The pace of economic growth in the United States has decelerated, yet indicators suggest that the broader trend may be stabilizing, hinting that this recent slowdown is unlikely to precipitate an immediate recession. However, the current expansion shows signs of increasing vulnerability. Another unexpected economic shock could potentially tip the scales. For now, the data reflects a prevailing trend of slow growth.
Are US-China trade negotiations at a standstill? WSJ
China criticizes the US after the Senate approves a bill supporting Hong Kong protesters: CNBC
Analysts caution against neglecting the escalating US-Europe trade conflict: MW
Weaker earnings from retailers raise concerns about consumer spending this holiday season: WSJ
Gordon Sondland is a key witness in today’s impeachment hearings: Reuters
All eyes are on Lagarde’s first policy speech as the ECB’s president this Friday: BBG
Israel conducts airstrikes in Syria: Reuters
Although the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Q4 GDP estimate increased slightly, a projected growth of just +0.4% remains concerning.
US housing starts saw an 8.5% rise in October compared to the previous year:
The US stock market indicates a notably positive economic outlook. On Monday, November 18, the S&P 500 Index achieved another record high, marking its fifth consecutive day of gains. Echoing this optimistic sentiment from Wall Street, Goldman Sachs’ chief equity strategist anticipates improvement in the sluggish US economy throughout 2020.
The US has shifted its policy to support Israeli settlements in the West Bank: WSJ
Democrats release new transcripts ahead of today’s impeachment hearings: The Hill
Fed Chairman Powell had a meeting with Trump on Monday: USA Today
Pimco states that the US and China may finalize a ‘phase one’ trade deal before Christmas: CNBC
Goldman Sachs projects an uptick in US economic growth in 2020: CNBC
US home builder confidence remains close to post-recession highs in November: CNBC
Last week, US real estate investment trusts (REITs) surged, reporting the highest gains among all major asset classes according to a series of exchange-traded funds. US REITs also continue to outshine global markets, boasting the best one-year performance as well.
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Progress in US-China trade negotiations appears to be emerging: Bloomberg
China is advancing its efforts to reduce reliance on the US dollar: CNBC
US industrial production fell more significantly than anticipated in October: Reuters
Import prices in the US continued their decline in October: MarketWatch
US retail sales experienced a rebound in October: MW
The NY Fed Manufacturing Index shows that slow growth persists in November: NY Fed
The nowcasts for US Q4 GDP have seen considerable downgrades from both the Atlanta Fed and NY Fed
According to the latest ADS Index, US economic growth has notably slowed: Philly Fed
By Richard Robb
Summary via publisher (Yale University Press)
What drives our decisions? The traditional economic perspective posits that we act rationally to optimize our preferences. However, behaviorists argue that we often rely on mental shortcuts and existing biases. Richard Robb contends that neither viewpoint fully explains our actions performed for their own sake. He introduces a category of behavior he terms “for-itself,” which encompasses decisions made without apparent rationale, suggesting that omitting these choices leaves our understanding of decision-making incomplete.
The technology sector has demonstrated strong performance throughout much of the year; recently, its outperformance compared to other major US equity sectors has intensified, as shown by various exchange-traded funds.
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Washington prepares for the resumption of impeachment hearings today: The Hill
The White House economic advisor claims the US and China are nearing a trade agreement: Reuters
Hong Kong has slipped into recession amid ongoing protests: BBC
Global debt has soared to new heights in the first half of 2019: CNBC
Solid sales growth at Walmart suggests robust US consumer spending: WSJ
The bull market in US equities is the longest on record, according to the Leuthold Group: CNBC
Are you aware of what’s in your bond fund’s portfolio? A new study reveals that many funds are misrepresenting their holdings, suggesting that one or more of the bond mutual funds in your possession could be riskier than you realize.
As the economic landscape evolves, various factors come into play that shape growth trajectories and market performances. Understanding the current state of the economy, international trade relations, and investment trends is essential for navigating future developments.
In summary, while the US economy exhibits signs of stabilization amidst slower growth, uncertainties remain. Global trade tensions and domestic economic indicators will continue to play a pivotal role in shaping the economic outlook. Staying informed and vigilant can help investors and policymakers make better decisions in the face of these challenges.
