By Richard Thomas Curtin
Summary via publisher (Cambridge University Press)
For over four decades, Richard Curtin has led the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment surveys, with his insights on consumer expectations frequently featured in global media. In this book, he introduces a transformative theory regarding expectations. Unlike traditional models that view consumers as passive participants, reacting solely to existing trends in income, prices, and interest rates, Curtin offers an innovative, empirically backed theory. He posits that consumer expectations are molded through an automatic process that combines conscious and subconscious thought, a blend of emotion and logic, information from various sources, and social interactions. Ultimately, decisions made by consumers address both individual needs and broader macroeconomic influences. Through real-world observations, Curtin highlights the critical role of consumer sentiment, illustrating its power to predict economic turning points.
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What does “irrational exuberance” really mean? There’s no single definition, nor are there infallible indicators for predicting financial market trends. However, current trend data from major asset classes—assessed via a selection of exchange-traded funds—indicates that the existing rally might be overstretched for global diversification strategies.
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Negotiators from China and the US are working towards an agreement to resolve the trade war: Bloomberg
The UK was set to exit the EU today, but that plan has been delayed… for now: CNN
German retail sales exceeded expectations in February: Reuters
Japanese industrial output increased in February, marking the first rise in four months: NHK
The state of the US economy could heavily influence President Trump’s chances for re-election: NY Times
US Q4 GDP growth has been revised down from 2.6% to a more moderate 2.2%: Reuters
Pending Home Sales Index for the US fell in February, even with lower mortgage rates: CNBC
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index shows first growth uptick in March after four months: KC Fed
US jobless claims dropped last week, nearing a 50-year low, indicating a strong labor market: MW
Last year’s slowdown in US economic activity during the latter half is anticipated to affect the first quarter of 2019, though current indicators suggest a potential stabilization of that decline. Recent data across various metrics indicates that the negative trend appears to have paused, at least for the moment, based on the information released so far. While it remains uncertain whether output will see a rebound, the current economic landscape points towards a gradual but steady growth trajectory in the near term.
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President Trump cautions Russia to withdraw its military presence from Venezuela: NY Times
US officials claim China has made an unprecedented offer during trade negotiations: Reuters
Republican senators warn Trump that the trade war with China could lead to a recession: Politico
The Brexit situation continues to create turmoil in the UK as Prime Minister May offers to resign: BBC
India successfully tests its anti-missile capability, entering an elite group of nations: CNN
Several Federal Reserve officials assert that it is premature to consider cutting interest rates: WSJ
The US trade deficit significantly narrowed in January but remains high: MW
US current account deficit reached a decade high in Q4: Reuters
The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds dropped to 2.41% on Wednesday, the lowest since December 2017: CNBC
Recent forecasts for US economic activity in the first quarter continue to indicate a downturn. Projections suggest that output in the first quarter of 2019 is poised to decelerate for the third consecutive quarter.
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In Europe, new copyright regulations challenge major tech companies: CNN
Fed nominee Stephen Moore advocates for an immediate reduction in interest rates: Reuters
Credit Suisse’s global Chief Investment Officer predicts a slowdown and potential recession: CNBC
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index indicates a slight increase in manufacturing activity for March: Richmond Fed
US housing prices experienced their smallest increase in four years as of January: CNBC
The US Consumer Sentiment Index dropped significantly in March: MW
The trend for US housing starts has been negative for five consecutive months as of February:
Last Friday’s significant market drop unsettled investor sentiment. However, according to US equity factor ETFs, the positive trend for the year-to-date remains unbroken across all sectors.
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The Trump administration intensifies efforts to dismantle Obamacare: Bloomberg
Gulf states oppose the US’s recognition of Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights: Reuters
UK Parliament is taking charge of the Brexit process: WSJ
Former Fed Chair Yellen suggests that the inverted yield curve indicates a need for a rate cut: CNBC
Apple unveils plans for transformation into a services provider: Slate
The Pentagon has allocated $1 billion for the construction of the US-Mexico border wall: CNN
Turkey plans to investigate JP Morgan for “misleading” investment recommendations: NY Times
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index indicates stable output, although demand seems to be slowing: HC
Chicago Fed National Activity Index’s 3-month average hit a 28-month low in February:
Last week saw a notable increase in fixed income as global investors turned to bonds, driven by concerns regarding the economic outlook. Consequently, US and international stocks dropped sharply in a selloff that occurred on March 22, as indicated by various exchange-traded funds monitoring major asset classes.
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In summarizing the provided article, I aimed to enhance its readability while preserving its essential structure and details. Each section covers key economic observations, recent trends, and notable events, backed up by references for further reading. The content remains informative for those interested in current economic commentary and analysis.
