Categories Finance

The Capital Spectator: Investing, Asset Allocation, and Economics Insights

Utility stocks continue to dominate the US market, displaying the highest returns over the past year according to a selection of proxy ETFs. This sector, sensitive to interest rates, is gaining a notable and widening advantage over its peers in terms of performance.
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Is the optimism in the US stock market fueled by expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate hikes? Or perhaps investors believe that economic growth will remain robust, even in light of last week’s report indicating a significant slowdown in job growth for May. It’s possible that both factors are contributing to the renewed confidence propelling equities upward. The revival of market enthusiasm contrasts with the continuing preference for the risk-off strategy in Treasuries.
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The S&P 500 edged higher once again yesterday (June 7), closing at 2112.13, marking its highest point since last July. The record high of 2130.82 achieved on May 21, 2015, is now within reach. This latest upward momentum gives bullish investors reason to argue whether the bear market has truly ended—or perhaps disputably, if it ever existed. Regardless, the market has staged a remarkable rally since the low in February, and for now, the positive trajectory seems to hold.
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The recent decline in job growth in the US is likely to persuade the Federal Reserve to postpone another interest rate increase during its policy meeting on June 14-15. However, Fed Chair Janet Yellen has indicated that tightening policy remains a possibility in the future. “I see valid reasons to believe that the supporting forces behind employment growth and higher inflation will likely outweigh the negatives,” she noted in a speech on Monday. “I expect the economic expansion to continue, with improvements in the labor market and moderate GDP growth.”
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In an unusual show of collective bullishness, all the major asset classes reported gains last week, based on a selection of proxy ETFs. Emerging-market stocks were at the forefront of this upward movement during the shortened trading week in the US. For the second consecutive week, the Vanguard Emerging Market ETF (VWO) emerged as the top performer, achieving a total return of 2.6% over the four trading days ending June 3.
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