Trump cancels North Korea meeting, potentially benefiting China: NY Times
Taiwan scrambles jets as Chinese bombers circle the island: Reuters
EU official states UK is “chasing a fantasy” in Brexit negotiations: Guardian
Revised UK GDP data for Q1 shows sluggish growth at +0.1%: Bloomberg
Mexican president expresses optimism with new NAFTA proposal: Reuters
Big tech companies face significant lawsuits as Europe’s new data protection regulations come into effect: CNN
ECB minutes indicate that eurozone growth may slow further: Reuters
US existing home sales decline in April; negative year-over-year change for the second month: Builder
US jobless claims rise to a seven-week high: MarketWatch
Kansas City Fed’s Manufacturing Index reaches a new record high in May: KC Fed
The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season is projected to be near- or above-normal: NOAA
The Federal Reserve is willing to allow inflation to exceed its two-percent target, as indicated by the minutes of its recent policy meeting. The bond market seems to be responding positively to this news: the implied inflation forecast, derived from the yield spread between nominal and inflation-indexed Treasuries, dipped yesterday, hitting its lowest level in more than a month for the ten-year maturities. Meanwhile, investors remain optimistic that the central bank will proceed with further interest rate hikes, potentially including one at next month’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. This suggests that a phase of cautious tightening will be in effect.
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North Korea raises doubts about its summit with the US: MarketWatch
Trump considers new tariffs on auto imports into the US: CNN Money
US excludes China from naval exercises: Politico
New US home sales decreased in April, yet remain higher on a year-over-year basis: MW
Fed minutes suggest officials will allow inflation to exceed their 2% target: CNBC
US initiates an investigation into Bitcoin price manipulation: Bloomberg
US economic activity strengthened, reaching a three-month high in May: IHS Markit
The US stock market has experienced a turbulent start to 2018, but technology shares continue to outperform in the major equity sectors, as illustrated by a range of exchange-traded funds up to May 22.
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Trump expresses uncertainty about the US-North Korea summit: CNN
Trump hints at possible tax cuts before the November elections: MarketWatch
Republican senators express skepticism about Trump’s trade negotiations with China: The Hill
Fed’s Mester anticipates a potential rise in inflation: MNI
Eurozone growth declines to a one-and-a-half-year low in May: IHS Markit
Americans report improved financial situations in recent Fed survey: Reuters
Richmond Fed manufacturing index shows a recovery in May: Richmond Fed
US employment optimism hits a record high: Gallup
US gasoline prices rise to their highest level since late 2014:
The Global Market Index (GMI)—a market-value-weighted portfolio consisting of the major asset classes—is projected to achieve an annualized 4.9% risk premium (return above the “risk-free” rate) over the long term, based on analyses of data up to April 2018.
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South Korea’s president scheduled to meet Trump on Tuesday for North Korea discussions: CNN
US strengthens missile defenses in East Asia in anticipation of the North Korea summit: Reuters
Trump backs down from imposing tariffs on China: Bloomberg
US demands Iran alter its policies or face economic sanctions: Reuters
Goldman Sachs’ chief economist expresses concern about US fiscal outlook: CNBC
Philadelphia Fed president supports two to three interest rate hikes for the remainder of 2018: Reuters
Minneapolis Fed president cautions against aggressive rate hikes: MW
Atlanta Fed president believes the Fed is close to meeting its inflation and employment goals: Reuters
Chicago Fed National Activity Index shows the three-month average for April has risen to a 2018 high: Chicago Fed
Markets faced a downturn last week across nearly all major asset classes, with commodities being the sole exception, according to a range of exchange-traded products.
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Iran claims European support for the nuclear deal is inadequate: Reuters
Trump reconsidering his meeting with North Korea’s leader: The Hill
Trump demands an investigation into the surveillance tactics used in the Russia probe: CNN
Mueller expected to conclude obstruction inquiry into Trump by September 1: NY Times
Treasury Secretary announces US will pause tariffs on China during negotiations: LA Times
China conducts bomber tests in the South China Sea: CNN
Venezuela’s Maduro claims victory in elections amidst accusations of vote rigging: BBC
JP Morgan’s Dimon describes rising yields alongside economic growth as “normalization”: Bloomberg
NY Fed adjusts US Q2 GDP forecast upward to +3.2%: NY Fed
The New Science of Cause and Effect
By Judea Pearl and Dana Mackenzie
Summary via publisher (Basic Books)
“Correlation does not imply causation.” This well-known adage, repeated by scientists for over a century, has resulted in a virtual prohibition on discussing causes. However, that taboo is now lifted. The causal revolution, led by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, clarifies a century of confusion and firmly establishes the study of cause and effect. His work illustrates how we can determine simple facts, such as whether rain or a sprinkler made the sidewalk wet, as well as more complex inquiries about whether a drug resulted in a cure. Pearl’s research enables exploration not just of what causes what, but also of potential alternatives to what actually occurred, highlighting a fundamental aspect of human thought and a crucial element for artificial intelligence.
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