The Capital Spectator: Investing Insights, Asset Allocation, and Economic Trends

<div class="entry-content">

    <p>In recent months, the sharp increase in the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield may seem notable. However, a longer-term perspective offers a different interpretation. This outlook may alter if rates continue their ascent, but currently, this yield fluctuation appears as part of a prolonged trend of variability within a downward trend.</p>

    <p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-the-rise-in-the-10-year-treasury-rate-noise-or-signal/#more-15913" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
</div><!-- .entry-content -->
<footer class="entry-meta">
    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-the-rise-in-the-10-year-treasury-rate-noise-or-signal/" title="7:40 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-04-22T07:40:59-04:00">April 22, 2021</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta -->

<div class="entry-content">
    <p>* The US <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/21/politics/what-matters-vaccine-tipping-point/index.html">achieves</a> 200 million vaccinations – vaccinating the rest may pose challenges<br />* German Foreign Minister: <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/de-coupling-china-would-be-wrong-way-go-germany-warns-2021-04-21/">de-coupling</a> from China would be a misstep<br />* India <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-22/india-records-world-s-highest-one-day-surge-in-covid-cases">experiences</a> a world record in daily Covid-19 infections<br />* A Pfizer-BioNTech Covid vaccine scientist <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/21/scientist-who-helped-develop-pfizer-biontech-covid-vaccine-agrees-third-shot-is-needed-as-immunity-wanes.html">suggests</a> a third dose is necessary<br />* Over 1000 people were <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/22/russia-protests-more-than-1000-arrested-at-pro-navalny-demonstrations.html">arrested</a> in Russia during protests backing Alexei Navalny<br />* Biden plans to <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/32f5e2cd-4689-4434-9da0-d97d46673eaf">propose</a> a 50% reduction in US emissions by 2030<br />* Analysts <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-u-s-housing-market-heading-for-a-crash-heres-what-the-experts-say-11619023745?mod=home-page">evaluate</a> the risk of a housing market crash in the US<br />* The 10-year Treasury yield decreased for the second consecutive day, approaching the lowest rate in over a month:</p>
    <p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ten.yr_.21apr2021.png"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-15912" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ten.yr_.21apr2021.png" alt="" width="700" height="530"  /></a></p>
</div><!-- .entry-content -->
<footer class="entry-meta">
    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-22-april-2021/" title="5:57 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-04-22T05:57:00-04:00">April 22, 2021</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta -->

<div class="entry-content">

    <p>The 10-year Treasury yield fell for the second day, ending at 1.57% on April 21. This figure is nearly the lowest it has been in over a month. If the 10-year yield closes lower on Friday compared to the previous week's yield, it will mark the third consecutive weekly decline.</p>

    <p><em><a href="https://etfps.substack.com/p/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-21-april">continue reading at The ETF Portfolio Strategist</a></em></p>
</div><!-- .entry-content -->
<footer class="entry-meta">
    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-21-april-2021/" title="6:15 pm" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-04-21T18:15:21-04:00">April 21, 2021</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta -->

<div class="entry-content">

    <p>So far this year, the previously lagging small-cap value sector of the US stock market has experienced a resurgence. The sustainability of this trend may depend on the overall performance of stocks in the upcoming months and whether predictions for a robust economic recovery materialize.</p>

    <p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-the-rebound-for-small-cap-value-stocks-endure/#more-15904" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
</div><!-- .entry-content -->
<footer class="entry-meta">
    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-the-rebound-for-small-cap-value-stocks-endure/" title="7:29 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-04-21T07:29:41-04:00">April 21, 2021</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta -->

<div class="entry-content">
    <p>* Former police officer Derek Chauvin was <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/jurors-resume-deliberations-derek-chauvin-murder-trial-2021-04-20/">convicted</a> of murdering George Floyd<br />* South Korea's exports—an indicator of global commerce health—saw a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-20/korea-s-exports-jump-in-early-data-as-global-trade-recovers?utm_medium=social&amp;cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&amp;utm_content=business&amp;utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_campaign=socialflow-organic">surge</a> in April<br />* The pandemic <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/21/coronavirus-worlds-10-biggest-economies-before-covid-pandemic-vs-now.html">reshuffled</a> the ranking of the world’s largest economies<br />* Supply chain disruptions are taking a <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/snarled-supply-chain-trips-up-small-businesses-11618997400?mod=hp_lead_pos1">serious toll</a> on small businesses in the US<br />* China’s digital currency is a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-20/digital-yuan-gives-china-a-new-tool-to-strike-back-at-critics?srnd=premium">new tool</a> for countering criticism<br />* Twelve states urge Biden to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/twelve-us-states-urge-biden-back-phasing-out-gas-powered-vehicle-sales-by-2035-2021-04-21/">eliminate</a> gas-powered vehicle sales by 2035<br />* The property management sector is booming as demand for vacation rentals <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/20/explosive-demand-for-vacation-rentals-has-made-property-managers-a-hot-commodity.html">surges</a><br />* The <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/bubble-investigations/">bubble indicator</a> for the S&P 500 appears to be frothy once more:</p>
    <p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/sp500.1yr.bubble.2021-04-20.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-15901" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/sp500.1yr.bubble.2021-04-20.png" alt="" width="600" height="400"  /></a></p>
</div><!-- .entry-content -->
<footer class="entry-meta">
    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-21-april-2021/" title="5:59 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-04-21T05:59:52-04:00">April 21, 2021</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta -->

<div class="entry-content">

    <p>The recent surge in Treasury yields has paused for now. Similarly, the usual fluctuations in yields of various <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-march-2021-performance-review/">major asset classes</a>, as measured by exchange-traded funds, are also on hold. Yield premiums can still be found in risk assets compared to government securities. However, the current environment involves deliberations about potential inflation and rising interest rates, complicating the already challenging pursuit of higher returns.</p>

    <p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/desperately-seeking-yield-20-april-2021/#more-15895" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
</div><!-- .entry-content -->
<footer class="entry-meta">
    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/desperately-seeking-yield-20-april-2021/" title="7:24 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-04-20T07:24:08-04:00">April 20, 2021</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta -->

<div class="entry-content">
    <p>* President Xi of China <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-president-xi-says-global-governance-system-should-be-more-equitable-fair-2021-04-20/">advocates</a> for a more equitable global order amid rising tensions with the US<br />* According to Blinken, the US could lag behind China in leveraging climate change, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/19/politics/blinken-climate-speech/index.html">says</a> <br />* Energy-related carbon emissions are predicted to spike nearly 5% this year, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/20/climate-and-carbon-iea-warns-covid-recovery-anything-but-sustainable.html">predicts</a> IEA<br />* Addressing the global shortage of computer chips is <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-the-chip-shortage-is-so-hard-to-overcome-11618844905?mod=hp_lead_pos5">challenging</a><br />* Wall Street views central bank digital currencies as a potential major disruptive force, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/19/central-bank-digital-currency-is-the-next-major-financial-disruptor.html">sees</a> <br />* If inflation rises, many investors may not be adequately prepared, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/19/investors-are-poorly-prepared-for-inflation-rich-bernstein-warns.html">warns</a> a financial adviser<br />* The US Dollar Index fell sharply on Monday, hitting a 2-1/2 month low:</p>
    <p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/dollar.20apr2021.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-15894" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/dollar.20apr2021.png" alt="" width="700" height="530"  /></a></p>
</div><!-- .entry-content -->
<footer class="entry-meta">
    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-20-april-2021/" title="5:51 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-04-20T05:51:40-04:00">April 20, 2021</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta -->

<div class="entry-content">
    <p>It was difficult to incur losses last week as global markets showed positive performance during the week ending April 16, according to data from various exchange-traded funds. Led by foreign and US real estate shares, all <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-march-2021-performance-review/">major asset classes</a> registered gains compared to the previous week's closing prices.</p>

    <p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/all-the-major-asset-classes-posted-gains-last-week/#more-15887" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
</div><!-- .entry-content -->
<footer class="entry-meta">
    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/all-the-major-asset-classes-posted-gains-last-week/" title="7:16 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-04-19T07:16:20-04:00">April 19, 2021</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta -->

<div class="entry-content">
    <p>* More than half of US adults have <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/19/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html">received</a> at least one dose of the Covid-19 vaccine<br />* The arms race is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/19/world/asia/korea-missiles-arms-race.html">intensifying</a> on the Korean peninsula<br />* Investors are focusing on inflation <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/16/investors-look-for-hints-of-inflation-in-earnings-in-the-week-ahead.html">concerns</a> as earnings reports come in<br />* Will hiring keep pace with the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/economic-growth-is-set-to-surge-hiring-might-not-keep-up-11618738202">rapidly growing</a> economic rebound?<br />* China’s central bank has <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/19/china-calls-bitcoin-an-investment-alternative-marking-shift-in-tone.html">referred</a> to Bitcoin as an ‘investment alternative’<br />* Global consumers have <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/8cbfe40d-1ce1-4dc6-bcb2-1314b77b9443">accumulated</a> an additional $5.4 trillion in savings during the pandemic<br />* New housing construction in the US reached a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/us-housing-starts-increase-more-than-expected-march-2021-04-16/">15-year high</a> in March<br />* The US Consumer Sentiment Index <a href="http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/">rose</a> to a one-year high in April:</p>
    <p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/sent.19apr2021.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-15886" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/sent.19apr2021.png" alt="" width="649" height="437"  /></a></p>
</div><!-- .entry-content -->
<footer class="entry-meta">
    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-19-april-2021/" title="6:00 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-04-19T06:00:20-04:00">April 19, 2021</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta -->

<div class="entry-content">

    <p>Navigating the complexities of beta, let alone outperforming it, has proven to be increasingly challenging in 2021. This sentiment mirrors the ongoing narrative in our series of proprietary portfolio strategies, which incorporate various risk management techniques while targeting a globally diverse asset portfolio.</p>

    <p><em><a href="https://etfps.substack.com/p/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-18-april">continue reading at The ETF Portfolio Strategist</a></em></p>
</div><!-- .entry-content -->
<footer class="entry-meta">
    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-18-april-2021/" title="4:45 pm" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-04-18T16:45:43-04:00">April 18, 2021</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta -->