Morningstar has explored the specialized sector of publicly traded tactical-allocation funds and found that the outcomes are, at best, average. A recent analysis by The Capital Spectator mirrored this observation with a focus on a small number of tactically oriented ETFs. Let’s revisit the findings and assess any recent changes.
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China and the US report progress in trade discussions: Bloomberg
Trump appoints former pizza chain executive to the Fed board: NY Times
Economists forecast a rebound in the employment report for March: Reuters
Trump steps back from the threat to close the US-Mexico border: LA Times
Philippine president issues a warning to Beijing regarding actions in the South China Sea: CNN
German industrial output increased in February, but manufacturing components declined: Reuters
US job cuts in the first quarter reached their highest level since Q3 2015: CG&C
US jobless claims dropped to a 50-year low last week: CNBC
The 2019 bull market has positively impacted every sector, judging by a selection of exchange-traded funds that cover the world’s major equity regions. China continues to lead the pack, and even the underperformer, Latin America, is seeing commendable gains.
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Trump is set to meet with China’s Vice Premier and may announce plans for a summit: MW
Oil and gasoline prices are rising faster than anticipated: CNBC
ICE executes the largest workplace immigration raid in a decade in Texas: NBC
German factory orders plummeted in February: Bloomberg
Economic forecasts for Germany have been significantly downgraded for 2019: Bloomberg
Bank of England’s Carney states that a no-deal Brexit risk is ‘alarmingly high’: MNI
Demographic changes are becoming a significant economic challenge for the US: NY Times
Global growth rose to a four-month high in March, according to survey data: IHS Markit
Growth in the US services sector eased in March, based on PMI and ISM data.
Private-sector job growth in the US continued to slow in March: ADP
After a brief period in second place, technology shares have regained their position as the top-performing US equity sector in 2019, based on a review of a variety of exchange-traded funds. The resurgence of technology began in early March, pushing industrial stocks to a second place.
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Senate Leader McConnell tells Trump: We won’t be repealing Obamacare: The Hill
Republicans and business groups urge Trump against closing the US-Mexico border: WSJ
The US and China are reportedly nearing a trade agreement: CNBC
A Chinese woman was arrested at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort: Reuters
World Trade Organization warns that the slowdown in global trade from 2018 is expected to persist: Reuters
UK’s May will meet with opposition leaders to discuss potential Brexit solutions: BBC
Eurozone Composite PMI indicates slow growth persisted in March: IHS Markit
Activities in China’s service sector experienced a significant uptick, reaching a 14-month high in March: Reuters
Is the Fed fueling a financial bubble? Bloomberg
US durable goods orders and business investment show weakening one-year trends in February:
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) rose again in March, now estimated at an annualized return of 4.7%. This incremental increase surpasses the 4.6% forecast mentioned in last month’s analysis. The latest GMI figure (which is a market-value-weighted portfolio excluding cash) provides insight into the expected premium over the anticipated “risk-free” rate in the long run.
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Trump is reportedly edging closer to the decision to close the US-Mexico border: CNN
The S&P 500 rally brought the index to just 2% shy of its all-time high: CNBC
Delays are anticipated in US-EU trade talks: Bloomberg
Another Brexit vote fails in the UK Parliament: BBC
New policies in Mexico are contributing to a surge in migrants from Central America: NY Times
Global Manufacturing PMI remained steady in March, indicating weak growth: IHS Markit
Mixed signals: US Manufacturing PMI dropped to its lowest since 2017 while ISM Manufacturing rose to a nine-month high
US construction spending increased in February, marking the third consecutive monthly gain: MW
Signs of declining demand? Business inventories grew more than sales in the US: Reuters
A surprising dip in US retail sales in February has contributed to a muted one-year trend:
Property shares significantly outperformed other major asset classes in March. International real estate stocks led the growth, closely followed by US-based property-linked stocks. The only segments experiencing declines last month were foreign high-yield bonds, bonds from emerging markets, and a broad category of commodities. Otherwise, the January recovery in asset prices continued through March.
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Taiwan scrambles jets following a perceived provocation from China’s air force: CNN
A comedian has won the initial round of voting in Ukraine’s presidential election: BBC
Turkey’s lira has fallen following significant losses for the president’s party in recent elections: CNBC
Russia’s military influence is increasing in Africa: NY Times
China’s manufacturing sector unexpectedly expanded in March, according to recent surveys: CNBC
Eurozone manufacturing survey data shows that the sector’s contraction worsened in March: IHS Markit
Fed’s Kashkari advises against cutting rates, at least for now: WSJ
A busy week of US data updates will test the economy’s resilience: Bloomberg
The Chicago area business barometer has recorded its lowest quarterly average in two years: Chicago PMI
New US home sales increased in February, reaching an 11-month high: MW
Consumer Sentiment Index for the US showed an improvement in March: UoM
US consumer spending’s one-year trend in January showed its slowest growth in over two years:
### Conclusion
In reviewing these diverse developments from April 2019, it is evident that various sectors are navigating challenges and opportunities. The intersection of economic trends, corporate decisions, and international relations continues to shape the landscape of global markets. Keeping abreast of these changes is paramount for informed decision-making for investors and analysts alike.
