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The Capital Spectator: Investing, Asset Allocation, and Economic Insights

Less is More: How Degrowth Will Save the World
Jason Hickel
Review via Commonweal Magazine
In his compelling book, *Less is More: How Degrowth Will Save the World*, anthropologist Jason Hickel presents the key arguments of the degrowth movement in a format that is easy to understand. He emphasizes that relentless global expansion undermines both human and ecological well-being, and suggests that a future that transcends growth doesn’t have to be one of scarcity. Instead, he argues that a society can continue to enjoy abundance even after growth comes to a halt.

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Bullish Momentum Accelerates For Latin America Equities: Stocks across Mexico and South America are experiencing a significant rally. While this part of the global equity market remains the only major region with negative year-to-date returns, recent trends show a noteworthy recovery as the iShares Latin America 40 (ILF) continues to gain momentum.

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While discussions about fat tails in financial markets abound, the question remains: how can one model them to predict potential future events? There are numerous possibilities complicated by statistical intricacies. The primary challenge lies in the difficulty of fitting the complexities of reality into a single distribution to truly capture market dynamics. However, the head of global multi-asset strategies at T. Rowe Price proposes a straightforward and arguably superior method in a new book focusing on asset allocation.

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Congress continues deliberations on a stimulus package: CNBC
Moderna’s vaccine shows promise for providing longer-term immunity: MW
Biden and three former presidents commit to publicly receiving the vaccine: USAT
Should US policymakers embrace debt rather than fear it? NYT
The anticipated November payrolls report is expected to show the lowest increase in six months: RTRS
There is a growing demand for inflation-protected securities: FT
German factory orders climbed in October, returning to levels above pre-crisis measurements: BBG
Global growth showed a slight decline in November yet remained “solid”: IHSM
US jobless claims decreased last week, possibly due to the Thanksgiving holiday: WSJ
US Services PMI indicates that sector growth surged to a five-year peak in November: IHSM
PMI reveals contrasting results, with the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index showing slowed growth in November: ISM

This week, forecasts for inflation in the Treasury market exceeded pre-pandemic levels, sparking speculation that a new phase of increased pricing pressure may be on the horizon. However, it is crucial to exercise caution before declaring that inflation is at a pivotal moment. While there is a viable argument for reverting to the pre-pandemic expectation of roughly 2% inflation, any anticipation of significantly higher rates remains largely speculative and often overlooks enduring trends such as demographic shifts, disinflationary pressures from technological advancements, and other significant factors that have shaped the past two decades.
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Discussions about a stimulus bill continue to unfold in Congress: WSJ
The US sees a record number of Covid-19 hospitalizations: BBC
CDC director warns that Americans should prepare for a difficult winter due to rising Covid-19 cases: RTRS
The House has approved a bill that may lead to the delisting of Chinese companies from US stock exchanges: CNBC
China’s services sector growth accelerated in November: RTRS
Eurozone economic activity showed a decline in November according to PMI survey data: IHSM
UK economic activity decreased in November as per PMI survey data: BBG
Economic apprehension among Republicans surged sharply following the election according to a survey: NYT
The Fed’s Beige Book reveals that the US economic rebound gathered pace recently: WSJ
US companies added fewer jobs than anticipated in November: BBG

The risk premium estimate for The Global Market Index (GMI) has surged to an annualized 5.3% in the latest revision. This increase represents a substantial rise compared to last month’s estimate. The figure reflects a long-term projection of the index’s performance over the “risk-free” rate, derived from a risk-based model (details provided below).

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The UK has approved the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine: CNBC
Trump may veto the defense bill over social media provisions: AP
Biden indicates he won’t immediately reverse Trump’s tariffs on China: CNBC
Biden’s economic advisors stress the need for prompt action regarding stimulus: NYT
Global manufacturing rose in November at its fastest rate since January 2018: IHSM
The 10-year Treasury yield increased sharply, nearing 1%: BBG
Germany’s retail spending outperformed expectations in October: RTRS
US construction activity bounced back in October: MW
US Manufacturing PMI indicated ongoing growth acceleration: IHSM
The ISM Manufacturing Index signaled that sector growth had slowed in November: RTRS

November proved exceptionally favorable for risk assets, marking another month of broad gains. For the third time this year, all major asset classes experienced an upswing, ranging from a minimal increase of one basis point in cash to a striking 15% rally in stocks within developed foreign markets. A positive momentum lifted all sectors, following strong increases noted in May and July.
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Moderna seeks approval for its coronavirus vaccine: WSJ
Biden appoints a progressive economic team: AP
Fed Chairman Powell describes the economic outlook as “extraordinarily uncertain”: CNBC
China’s manufacturing activity in November reached its highest level in a decade: IHSM
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI maintained moderate gains in November: IHSM
UK manufacturing surveys indicated an uptick in activity during November: IHSM
Exxon Mobil announces significant reductions in capital and exploration expenditures: NYT
Chicago PMI reflects a slowdown in business conditions for November: MW
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index shows a notable decline in activity for November: MSTAR
US pending home sales fell for the second consecutive month in October: BBG

In summary, the content provides a range of insights into the current financial and economic landscape, spanning various topics such as the stock market’s performance, inflation forecasts, and ongoing legislative developments. Each section highlights the intricacies of market dynamics and economic policy, making it crucial for readers to stay informed about these ever-evolving issues.

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