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The Capital Spectator: Investing, Asset Allocation & Economics Insights

In recent news, Nancy Pelosi has called Congress back into session to address ongoing issues with the Postal Service: Politico
Following protests, the leader of Belarus has indicated a willingness to share power: Reuters
South Korea is raising alarms over a new outbreak of coronavirus: Reuters
The economic recovery in Europe seems to be losing steam: BBG
Warren Buffett’s investment in gold mining shares raises questions about his outlook on the economy: MW
California struggles with electricity demand during a heatwave: WSJ
Japan’s GDP experienced its most significant decline in the second quarter: CNN
Retail spending in the US rebounded in July, but growth has slowed: CNBC
Consumer sentiment in the US remains near its pandemic low for August: MW
Scientists are discovering positive signs of developing Covid-19 immunity: NYT

The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to a two-month high last week:

The Riches of This Land: The Untold, True Story of America’s Middle Class
Jim Tankersley
Summary via publisher (Public Affairs)
For over a decade, Jim Tankersley has been on a quest to understand what happened to the prosperity of America’s middle class that flourished post-World War II but has faced stagnation and frustration for decades. In The Riches of This Land, he intertwines the narratives of overlooked Americans—those struggling individuals and families he encountered on his journey—with vital economic and political research. This work sheds light on how to foster broader prosperity and begins to unravel the true mystery of the American economy since the 1970s—not where jobs disappeared, but why new and better jobs have not emerged to replace them.

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An old saying in Wall Street holds that the market can remain irrational longer than an investor can stay solvent. Recent years have certainly put this adage to the test, particularly through the unusual outperformance of growth stocks over value stocks, the dominance of large-cap over small-cap, and U.S. stocks outpacing foreign markets.

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Discussions about stimulus packages in Congress are currently stalled over a $1 trillion aid proposal for states: BBG
In a significant geopolitical move, Israel and the UAE have signed a historic agreement: AC
The US has seized an Iranian oil cargo as part of its sanctions enforcement: WSJ
Trump is withholding coronavirus aid to obstruct funding for mail-in voting: Reuters
A minor collision occurred between Greek and Turkish warships in the Mediterranean: Reuters
China’s industrial recovery continues, despite retail sales sliding in July: SCMP
Is the stock market exhibiting over-optimism in forecasting a rapid economic recovery? MW
The US import prices increased for the third consecutive month in July: MW
Jobless claims in the US have fallen below the 1-million mark for the first time since March: CNBC

Recent economic trends have indicated a positive momentum, particularly for technology and consumer discretionary sectors, which are leading the US market. Based on exchange-traded funds, both of these sectors have shown strong performance as of the close of trading on August 12. Conversely, the lagging sectors are showing limited signs of an impending recovery.

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Mike Pompeo has hinted at wider restrictions on Chinese technology: CNBC
The US briefly seized an oil tanker from Iran near the strategic Strait of Hormuz: AP
The production of hundreds of millions of Covid-19 vaccines poses significant challenges: Politico
The US is contemplating new tariffs on certain products manufactured in France and Germany: BBG
China fears increased financial tensions with the US: Reuters
State budget cuts due to the pandemic present a recovery challenge in the US: WSJ
The Buffett Indicator—the ratio of stock market value to GDP—signals caution: MW
Concerns have emerged regarding the accuracy of new COVID-19 reporting rules in the US: NYT
US consumer inflation shows signs of rebound, though the 1-year trend remains mild: MW

Despite several positive economic signals indicating that the US might be emerging from the coronavirus-induced recession of the second quarter, the clarity on whether this bounce will lead to a strong and lasting recovery is still in question. There are numerous uncertainties that make it difficult to confidently forecast the second half of 2020.

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Kamala Harris has emerged as Biden’s running mate after beating out her rivals: Politico
Does Russia’s rapid vaccine rollout carry the risk of backfiring? CNBC
China is hastening its efforts to foster a more self-reliant domestic economy: WSJ
The UK saw a historic 20.4% decline in GDP in Q2: CNBC
The Eurozone experienced an increase in industrial output for June: MW
The Small Business Optimism Index fell slightly in July after a significant increase in June: NFIB
Wholesale inflation in the US posted a sharp rise in July, although the one-year trend remains negative: MW
Economists warn that without additional jobless relief, economic-crisis risks will increase: FTE

An examination of the global equity market reveals a generally subdued performance for year-to-date results up to yesterday’s close (August 10). However, further analysis by geographical region reveals that China’s stock market has outperformed others significantly, as indicated by various exchange-traded funds.
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President Putin has announced that Russia is the first nation to approve a Covid-19 vaccine: Reuters
Trump is considering blocking certain US citizens from reentering the country due to Covid-19 risks: Reuters
Trump has expressed interest in a potential capital gains tax cut: BBG
Employers are wary of Trump’s plan to defer payroll taxes: WSJ
New US sanctions regarding Hong Kong create complications for banking connections with China: CNBC
Big Tech is engaging with the Biden campaign: NYT
Investor sentiment in Germany showed an unexpected rebound in August: Reuters
The UK witnessed its most significant employment decline in over a decade in Q2: BBC
Job openings in the US exceeded expectations in June: BBG

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