As the dust settles from the recent US election, it appears that growth and momentum risk factors will continue to dominate the US equity market. The election results, though incomplete, have not diminished the leadership of these factors.
Biden inches closer to securing the Electoral College: Reuters
Trump’s campaign is mounting legal challenges to the vote counts in key states: BBC
The US reports a surge in coronavirus cases, reaching a record of 103,000 on November 4: MW
Senate Leader McConnell advocates for a new economic relief bill: WSJ
Wall Street shows enthusiasm over the possibility of a divided government: NYT
The UK economy faces a potential recession due to the coronavirus pandemic and Brexit: CNN
Global growth rebounded to the fastest pace in over two years during October: IHSM
The US Composite PMI, a GDP proxy, increased at its highest rate in 29 months in October: IHSM
Although the US Services PMI dipped in October, it still indicates moderate growth: ISM
Data from ADP shows that US private employment growth slowed in October: BBG
The morning after the November 3 election, the outcome of the US presidential race remains uncertain. However, preliminary findings have dispelled a common misconception: Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 was not an isolated incident. Regardless of who ultimately secures the White House, it is clear from the data that nearly half of the voters who participated in this election favored Trump.
The US presidential election remains undecided in the early hours following election day: AP
Results are still unfolding in three key states that will ultimately determine the next president: Politico
Biden’s pathway through the ‘Blue Wall’ to the presidency appears increasingly uncertain: NYT
The Biden campaign is prepared for a legal battle against Trump: AP
A concession from either side could be necessary to resolve the situation: NYT
Republicans are likely to maintain control of the US Senate: Reuters
China halts the $34 billion IPO of Ant Group: WSJ
The US formally withdraws from the Paris climate agreement: BBC
US factory orders showed robust growth in September: Reuters
Biden holds a narrow lead in the Electoral College, though final outcomes may take time: NYT
In October, the expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) slightly decreased to an annualized rate of 4.7%, falling just below the previous month’s assessment. This forecast reflects a long-term projection for returns above the “risk-free” rate, based on a risk-oriented model (details below).
Current election models favor Biden as Americans head to the polls: FiveThirtyEight
However, one outlier poll suggests a decisive Trump win: NYT
Making portfolio adjustments based on election outcomes could be risky: CNBC
Economists predict that the Fed will not increase asset purchases through 2021: BBG
The US Treasury has revised its borrowing estimates for the remainder of 2020: WSJ
US construction spending increased less than anticipated in September: Reuters
Global manufacturing output surged to a two-and-a-half-year high in October: IHSM
China’s Manufacturing PMI climbed in October to its highest point since 2011: IHSM
Eurozone manufacturing output continued its upward trend in October: IHSM
US Manufacturing PMI increased in October, reaching its highest level since January 2019: IHSM
The US ISM Manufacturing Index reports significant growth in the manufacturing sector for October: ISM
Global markets displayed mixed results in October, primarily led by emerging market stocks and bonds, along with various commodities. Conversely, US shares and those from developed markets, along with real estate stocks globally, underperformed.
Trump has expressed that he might consider firing Dr. Anthony Fauci: AP
An important week lies ahead with the unfolding of US election results and economic data: BBG
Caution is advised when interpreting election forecasting models: NYT
Chinese Manufacturing PMI in October reached its highest level since January 2011: IHSM
The Eurozone PMI survey for October suggests continued manufacturing strengthening: IHSM
The UK’s manufacturing growth continued at a slower pace in October: IHSM
The Chicago PMI dipped in October but still indicates growth: CPMI
Consumer sentiment in the US increased in October: UoM
US consumer spending rose in September, marking the fifth consecutive month of increases: MW
While the final results of the election remain pending, several forecasts from CapitalSpectator.com still lean towards Joe Biden as the likely winner of the presidential contest on November 3. Here’s a brief summary of the latest figures as we approach the final hours before Tuesday’s decisions.
Raymond Yeung
Review via South China Morning Post
The US dollar may lose its status as the world’s dominant currency as globalization reverses. Consequently, China and the United States should collaborate to develop a globally utilized cryptocurrency. This strategy would undermine the dollar, foster American exports, and facilitate trade balance between the two global powers.
These key points summarize the insights from “China’s Trump Card: Cryptocurrency and Its Game-Changing Role in Sino-US Trade,” authored by Raymond Yeung, the chief Greater China economist at ANZ Bank. Yeung proposes a unique—and somewhat optimistic—solution to one of the world’s most complex and significant issues: the economic rivalry between the US and China.
