[Today’s Iran war post was launched before completion. Please revisit or refresh this page at 8:30 AM EDT for the final version.]
As tensions escalate, former President Trump has continued to make inflammatory remarks, hinting at further aggression while the U.S. allegedly positions more military resources in the region. Iranian officials have responded quickly and pointedly, vowing that any restrictions on their oil exports would be met with dire economic consequences for all Middle Eastern nations. The key message is clear: if Iran is unable to export its oil freely, then neither will anyone else in the region.
Many might overlook the significance of this position, which not only calls for the end of the U.S. blockade but also the lifting of sanctions, as stipulated in the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). The MOU explicitly calls for a “termination” of sanctions—not merely a temporary waiver that could be easily revoked. This stance underscores Iran’s demand for complete U.S. capitulation, something the United States appears reluctant to concede.
While it’s plausible that Iran may soften its stance due to the worldwide economic turmoil that could ensue from maintaining its uncompromising position—especially under pressure from China and Russia—there is a strong likelihood that Iran will continue its assaults on U.S. bases and assets in the Gulf region.
Although the U.S. seems poised to escalate its military involvement, media coverage of these developments has notably diminished. This waning attention persists even as the Ansar Allah movement intensifies its economic pressures by blockading Saudi shipping routes through the Red Sea. Recent attacks on two tankers have prompted slight increases in oil prices and garnered headlines in major financial outlets like the Financial Times.
We will delve deeper into potential U.S. actions and also address the misconception regarding Pickaxe Mountain being a nuclear enrichment site (it has been inaccurately reported that Iran is housing enriched uranium and centrifuges there).
Let’s first examine the latest threats exchanged between Trump and Iranian officials:
The Iranian response was swift. Chief negotiator MB Ghalibaf stated on Twitter:
The dynamics of this war are clear: it’s all or nothing!
In a region where we cannot sell oil, no one else will be able to either. If our security is compromised, no infrastructure will be safe; the security of the strait hinges on the absence of American forces. We have consistently warned that conditions in the strait will not revert to pre-war status.
Additionally, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei remarked:
The continuous U.S. threats and attacks on our peaceful nuclear facilities not only violate the fundamental principles of the UN Charter and international law, but they also reveal a longstanding U.S. animosity toward Iran’s scientific achievements.
Iran’s nuclear activities are fully reported to the IAEA in compliance with its safeguards obligations. The focus on Kolang Kouh, where no nuclear activity is occurring, is merely a fabricated excuse for American aggression and sabotage.
Furthermore, where is the Director General of the IAEA, who is also a candidate for UN Secretary-General? The Iranian people stand firm, united and ready to confront any U.S. hostility or violation of our sovereignty and national security.
Iran has declared that any seizure of an Iranian vessel by the U.S. as part of its naval blockade will be met with a retaliatory strike on a regional energy infrastructure target. This could drive gasoline prices in the U.S. up to $5 per gallon!
— Mahdi Khanalizadeh (@Khanalizadeh_EN) July 22, 2026
Iran continues to issue warnings. According to Al Jazeera’s live feed:
Iran warns of ‘new strategies’ if U.S. attacks on southern infrastructure continue
Brigadier General Amir Mohammad Akraminia, spokesman for Iran’s army, indicated that Iranian security forces will adopt new strategies to deter U.S. aggression if attacks on southern infrastructure persist.
“With the violation of the memorandum of understanding by the U.S., we are entering a new phase of the conflict,” he told Iran’s Defence Press. He added that Iranian forces would continue retaliatory strikes as long as U.S. attacks on its infrastructure and coastal areas persist.
Concerns are growing regarding the worsening energy crisis due to the Ansar Allah blockade, which has curtailed Saudi supply through the Yanbu port to 4.9 million barrels per day. The lead story in the Financial Times reads:
A spokesperson for the Yemeni group stated that they utilized missiles and drones to target ships Encelia and Layla, accusing them of violating the maritime embargo in the Red Sea.
The Houthis also declared a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia while threatening to reignite a decade-long conflict.
The Saudi state news agency confirmed that one of the tankers, Encelia, was attacked, resulting in a fire at the vessel’s bow, although the crew was unharmed.
Multiple tankers transporting Saudi crude through the Red Sea have altered their courses after the Houthis issued radio warnings.
Bloomberg’s homepage featured this news as well:
From Houthis Open New Front in Iran War by Targeting Ships in Red Sea:
Washington conducted its 12th consecutive day of airstrikes on Iranian military installations, focusing on missile and air-defence facilities. Iranian forces retaliated by targeting U.S. bases in Kuwait and Jordan.
While the skirmishes show no signs of de-escalation, with both sides standing firm, the attacks by the Houthis have exacerbated tensions, reinforcing the conflict.
The Red Sea is becoming crucial for crude exports, especially for Saudi Arabia, as the Yanbu port serves as a primary channel, allowing the country to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, where vessel traffic has significantly diminished.
In a pivotal update from CNN regarding shipping insurance:
Insurance firms may cancel policies for ships that pay tolls to Iran or any other nation for transiting the Strait of Hormuz. According to the Lloyd’s Market Association, insurers can disclaim liability for any such payments if ships pay tolls to Iran or its affiliates, potentially voiding the insurance policy.
The LMA stated that this clause would blanket policies regarding tolls so that agents don’t need to trace where the money is ultimately going. This may also apply to the U.S., as President Trump had briefly suggested toll imposition before retracting that notion.
However, LMA’s guidance can be interpreted flexibly by agents and shipping companies while drafting their policies.
As Iran is expected to impose tolls after the MOU expires on August 17, it remains to be seen how many shipping companies will comply. The insurers that previously operated during the conflict might not be easily deterred.
At present, the Ansar Allah blockade has exempted Chinese-flagged vessels:
A Chinese-flagged oil tanker has recently navigated through the Bab el-Mandeb strait carrying 2 million barrels of Saudi oil. Another Chinese tanker is also set to follow. Currently, the Houthis are enforcing their blockade variably based on the ship’s flag. https://t.co/imG6WBVPXM
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) July 23, 2026
Additionally, from The Cradle on Twitter:
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reported that a tanker caught fire while attempting to traverse a mined route in the Strait of Hormuz, asserting that the waterway remains under their control and is “completely closed” as long as U.S. activities persist. They warned that any vessel attempting to pass without coordination with Iran would face severe consequences.
Bloomberg’s homepage featured a cautionary video warning further volatility:
In the transcript of Oil Market Is ‘Out of Buffers’: McNally, he speculated that the next phase of the conflict could be more intense. He highlighted that there could be oil prices reaching between $100 to $110 in a few weeks due to a potential shortage as essential refinery maintenance approaches, with the risk of unexpected outages further complicating matters.
The key takeaway is that Bloomberg’s coverage amplified these perspectives, indicating growing concern around oil market vulnerabilities.
Recent insights provided by the U.S. Department of Energy suggest that the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve could go much lower than previously thought. As reported, the true operational minimum could be as low as 70 million barrels, markedly beneath the formerly understood limits. Currently, the SPR has about 246 million barrels left and has diminished over 104 million barrels since the onset of U.S. military operations against Iran.
On the frontline, Douglas Macgregor discussed military escalation with Mario Nawfal, offering a skeptical view on U.S. war hawk intentions. He predicts that without external pressure, the conflict will remain episodic.
[Detailed insights drawn from further transcripts will be available shortly.]
Janta Ka’s recent update touches on why the portrayal of Pickaxe Mountain as a nuclear site lacks credibility.
[A video link follows for further context.]
From a lightly edited machine transcript:
Jawaid: The dubious intention behind this narrative is for the Trump administration to justify military action against Iran, as direct military engagement might be unfeasible.
CNN [Wolf Blitzer]: How concerning is the report about Iran moving advanced centrifuges and enriched uranium to an underground facility?
Brett McGurk, former National Security Council: If true, this site, called Pickaxe Mountain near Natanz, raises significant alarm about Iran’s ability to enrich uranium beyond what’s permissible.
Jawaid: Thankfully, some voices in the U.S. are countering these absurd claims.
Robert Kelly, former chief nuclear inspector: We need to clarify that the claims presented by Israeli intelligence are not based on solid evidence, but rather appear to be designed to mislead.
The House recently passed a significant defense spending bill, allocating $1.5 trillion to the Pentagon while also facilitating closer military ties with Israel. While the Senate may present resistance, this measure reflects a concerning trend towards merging U.S. defense with foreign military objectives:
Regrettably, the House just voted to amalgamate sensitive elements of our military defense apparatus with that of a foreign nation.
This bill still requires passage in the Senate.
Contact your senators and representatives to register your opposition to the NDAA until appropriate changes are made. https://t.co/32IS8zX8hx
— Joe Kent (@joekent16jan19) July 22, 2026
For further advocacy points, former Lieutenant Colonel Karen Kwaitkowski criticized this shift vehemently:
In this brief transcript, she expressed deep concerns regarding the implications of closer U.S.-Israeli military integration, arguing that it undermines American values.
A cursory examination of Trump’s recent nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia reveals significant flaws:
The U.S.–Saudi nuclear deal reflects a weaker American bargaining position, not a stronger one.
China’s influence necessitated concessions from the U.S. to retain Saudi allegiance, yet Washington’s overall leverage has diminished.
This represents a remarkable victory for Saudi Arabia.
Historically, Riyadh has achieved unprecedented concessions, indicating a significant shift in negotiations.
Moreover, the deal simultaneously complicates negotiations with Iran regarding its nuclear program, as it undermines previous U.S. talking points about permissible enrichment limitations.
As the hostilities persist, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has announced additional strikes on U.S. targets in Jordan and has taken responsibility for the destruction of American military assets, indicating no signs of de-escalation from either party:
Iran claims more assaults on Jordan
The IRGC asserted that it has successfully targeted American military radar and infrastructure in Jordan, signaling its intent to confront U.S. operations directly.
Moreover, various details coming to light reveal the escalating seriousness of U.S. military operations in the region.
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The United States commits to terminating all sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including resolutions from the United Nations Security Council and unilateral U.S. sanctions, in an agreed-upon timeline as part of the final agreement. Both the U.S. and Iran recognize the critical need to address the sanctions issue to achieve mutual agreement.
2 If only the U.S. would take a lesson from felines. Iran might be more amenable if the U.S. took a more strategic step back:
As one commenter insightfully put it, “I admire how cats do their pre-fight banter.”
