As global events continue to unfold, here are the latest updates:
* The ongoing conflict in Ukraine poses risks of escalating beyond its borders.
* European leaders have described the cutoff of Russian gas as an economic form of ‘blackmail’ .
* The World Bank has warned of the potential for the ‘largest commodity shock’ since the 1970s due to the situation in Ukraine .
* Economists, via a new Reuters poll, anticipate a further slowdown in global growth.
* In Southern California, strict water usage restrictions have been implemented due to ongoing drought conditions.
* The Japanese yen has fallen to a 20-year low against the dollar, attributed to the Bank of Japan’s commitment to maintaining low interest rates.
* Sweden’s central bank has performed a surprising policy reversal by increasing interest rates.
* In the US, pending home sales dropped in March for the fifth consecutive month:
The initial estimate of the US GDP for the first quarter, due tomorrow (Thursday, April 28), is expected to indicate a notable slowdown in economic growth. This projection is based on a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
* Russia has ceased natural gas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria.
* The Polish government asserts its energy supplies remain secure despite this loss.
* Consumer sentiment in Germany has plummeted to an unprecedented low as May approaches.
* Economists at Deutsche Bank have raised the severity of their US recession forecast.
* The Federal Reserve is now compelled to continue increasing interest rates, according to a strategist’s advice.
* The World Bank anticipates the greatest commodity shock since the 1970s due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine .
* In the US, home prices have increased nearly 20% year-over-year through February.
* Sales of new single-family homes declined by 8.6% in March.
* Consumer confidence in the US decreased in April due to a less optimistic short-term outlook.
* Orders for durable goods in the US rebounded in March:
Discussion surrounding potential recession risks is increasingly prevalent, and with good reason. A growing array of challenges threaten the economy. However, distinguishing between predictions of contraction and real-time observations can be tricky, often leading to uncertainty about whether these two perspectives converge. Holding this notion in mind, it’s essential to consider the evidence which indicates that, while recession risks may be present, the data currently available suggests that economic expansion is still ongoing.
* Russia alerts that the risks of nuclear conflict should not be dismissed.
* Central banks are advised to take decisive action against inflation, says the CEO of Man Group .
* Treasury real yields are shifting closer to zero after a lengthy period in negative territory.
* There is a growing case for a potential return of the bond bull market .
* Discretionary spending by US consumers saw a decline in March, according to estimates from consultancy .
* The possibility of further lockdowns in China raises concerns for global supply chains.
* Twitter has accepted Elon Musk’s $44 billion acquisition offer.
* The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index continues to reflect slower growth in April.
* Data from the Chicago Fed indicates that the US economy maintained a solid growth rate in March:
Significant selling pressure characterized the major asset classes throughout last week, culminating in Friday’s close on April 22, as indicated by a series of ETFs. The standout performers included US real estate investment trusts (REITs) and inflation-protected treasuries.
* Emmanuel Macron has been reelected as France’s president, successfully defeating his far-right challenger.
* Following a visit to Ukraine, US officials pledged additional military assistance.
* A recent Covid-19 outbreak continues to disrupt China.
* Rising mortgage rates may lead to a housing shortage, according to an economist’s warning.
* The bond market appears to be pricing in an accelerated rise in inflationary pressures for the years ahead.
* Data suggest a possible easing of inflationary pressures in the US labor market .
* A new energy crisis is currently unfolding.
* Economic sentiment in Germany has stabilized in April, with a marginally improved reading.
* According to Sentix survey data from April, a recession in Europe has commenced:
and How to Fix It
Steve Forbes, et al.
Summary via publisher (Encounter Books)
This book explores the underlying factors driving the most severe inflationary pressures in over forty years—an issue that continues to dominate headlines and impact American households. The cost-of-living surge since the COVID pandemic has sparked discussions about a potential return to a 1970s-style “Great Inflation,” with some experts warning of the risk of hyperinflation evident across various nations. Is this a realistic concern? If so, how can we prepare for what lies ahead?
Challenges are mounting for the US economy, raising concerns about the increasing risk of recession. Nevertheless, the labor market demonstrates resilience, suggesting continued economic expansion in the near term.
* Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has indicated that a 0.5% rate hike in May is “on the table” .
* Growth in the eurozone is reported to have accelerated in April, according to PMI survey data.
* The outcome of the French presidential election on Sunday may impact US-led strategies regarding Ukraine.
* In Florida, lawmakers have passed a bill to remove Disney’s special self-governing status.
* China’s stringent zero-Covid approach has triggered a flight of capital from its financial markets.
* The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index eased in April but still indicates ongoing growth.
* Jobless claims in the US remain near a 50-year low.
* The US Leading Economic Index forecasts economic growth throughout 2022:
