopes this will catalyze a comprehensive seven-state agreement, “so that ultimately, we can ensure the welfare of both the communities and the river itself.”
