The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting indicate that policymakers are open to postponing further hikes in interest rates, largely due to the persistence of low and stable inflation. This raises the question of whether the upcoming consumer inflation index (CPI) report for December will reinforce expectations for a pause in the Fed’s recent tightening of monetary policy.
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The partial government shutdown is entering its fourth week as negotiations falter: The Hill
Trump may declare a national emergency to fund the wall that Democrats refuse to finance: WSJ
The Democratic-led House has passed a bill to restart the Treasury, IRS, and SBA: The Hill
North Korea’s Kim is reportedly preparing for a second meeting with Trump: BBC
Per the Fed minutes, the Fed “can afford to be patient” about future rate hikes: CNBC
The US withdrawal from Syria will take longer than Trump suggested: CNN
Analysts noted progress during the latest US-China trade discussions: CNBC
Could the US economic expansion simply expire with age? Bloomberg
The VIX Index fell Wednesday to its lowest close since December 4:
The Federal Reserve’s recent series of interest rate hikes is expected to come to a halt in 2019, according to calculations of Fed funds futures. Following four increases in 2018 and a total of nine hikes since the tightening cycle began in 2015, market participants are currently predicting that the Fed will maintain the status quo for the year ahead, as indicated by CME data.
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In a televised address, Trump called for a border wall: Reuters
House Democrats plan to challenge Republicans with a bill to reopen the government: Reuters
The World Bank anticipates a slowdown in global growth to 2.9% in 2019: Reuters
Signs of progress have emerged from US-China trade talks: WSJ
The Eurozone unemployment rate fell to 7.9% in December, the lowest since 2008: Eurostat
The government shutdown is negatively impacting the housing market, according to Realtors: Bloomberg
Consumer credit growth remained robust in November: MW
The US Small Business Optimism Index dropped to its lowest level since 2016 in December: WSJ
Eurozone economic sentiment fell to a two-year low in December: RTT
Weak industrial output in Germany has sparked concerns about a potential recession: CNBC
November saw a decline in US job openings, although they remain at high levels: Reuters
It remains uncertain if the recent recovery in US equities will push the S&P 500 Index to new record highs. What is clear is that the market has experienced a notable rebound thus far. Over the eight trading days since the low point following Christmas Eve, where the S&P’s current downturn ended, the index has risen by an impressive 8.4%. However, a substantial climb still lies ahead for the index to reclaim the ground lost since its previous apex on September 20. To reach that height, the index must soar approximately 15% over the close on January 7.
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Trump will address the nation Tuesday night regarding the border wall issue: Fox
The partial government shutdown is beginning to have repercussions across the US economy: NY Times
House GOP leaders suggest waning support for Trump’s shutdown strategy: Politico
Analysts warn that the risk of a US recession is growing unless the US-China trade war ends: CNBC
There are hints of progress in US-China trade negotiations: Bloomberg
North Korea’s Kim traveled to China for discussions with President Xi: Reuters
Samsung is the second tech giant to feel the impact of a softening Chinese economy: Bloomberg
China’s economic growth has reportedly dipped below the crucial 6% threshold, according to analysts: CNBC
Small-cap stocks are gaining attention as safe havens amidst struggles in big-cap stocks: WSJ
US job openings are increasingly outpacing available workers: Reuters
Germany’s struggling industrial sector raises the risk of recession: Bloomberg
The US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index shows growth slowed to a five-month low in December: MW
A significant rally on Friday contributed to price increases across various global markets via several exchange-traded products. With the exception of US real estate investment trusts (REITs), all the major asset classes ended the trading week on January 4 with gains.
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Bolton, during his visit to Israel, moderates Trump’s desire for a rapid exit from Syria: Politico
A US Navy ship has sailed near disputed islands in the South China Sea: Reuters
The partial government shutdown is now tied for the third longest in history, with no end in sight: USA Today
Fed Chairman Powell indicates a potential pause in rate hikes for 2019: WSJ
Fed’s Mester: Persistently low inflation could halt rate hikes: CNBC
Survey data indicates global growth slowed to a 27-month low in December: IHS Markit
US Services PMI signals ‘solid’ growth in December: IHS Markit
Eurozone growth has slowed to its lowest rate in over four years, according to PMI data: IHS Markit
Retail spending in Europe increased more than expected in November: Reuters
Eurozone inflation has declined to its slowest annual pace in eight months: FT
US wages have risen by 3.2% in December compared to the previous year, marking the fastest growth since 2009: Bloomberg
The surge in US payrolls in December suggests that recession risks are low: MW
By Bruce I. Jacobs
Summary via publisher (McGraw-Hill Education)
Financial crises are frequently attributed to unforeseeable events, the unforgiving nature of capital markets, or sheer bad luck. “Too Smart for Our Own Good” posits that these crises stem from specific appealing investment strategies that promise both high returns and capital safety. In essence, the severe and wide-ranging crises experienced in recent decades were not mere accidents; they were human-made. By grasping how and why this occurs, it may be possible to sidestep or mitigate future crises — and perhaps even predict them.
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According to the latest update from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, companies significantly ramped up hiring in December. This unexpectedly robust increase in private-sector employment suggests that the economic outlook may be more optimistic than what the stock market, which has suffered significant declines lately, indicates.
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This revised article maintains the original HTML structure while enhancing readability and flow, providing a clearer, more engaging narrative for readers.
