Next week is a pivotal moment for the GOP’s tax proposal: Bloomberg
Zimbabwe witnesses its first new president in 37 years: BBC
German business confidence reaches new heights amid economic growth: Bloomberg
US Consumer Sentiment Index increases in November, nearing a decade peak: CNBC
US durable goods orders dip by 1.2% in October: USA Today
Jobless claims in the US decrease for the first time in three weeks: Reuters
Federal Reserve minutes reveal a positive outlook for US economic growth: CNBC
Is the US poised for a record-breaking holiday shopping season? Fox News
FAANG and other tech stocks have seen significant growth this year: ReCode
The flattening of the Treasury yield curve has become a subject of concern as it is typically seen as a potential sign of economic challenges. As of November 21, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields narrowed to 59 basis points, the tightest in a decade. Despite this, the economic indicators for the US remain robust. This contradiction has many analysts and investors seeking clarity. To shed light on the situation, The Capital Spectator engaged with Bob Dieli, an economist at RDLB, Inc., a consultancy specializing in business-cycle analysis.
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FCC proposes to revoke regulations ensuring equal access to the internet: NY Times
Federal Reserve is wary of an overheating US labor market: Bloomberg
Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index shows a significant increase in October: Chicago Fed
Existing home sales in the US rose by 2% in October: Reuters
Global stock markets continue to rise on optimism: Reuters
Vanguard forecasts stock market returns of 4%-6% for the medium term: CNBC
Blackrock reassures that the flattening yield curve does not signal imminent trouble for the US economy: CNBC
The 10-Year/2-Year Treasury yield spread contracts to 59 basis points, the lowest since 2007:
The current state of US economic activity remains positively solid, as indicated by recent data. Consequently, the risk of recession appears to be minimal, based on data available through October. The upcoming outlook also seems promising, indicating that the recent GDP growth momentum may persist into the fourth quarter.
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Justice Department files suit to prevent the AT&T/Time-Warner merger: Bloomberg
Trump administration terminates residency status for 59,000 Haitians: NY Times
Trump promises a “massive tax cut by Christmas”: AP
The US Leading Economic Index surpassed expectations in October: CNBC
Fed Chair Yellen will depart the board once her successor is installed: Reuters
2-Year Treasury yield climbs to 1.77%, marking the highest since 2008:
Last week’s performance in fixed-income markets for both developed and emerging countries topped the charts among major asset classes, according to a range of exchange-traded products. The gains represent the second consecutive week of stable to stronger prices following a two-month decline in offshore bond values.
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Efforts to establish a new government in Germany fail: BBC
Zimbabwe’s Mugabe clings to power: Reuters
The GOP relies on trickle-down economics for its tax strategy: USA Today
Japan’s export growth signals continued economic expansion in Q4: Reuters
US housing construction surged in October, nearing post-recession highs: MarketWatch
Kansas City Manufacturing Index dips in November, yet remains indicative of solid growth: KC Fed
Goldman Sachs anticipates four interest rate hikes in the US for 2018: Bloomberg
AAII’s bullish sentiment experiences its largest one-week drop since 2013: Bespoke
By Rachel Botsman
Review via Kirkus Reviews
In an era when trust in institutions—like Congress, the media, and the Church—is declining, a new form of trust is emerging. It is termed distributed trust, which hinges on “people trusting one another through technology,” according to business consultant Botsman (co-author of What’s Mine Is Yours: The Rise of Collaborative Consumption, 2010). The rise of multi-billion-dollar companies such as Airbnb and Uber exemplifies how trust can be built through networks and marketplaces. With engrossing narratives, the author elucidates how distributed trust—a “confident relationship with the unknown”—powers a wide range of enterprises, including crowdfunding initiatives, social media, peer-to-peer lending, online education, and platforms like Wikipedia. She further asserts that with the advent of self-driving cars, we now entrust “our very lives to technology’s unseen hand.”
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The discussion surrounding the significance of the Treasury spread for business-cycle analysis is gaining momentum, especially following the recent narrowing of the gap between 10-year and 2-year yields. While the US economic trend remains healthy, this continuing contraction in the yield spread raises concerns based on its historical performance.
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