<div class="entry-content">
<p>Current events indicate significant activity on multiple fronts:</p>
<ul>
<li>* House Democrats are considering <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/12/politics/democrats-taxes-corporations-rich/index.html">taxes</a> on the wealthy and corporations to fund the proposed $3.5 trillion budget.</li>
<li>* Senator Manchin, a crucial swing vote, has stated he will <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/12/sen-joe-manchin-says-theres-no-way-to-pass-budget-bill-by-september-27.html">not support</a> the $3.5 trillion budget.</li>
<li>* The risk of a government shutdown is a rising <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/12/dems-toil-to-avoid-default-shutdown-in-pivotal-fall-511158">concern</a> for Democrats in Washington.</li>
<li>* The Delta variant is driving a new Covid-19 outbreak in China, as reported <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-13/delta-breaches-china-less-than-a-month-after-previous-flareup">here</a>.</li>
<li>* North Korea has <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58540915">reported</a> the testing of a new long-range missile.</li>
<li>* Russia’s military presence in Africa is <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/13/russia-is-building-military-influence-in-africa-challenging-us-france.html">growing</a>, challenging the established order.</li>
<li>* A new government analysis predicts US job growth will not <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-12/fewer-pediatricians-more-cooks-seen-in-dismal-u-s-jobs-outlook">return to pre-pandemic levels</a> until 2030.</li>
<li>* US producer inflation <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/10/august-wholesale-prices-rise-8point3percent-on-an-annual-basis-biggest-advance-on-record.html">accelerated</a> in August, reaching a record 8.3% year-over-year.</li>
</ul>
<p><a href="http:="><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-16681" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ppi.13sep2021.png" alt="" width="810" height="503" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-13-september-2021/" title="5:27 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-09-13T05:27:26-04:00">September 13, 2021</time></a>
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<p>This past week, our proprietary strategies experienced setbacks, aligning with the Global Beta 16 (G.B16) benchmark. While the benchmark currently maintains the lead for the year, the gap has narrowed to just 20 basis points over the year's top-performing strategy—Global Managed Volatility, which has seen an increase of 9.2% in 2021 compared to 9.4% for G.B16 as of Friday's closing (September 10).</p>
<p><a href="https://etfps.substack.com/p/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-12-september"><em>continue reading at The ETF Portfolio Strategist</em></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-12-september-2021/" title="4:27 pm" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-09-12T16:27:28-04:00">September 12, 2021</time></a>
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<p>Discover insights from a recent publication: <a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B08R3WG5FB/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=B08R3WG5FB&linkCode=as2&tag=thecapitalspe-20&linkId=f329d7dec6aba21af13d8dfb2dcf7f32" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img decoding="async" class="alignleft" src="https://ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&MarketPlace=US&ASIN=B08R3WG5FB&ServiceVersion=20070822&ID=AsinImage&WS=1&Format=_SL250_&tag=thecapitalspe-20" border="0"/></a>● <a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B08R3WG5FB/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=B08R3WG5FB&linkCode=as2&tag=thecapitalspe-20&linkId=28e11dfb395f48506af405a00bfd7d7d" target="_blank" rel="noopener">System Error: Where Big Tech Went Wrong and How We Can Reboot</a><br/>Authored by Rob Reich and others.<br/><strong><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/09/democracy-is-losing-its-race-with-disruption/619983/">Excerpt</a> via The Atlantic</strong><br/>In an era marked by unprecedented innovation from tech companies, Americans enjoy many benefits while grappling with emerging challenges. Those who appreciate their smartphones and social media may still worry about how these platforms collect personal data and engage users with frequent notifications. Despite aiding in personal connections, technology giants often utilize obscure algorithms that influence our content consumption. Politicians, observing these dynamics, face a dilemma: should they ally with influential tech leaders or campaign against the associated consequences, such as the spread of misinformation and the concentration of market power among a select few companies?</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-11-saturday-2021/#more-16651" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-11-saturday-2021/" title="7:21 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-09-11T07:21:03-04:00">September 11, 2021</time></a>
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<ul>
<li><em>Global markets faced losses this week</em></li>
<li><em>All portfolio strategy benchmarks recorded weekly losses</em></li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Are the consequences beginning to manifest?</strong> Perhaps, but such speculation has long been a favored pastime without yielding definitive results. It's unclear whether circumstances have shifted this time, although eventually, something will change. Meanwhile, this week has seen significant declines across most major asset classes, leading to concerning observations.</p>
<p><em><a href="https://etfps.substack.com/p/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-10-september">continue reading at The ETF Portfolio Strategist</a></em></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-10-september-2021/" title="6:40 pm" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-09-10T18:40:25-04:00">September 10, 2021</time></a>
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<p>A <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/0a7a4edd-b656-4d6a-b608-454241d0288e">recent survey</a> suggests that many economists anticipate the Federal Reserve will initiate interest rate hikes next year to address inflation concerns. While this prediction seems plausible, the trend of the 10-year Treasury yield indicates a flat or downward outlook.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/10-year-treasury-yield-fair-value-estimate-10-september-2021/#more-16674" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/10-year-treasury-yield-fair-value-estimate-10-september-2021/" title="7:16 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-09-10T07:16:53-04:00">September 10, 2021</time></a>
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<p>* President Biden has <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/09/biden-federal-workers-vaccines-510851">expanded</a> the vaccine mandate to help combat the pandemic.<br/>* This mandate is also an <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/09/us/politics/biden-vaccines-economy.html">effort</a> to support the economy.<br/>* US businesses have raised <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-10/businesses-question-logistics-cost-of-biden-vaccine-plan?srnd=premium">questions and concerns</a> regarding the new vaccine mandate.<br/>* Biden <a href="https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-health-china-beijing-xi-jinping-2cf24c188aae50da21be25e8c66fd04b">spoke</a> with Chinese President Xi amidst escalating tensions.<br/>* A new economist survey <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/0a7a4edd-b656-4d6a-b608-454241d0288e">forecasts rate hikes</a> in 2022 to deal with inflation.<br/>* China is <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/10/economy/china-oil-prices-reserves-intl-hnk/index.html">selling</a> portions of its strategic oil reserve to lower prices.<br/>* Two Federal Reserve presidents have <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/09/feds-rosengren-to-sell-individual-stock-portfolio-to-address-ethics-concerns.html">divested stocks</a> to mitigate ethics concerns.<br/>* UK economic growth <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58502593">stagnated</a> in July, according to GDP data.<br/>* US jobless claims <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/09/weekly-jobless-claims-.html">continued to decline</a> last week, reaching a new pandemic low:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/claims.10sep2021.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-16673" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/claims.10sep2021.png" alt="" width="555" height="399" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-10-september-2021/" title="5:51 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-09-10T05:51:15-04:00">September 10, 2021</time></a>
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<p>A significant ongoing discussion pertains to the US 60/40 stocks/bonds benchmark, which has long served as a standard in portfolio management. While this model has its criticisms—especially as the financial landscape becomes increasingly global and complex—the 60/40 blend remains a widely accepted reference. The pressing question is whether it’s time to reevaluate this benchmark. The straightforward answer is yes. The more challenging inquiry is: what alternative benchmark should we adopt?</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/exploring-alternatives-to-the-us-60-40-benchmark-part-i/#more-16666" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/exploring-alternatives-to-the-us-60-40-benchmark-part-i/" title="8:06 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-09-09T08:06:36-04:00">September 9, 2021</time></a>
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<p>* Treasury Secretary Yellen <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/08/yellen-october-debt-cliff-congress-510442">cautions</a> that the US might default on its national debt in October.<br/>* Ongoing repercussions from Hurricane Ida continue to keep US oil production <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/hurricane-idas-fallout-continues-to-cripple-u-s-oil-production-11631104257?mod=hp_lead_pos6">constrained</a>.<br/>* The Fed's Beige Book <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/08/businesses-are-feeling-stronger-inflation-and-paying-higher-wages-feds-beige-book-says.html">indicates</a> rising inflation coupled with slower economic growth.<br/>* In China, factory-gate price inflation <a href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3148079/china-inflation-factory-gate-price-growth-remained-high">rose</a> to a 13-year high in August.<br/>* Emerging markets are experiencing a <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/cd189742-776f-470c-914a-fee4549a70f8">divide</a> between hawkish and dovish stances on inflation management.<br/>* Britain is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/germany-trade-britain-exclusive-idUSKBN2G41BX">set to drop</a> out of the top-10 trading partners with Germany.<br/>* State Street has announced it will <a href="https://www.globalcustodian.com/state-street-to-acquire-brown-brothers-harriman-in-monumental-3-5-billion-custody-deal/">acquire</a> Brown Brothers Harriman Investor Services.<br/>* US job openings <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/job-openings-jolts-report-11-million/">hit</a> a record high in July:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/openings.09sep2021.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-16659" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/openings.09sep2021.png" alt="" width="805" height="511" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-9-september-2021/" title="5:46 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-09-09T05:46:57-04:00">September 9, 2021</time></a>
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<p>As Yogi Berra once said, "You can learn a lot just by watching." Applying this wisdom to the shifting dynamics in our strategy benchmarks, we can glean valuable insights from observing these fluctuations. Indeed, there are instances when monitoring this data reveals important patterns that can guide our understanding.</p>
<p><em><a href="https://etfps.substack.com/p/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-8-september">continue reading at The ETF Portfolio Strategist</a></em></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-8-september-2021/" title="5:40 pm" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-09-08T17:40:09-04:00">September 8, 2021</time></a>
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<p>One of the more challenging aspects of data modeling involves deciding how to handle extreme data points. This is a common issue within economic and financial figures. For example, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fat-tailed_distribution">fat-tailed distributions</a> frequently appear in stock market returns. The significant economic downturn experienced during the pandemic serves as a stark reminder that outliers can affect macroeconomic analysis as well.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/managing-data-outliers-with-quantile-regression-part-i/#more-16654" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/managing-data-outliers-with-quantile-regression-part-i/" title="8:00 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-09-08T08:00:28-04:00">September 8, 2021</time></a>
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