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The Capital Spectator: Investing, Asset Allocation, and Economics Insights

Index-based investing is frequently used as a standard for assessing active investment strategies, and justifiably so. However, it’s important to recognize that indexing itself is an investment approach, complete with distinct advantages and challenges that can enhance active strategies.

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Negotiations regarding stimulus measures in Washington have encountered obstacles: BBG
The WHO has reported a record increase in global coronavirus cases in a single day: Reuters
The Louisiana coast prepares for Hurricane Delta: AP
Economists forecast a gradual recovery in US job markets, per a recent survey: WSJ
The US budget deficit has surged to an unprecedented $3.1 trillion for FY 2020: AP
Major Wall Street banks report record revenues from government-backed mortgage debt trades: Reuters
The UK economy recorded a 2.1% growth in August, falling short of expectations: CNBC
September saw a quicker pace of growth in China’s services sector: Reuters
Are jobless claims figures trustworthy? FW
US jobless claims remain elevated, presenting risks to economic recovery: CNBC

The ultimate goal in portfolio design is to merge assets in a way that maintains stable or even higher returns, minimizes risk, and produces impressive risk-adjusted performance unattainable through individual ownership of those components. As the saying goes, “diversification is the only free lunch in investing.”

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Regeneron seeks emergency authorization for its Covid-19 therapy: BBG
High US jobless claims are anticipated in today’s update: WSJ
Hurricane Delta poses a threat to the US Gulf Coast: CNN
Stalled stimulus negotiations in Washington jeopardize the economy: CNBC
Investors are focusing on the healthcare sector as Biden’s polling lead increases: Reuters
Low bond yields present challenges for baby boomers seeking safe investments: NYT
Fed minutes reveal officials are concerned about the lack of fiscal support for the economy: CNBC
US consumer borrowing declined in August as credit card balances continue to decrease: BBG

Resilience Revived? The political and election-related risks have continued to weigh on the US equity market in recent weeks. However, this market correction seems to be yet another temporary setback.

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The US economy is on the verge of a significant recovery, as indicated by the upcoming third-quarter GDP report. However, forecasts for Q4 appear to be weakening, according to recent nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com and various economists.

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Trump halts stimulus negotiations between Republicans and Democrats until after the election: WSJ
After initially rejecting talks, Trump appears to backtrack: CNBC
The suspension of pre-election stimulus discussions threatens further economic distress in the US: BBG
Fed Chairman Powell advocates for additional stimulus to support the economy’s recovery: CNBC
Covid-19 continues to spread within Trump’s inner circle: BBC
US lawmakers are focusing on reforms for Big Tech: Reuters
Iran cautions that conflict in the Caucasus could escalate into a regional war: Reuters
Political instability engulfs another former Soviet republic, Kyrgyzstan: BBC
German industrial output decreased in August following three months of growth: MW
Venezuela, once a leading oil producer, is facing severe declines in crude output: NYT
The US trade deficit has climbed to a 14-year high in August: AP
For the first time in four months, US job openings declined in August: BBG

A slight increase in yields can quickly ignite reflation expectations, especially with US interest rates hovering near zero (and even negative in some regions). This has reignited discussions about the potential for a prolonged period of elevated inflation.

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Trump returns to the White House with a tempered outlook: WSJ
The CDC has updated its coronavirus guidelines to acknowledge airborne transmission risks: CNBC
The US Secretary of State criticizes China’s ‘malign activities’ during discussions with Asian allies: IBT
A bifurcated recovery is manifesting as the US economy wrestles with the effects of coronavirus: WSJ
The House antitrust report suggests a potential breakup of Big Tech companies: Reuters
Despite a slow global recovery in September, the outlook remains “solid”: IHSM
German factory orders have continued their recovery trend in August: MW
The PMI survey indicates the US economy maintained its upward trajectory in September: IHSM
The US services sector expanded for the fourth consecutive month in September: MW

Global markets made a strong recovery last week, although a broad index of commodities continued to decline, as evidenced by a range of exchange-traded funds through October 2.

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