Categories Finance

The Capital Spectator: Investing, Asset Allocation, and Economic Insights

Last week saw a recovery in the US equity market, with stocks gaining after two consecutive weeks of decline. This resurgence surpassed the performance of other major asset classes, as determined by a variety of exchange-traded products.
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US officials state that investment in North Korea is feasible after denuclearization: Bloomberg
US is ready to impose sanctions on European firms in Iran: WSJ
Gaza protests intensify before the US opens its embassy in Jerusalem: Reuters
Trump shifts stance, providing assistance to ZTE, a Chinese electronics company: NY Times
Cleveland Fed President hints that rates may exceed 3%: MarketWatch
St Louis Fed President warns of possible yield curve inversion by September: MNI
US import prices increased less than expected in April: CNBC
US consumer sentiment remains stable at a high level in May: MarketWatch

Investing for the Long Term
By Francisco Parames
Summary via publisher (Wiley)
Renowned investor Francisco García Paramés shares his insights and strategies for making smart investment decisions in this essential guide for those looking to enhance their portfolio. The book is divided into two sections. The first part consists of three chapters that detail Paramés’ educational background, his initial experiences as a solo investor, and the collaboration that followed in 2003. The second section outlines the foundational principles of his investment philosophy. It begins with a chapter on Austrian economics, which he considers the most logical approach to the field, offering significant benefits throughout his career. This is followed by an explanation of the necessity of investing in tangible assets, particularly stocks, to preserve the purchasing power of one’s savings, actively steering clear of fixed income instruments.
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Recent news articles highlighting the April consumer inflation report indicate that the monthly increase did not meet the expected forecasts. Some analysts are citing this cooler-than-anticipated data as a reason for the Federal Reserve to potentially scale back its plans for interest rate hikes. However, when taking into account the annual inflation rate and the latest GDP growth predictions for the second quarter, it might be premature to assume the central bank will alter its recent strategy of implementing three to four rate increases this year.
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ISIS remains a threat ahead of Iraq’s elections this Saturday: USA Today
Iran affirms Syria’s right to retaliate against Israeli attacks: Reuters
Oil is on track for its second weekly gain amidst escalating tensions in the Middle East: Bloomberg
Are we witnessing Trump stepping into a trap with the upcoming North Korea summit? Politico
US jobless claims remain low, hovering near a 49-year low: MW
US consumer inflation rose to a 2.5% annual rate in April: Reuters
Bank of England keeps interest rates steady: Independent
The US stock market rally continues, with the S&P 500 nearing a two-month high: Reuters

While predicting recessions can be incredibly challenging, one can always count on a surge of warnings proclaiming that a downturn is imminent. I periodically assess recent examples (here’s last year’s update and its 2016 predecessor) and feel it’s time for another review on how analysts consistently convince themselves that an economic contraction is looming.
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Israel targets Iranian positions in Syria with missiles: BBC
Trump meets with three Americans released by North Korea: The Hill
Analysts suggest Trump’s Iran decision mirrors the build-up to the Iraq war: Reuters
Saudi Arabia plans to develop nuclear weapons if Iran does: CNN
China stands to gain if the West isolates Iran: Bloomberg
US wholesale inflation for April eased to 2.6% year-on-year, down from 3.0%: MarketWatch
A measure of US wholesale trade continued to rise in March: CNBC
Atlanta Fed President states inflation is “already effectively on target”: MNI
US companies face a significant $4 trillion refinancing challenge: Bloomberg

The approach of prioritizing lower-priced stocks over higher-priced ones has struggled in recent years, prompting some investors to abandon this value-oriented strategy. However, recent reports suggest that a turnaround may be on the horizon for this investment style.
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Trump withdraws the US from the Iran nuclear agreement: CBS
Ending the Iran nuclear deal might have negative repercussions on the US economy: Bloomberg
European leaders attempt to save the Iran nuclear agreement: Reuters
The Kim-Xi talks suggest China may play a crucial role ahead of the North Korea meeting with Trump: AP
Trump’s attorney, Cohen, was contracted by a US affiliate of a Russian company: WaPo
AT&T confirms it paid Cohen for insights on Trump’s administration: CNBC
UK retail sales plunged in April: Bloomberg
The House of Lords urges the UK to maintain its place in the EU’s single market: BBC
Small Business Optimism in the US rises, nearing record highs in April: NFIB
US job openings hit a record 6.55 million in March: MarketWatch

For the first time in eight months, the inflation-adjusted base money (also known as M0) in the US contracted in March, reflecting a 3.7% decrease compared to the previous year. This downturn comes at a time when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicates that markets should brace for gradual interest rate increases in the near future.
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