In recent developments, China has implemented tariffs on a variety of U.S. goods: Wall St Journal
Trump warns that the U.S. may withdraw from NAFTA if Mexico does not enhance border security: Bloomberg
Israel is encountering new military and political challenges following a deadly incident in Gaza: WSJ
Intense clashes transpire in Kashmir involving the Indian army and militants: BBC
The tariff conflict poses a significant threat to the U.S. agricultural sector, a stronghold for the Trump administration: NY Times
Guidelines for assessing which nations face risks in a trade conflict: ETF Trends
Sentiment within China’s manufacturing sector has dipped to a four-month low as of March: IHS Markit
Technology companies prepare for a new privacy law in the European Union: The Hill
The U.S. stock market closed the first quarter near its lowest level for that period: MarketWatch
By Alan Blinder
Interview with author via MarketPlace.org
The interplay between fiscal policy and political strategy often yields discord, as politicians may prioritize political agendas over sound economic principles. Alan Blinder, an economics professor at Princeton, scrutinizes this complex relationship in his latest book, “Advice and Dissent: Why America Suffers When Politics and Economics Collide,” providing insights and potential remedies to these issues. Marketplace host Kai Ryssdal engaged in a compelling discussion with Blinder regarding the insights contained within the book.
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Factor Momentum
Robert D. Arnott (Research Affiliates), et al.
January 31, 2018
Historical returns in industries can forecast the cross-section of industry performance, with the strongest predictability at a one-month horizon (Moskowitz and Grinblatt 1999). This research reveals that the cross-section of factor returns mirrors this trend, indicating that industry momentum originates from factor momentum. Moreover, fluctuations in industries’ factor loadings facilitate the transmission of factor momentum into industry returns. While the factor momentum phenomenon exists across all factors, it does not resolve but rather amplifies the quandary of momentum in individual stock performances.
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Russia has expelled 60 U.S. diplomats from its territory: Reuters
U.S. consumer spending growth has lagged behind income growth for the second consecutive month: Bloomberg
The Consumer Sentiment Index in the U.S. has surged to its highest point since 2004: CNBC
Jobless claims have dropped to their lowest level since 1973: MarketWatch
The sentiment reading for the Chicago PMI has decreased to a twelve-month low: Chicago PMI
Global mergers and acquisitions have reached a record high in the first quarter: Reuters
The VIX Index indicates that volatility in the U.S. equity market has nearly doubled in the first quarter: Bloomberg
The recent decline in major technology stocks has disproportionately impacted the broader market: WSJ
Two Federal Reserve officials have recently questioned the relevance of the yield curve as an economic indicator. However, a recent research note from the San Francisco Fed suggests that the yield curve remains an important economic signal to monitor the business cycle, particularly as the yield difference between the 10-year and 2-year rates has consistently reached new lows in the post-recession period.
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North and South Korea have established a date for border talks: NY Times
China has warned the U.S. against opening a “Pandora’s box” with a trade war: Reuters
Germany’s unemployment rate has dipped to a record low in March: Bloomberg
Reports indicate potential renewed oil-production cuts by OPEC: Reuters
U.S. Q4 GDP growth has been revised upwards to 2.9% from 2.5%: MarketWatch
The U.S. trade deficit in goods has widened for the sixth consecutive month in February: FreightWaves
Pending home sales in the U.S. increased by 3.1% in February: HousingWire
A study suggests that low risk may predict financial crises: Vox EU
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread has fallen below 50 basis points for the first time since 2007:
Recent volatility in the U.S. stock market has affected nearly all equity sectors. Currently, only two out of the eleven sectors — consumer discretionary and technology — are showing positive year-to-date performance based on various ETFs.
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China reports that North Korea’s Kim has committed to denuclearization and plans to meet with U.S. officials: Reuters
The U.S. and South Korea are set to revise their trade agreement: Reuters
The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index has decreased in March after reaching an 18-year high in February: CNBC
Home prices have risen in all top-20 U.S. cities as of January: HousingWire
Manufacturing activity in the Richmond Fed’s district is expanding at a slower pace in March: Richmond Fed
Economic sentiment in the Eurozone has declined to a six-month low in March: RTT
Analysts say that stock market corrections since 2009 have typically taken an average of 200 days to recover: Bloomberg
Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester stated recently that the flattening yield curve does not imply a weakening U.S. economy. This comment aligns with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s earlier observations regarding the diminished significance of long and short Treasury yield differences as forecasts for recession risk due to low inflation in recent years.
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The U.S. and European Union are coordinating plans to expel over 100 Russian diplomats: Reuters
Russia has vowed to retaliate against the mass expulsion of its diplomats: CNN
North Korea’s Kim is reportedly on a visit to China: Bloomberg
Stock markets in the U.S. and abroad experienced a sharp rebound as fears over trade wars diminished: BBC
Progressive groups advocate for a more diverse portfolio in selecting a new NY Fed chief: NY Times
The Cleveland Fed president supports further rate hikes, acknowledging trade tensions as a potential risk: MW
Manufacturing growth within the Dallas Fed’s district has slowed: Dallas Fed
U.S. economic activity has strengthened in February: Chicago Fed
