The anticipated risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) experienced another increase in September. The GMI, an unmanaged and market-value weighted portfolio of the major asset classes, is now projected to achieve an annualized return of 6.7% above the “risk-free” rate in the long term. This figure represents a significant rise of 70 basis points compared to the forecast from August.
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Major US stock indexes, including the S&P 500, reach record levels: MarketWatch
Five promising factors may keep the stock market rally going: Bloomberg
10-year Treasury yield climbs to 2.34%, the highest since mid-July: StockCharts
Hurricanes likely to temporarily affect Friday’s jobs report: Bloomberg
Who will be the next Fed chair? Trump considers replacing Yellen: Quartz
US ISM Manufacturing Index rises to a 13-year peak in September: Reuters
US Manufacturing PMI indicates moderate growth for September: IHS Markit
The tragic events in Las Vegas on the previous night are now being recognized as the deadliest mass shooting in US history. The latest tally shows at least 50 fatalities and over 400 injuries. While this sorrowful incident unfolds, there are also inspiring acts of heroism emerging amidst the chaos. As this story continues to unfold, we will undoubtedly learn of many brave efforts to protect others and save lives. One poignant example reported by Reuters serves as a powerful reminder of what really matters in times of crisis:
Mike McGarry, a 53-year-old financial adviser from Philadelphia, was attending the concert when he heard a storm of gunfire.
“It was utter chaos – I shielded the kids. They’re 20. I’m 53. I’ve had a full life,” McGarry expressed, with the back of his shirt marked by footprints from people who had rushed past him in the panic.
In September, stock markets across developed nations outperformed the other major asset classes. Meanwhile, other areas experienced a mix of modest gains and losses. The most significant decline occurred within foreign government bonds in advanced markets.
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Gunman opens fire at Las Vegas concert, resulting in at least 20 deaths and 100 injuries: NY Times
Catalonia may soon declare independence from Spain: Bloomberg
Euro drops against US dollar amid Catalonia concerns: Reuters
US consumer spending growth slows significantly in August: Reuters
Consumer confidence remains high in September: UoM
Chicago PMI sharply increases in September, reaching a three-month high: ISM-Chicago
The October 1 edition of The US Business Cycle Risk Report has been published and distributed to subscribers.
By Bhu Srinivasan
Review via The Economist
Bhu Srinivasan’s latest book, “Americana”, offers a captivating journey through the businesses and industries that propelled America to become the largest economy globally. Written in an engaging and informative style, the book is thoughtfully structured. Each chapter revolves around a theme—such as tobacco, cotton, steam, oil, bootlegging, and mobile phones—and they are organized chronologically to lead the reader through the history of the American economy.
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The tax plan introduced by Republicans this week faces a long road ahead, yet investors in small-cap stocks are optimistic, choosing to buy now and address potential concerns later.
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Challenges remain for enacting the GOP’s tax-reform bill in Congress: Politico
Final Q2 GDP growth estimate for the US revised up to 3.1%: MarketWatch
US jobless claims rise by 12,000 – the first increase in three weeks: RTT
US trade deficit narrows in August due to lower imports: MarketWatch
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index continues solid growth in September: KC Fed
Japan’s inflation rebounds in August: Bloomberg
S&P 500 reaches record high on Thursday: Reuters
Forecasts indicate a moderately slower pace of economic growth in the US for the third quarter compared to Q2, as suggested by the average estimates from multiple models and economic surveys compiled by The Capital Spectator. While this expected growth remains substantial enough to sustain economic continuity, current data implies that next month’s preliminary Q3 statistics from the Bureau of Economic Analysis may reveal a notable slowdown.
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