● US housing starts decrease by 2.5% in December | MarketWatch
● Consumer prices decline as plunging oil prices exert downward pressure on inflation | LA Times
● US Redbook: retail sales growth slowed during the second week of January | MNI
● US mortgage applications surged by 9% last week | CNBC
● Understanding the Decline of Global Markets | NY Times
● Oil prices approach 2003 lows due to worries about oversupply and demand | Reuters
● How Much Further Can Markets Decline? Leading Investors Predict No Bottom in Sight | Bloomberg
As the US stock market plummeted dramatically today, it has become clear that a cloud of uncertainty looms over the equity landscape. The S&P 500 Crash Risk Index, which consolidates various quantitative metrics, crossed a critical threshold last Friday (January 15), suggesting a continued grim outlook as today’s declines solidify historic lows. Let’s delve into some important details for the sake of understanding.
Continue reading
This marks a consecutive third week of disappointing news. Following last Friday’s double disappointment in December regarding retail sales and industrial output, we now have new, unexpectedly weak data on residential construction.
Continue reading
Expectations concerning inflation in the US are once again diminishing, raising fresh concerns regarding economic stability. Today’s consumer price update for December, scheduled for 8:30 am Eastern Time, may help alleviate anxieties that the disinflationary trend is worsening. Meanwhile, market sentiments about inflation continue to diminish… yet again.
Continue reading
● US home builder confidence remains stable in January | USA Today
● US Economic Confidence Index rises to its highest level since June | Gallup
● The Ongoing Debate: Are America’s Greatest Days Behind Us or Still Ahead? | NY Times
● CEO confidence declines as fears about China’s slowdown shadow Davos | Reuters
● A warning from a central bank veteran: The world is facing a wave of massive debt defaults | Telegraph
● The MSCI All-Country World Stock Index teeters on the brink of a bear market | Bloomberg
● Mark Carney dismisses imminent interest rate hikes for the UK | Telegraph
● UK unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest point since 2005 | MNI
Housing starts are projected to experience a slight decrease to 1.169 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the upcoming December update, based on the average forecast from several econometric analyses. This anticipated figure still indicates a modest increase compared to the previous year’s levels of residential construction.
Continue reading
Mean reversion in asset returns is a well-trodden topic in both academic and empirical discussions, yet interpretations of this critical concept vary widely. While some dismiss it outright as unfounded, others adopt a fervent belief that understanding performance cycles is critical for developing accurate forecasts. As is often the case in the realms of finance and economics, the truth lies somewhere between these extremes.
Continue reading
● IMF lowers its 2016 global growth projection to 3.4% | Bloomberg
● However, the IMF anticipates growth in 2016 will still outpace that of 2015 | IMF
● Eurozone inflation confirmed at a weak 0.2% YoY rate for December | Reuters
● China’s Q4 GDP growth marks its slowest pace since 2009 | Reuters
● IEA warns of excess oil supplies threatening market stability | Bloomberg
● German investor confidence declines in January as emerging market slowdown concerns escalate | Reuters
Last week’s wave of selling has driven most major asset classes into negative territory for the five trading days ending January 15, based on a series of proxy ETFs. Over the trailing year, all asset classes have seen losses. The negative momentum appears to be taking hold aggressively.
Continue reading
● US retail sales close out 2015 on a weak note | USA Today
● US industrial output slumps for the third consecutive month in December | Reuters
● US consumer sentiment continues to improve in January | RTT
● Q4 growth forecast for the US revised down to a weak 0.6% | Atlanta Fed
● Speculations of a rate increase dwindled as markets plunged; whispers of a Fed policy reversal emerge | Reuters
● Brent crude drops to a 12-year low below $28 as Iran’s oil contributes to the oversupply | Bloomberg
● Taiwan’s new leader grapples with a sluggish economy and the complexities posed by China | NY Times
This article unpacks a variety of recent economic trends and indicators in the United States, providing insights into housing starts, retail sales, and more. As global markets experience turbulence, the implications for consumers and investors alike are significant.
In conclusion, the data reveals concerning trends in economic performance, from declining housing starts to faltering consumer sentiment. These developments underscore the complexities and uncertainties currently facing the market, prompting careful consideration by stakeholders.
