The Capital Spectator: Investing, Asset Allocation, and Economic Insights

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Julian Robertson stands out as one of the most accomplished investors in history, arguably at the top of that list. His recent passing last week marks the end of an era, but his investment legacy persists as a benchmark of triumph over market volatility—one that few will likely replicate. Some estimates suggest that his Tiger fund achieved an impressive annual return of 25% over two decades, a performance that firmly places Robertson among the elite alpha generators in the investment world.

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<div class="entry-content"> * Violence <a href="https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-religion-iran-iraq-baghdad-0ed4c3378b0257091a7b1d70b9e3fb35">erupted</a> in Iraq’s Green Zone during intense protests * Ukraine <a href="https://www.ibtimes.com/ukraine-says-fresh-southern-offensive-breaking-through-russian-defences-3606968">claims</a> that a new offensive in the south is breaching Russian defenses * France <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/france-accuses-russia-using-gas-weapon-war-2022-08-30/">accuses</a> Russia of wielding energy supply as a "weapon of war" * Pakistan’s planning minister <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-62719659">estimates</a> that recent floods will lead to a cost of $10 billion * The US and China <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/26/investing/china-us-delisting/index.html">have struck</a> a deal to prevent widespread delistings of Chinese stocks from US exchanges * The China bank scandal expands as <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/30/intl_business/china-rural-bank-fraud-arrests-intl-hnk/index.html">hundreds are detained</a> * Russia is <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-confounds-the-west-by-recapturing-its-oil-riches-11661781928?mod=hp_lead_pos6">earning record profits</a> from its crude oil sales * Global sea levels <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/29/world/greenland-ice-loss-sea-level-rise-study/index.html">are anticipated to rise</a> by nearly a foot due to Greenland's ice losses * Mortgage lender bankruptcies are <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-mortgage-lenders-starting-bankrupt-191500850.html">on the rise</a> * Economic sentiment in the Eurozone <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/eurozone-economic-sentiment-fell-in-august-to-18-month-low-271661850039?mod=exchange-traded-funds">dropped</a> to an 18-month low in August * 3mo/10yr US Treasury yield remains positive — just barely:

<div class="entry-content"> * Federal Reserve Chairman Powell <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/26/economy/federal-reserve-jerome-powell-jackson-hole-2022/index.html">says</a> that combating inflation will inevitably cause ‘some pain’ * US gross domestic income <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-different-take-on-the-u-s-economy-maybe-it-isnt-really-shrinking-11661696041">indicates</a> an economic stall as opposed to a GDP recession * Senator Warren expresses being <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/elizabeth-warren-says-she-very-171027118.html">"very worried" </a>that rate hikes by the Fed might "push the economy into recession" * EU faces a grim outlook with <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62710522">five to ten harsh winters</a> if it does not cap gas prices, according to a minister * Economists have <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-28/china-s-growth-prospects-weaken-as-economists-cut-2023-forecasts">downgraded growth projections</a> for China's economy for the entire year of 2022 * The US dollar <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/dollar-gains-investors-brace-higher-rates-2022-08-29/">hits a 20-year peak</a> amid expectations for further rate increases * A German foreign minister <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-28/ukraine-latest-germany-warns-that-war-could-last-years?srnd=premium">warns</a> that the conflict in Ukraine "could endure for years" * China’s ambition to achieve tech self-reliance remains a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/29/technology/china-semiconductors-technology.html">significant challenge</a> * Is Friday’s market collapse a sign that a difficult journey lies ahead for stocks? <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/stocks-pivot-spurs-investors-to-shore-up-defenses-11661620053?mod=hp_lead_pos1">Examine the evidence</a> * Consumer spending growth in the US <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/25/cars/car-price-borrowing/index.html">slowed</a> to its lowest level in seven months during July:

<div class="entry-content"> <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Investing-Oasis-Contrarian-Treasures-Capital/dp/1119871085?crid=3UMD63RWG2WVO&keywords=The+Investing+Oasis%3A+Contrarian+Treasures+in+the+Capital+Markets+Desert&qid=1661436527&s=books&sprefix=the+investing+oasis+contrarian+treasures+in+the+capital+markets+desert%2Cstripbooks%2C58&sr=1-1&linkCode=li3&tag=thecapitalspe-20&linkId=3f9227a6b6f60bd439ce0306acd32d58&language=en_US&ref_=as_li_ss_il" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img decoding="async" class="alignleft" src="https://ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&ASIN=1119871085&Format=_SL250_&ID=AsinImage&MarketPlace=US&ServiceVersion=20070822&WS=1&tag=thecapitalspe-20&language=en_US" border="0"/></a><img decoding="async" style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" src="https://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=thecapitalspe-20&language=en_US&l=li3&o=1&a=1119871085" alt="" width="1" height="1" border="0"/>● <a href="https://amzn.to/3AMDR0N">The Investing Oasis: Contrarian Treasures in the Capital Markets Desert</a> J. T. Mason <a href="https://www.wiley.com/en-us/The+Investing+Oasis:+Contrarian+Treasures+in+the+Capital+Markets+Desert-p-9781119871088">Summary</a> via publisher (Wiley) This guide takes readers on a journey to discover hidden values in the capital markets, illuminating the dangers surrounding individual investors. It serves as a metaphorical expedition through the arid landscape of capital markets to highlight the “Behavior Gap”—the persistent issue of underperformance relative to the market faced by investors. This roadmap features crucial portfolio management strategies and contrarian techniques aimed at transforming missteps and undue risks into long-term strengths. The author, through 30 chapters and four levels, gradually introduces more effective tools and methodologies utilized in founding the successful Oasis Growth Fund, a North American hedge fund.

<div class="entry-content"> * Attention has shifted to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/25/powell-isnt-likely-to-tell-investors-what-they-want-to-hear-friday.html">today’s address</a> by Fed Chairman Powell at 10 am ET * Putin <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/putin-orders-russian-military-start-beefing-2023-88837609">commands</a> a troop increase in the Russian military * Russia <a href="https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-halted-natural-gas-shipment-142609019.html">stops</a> a natural gas shipment to Asia over payment disputes * Expected energy bills for UK households <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-62674301">to rise 80%</a> in October * Midwestern drought <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/midwest-drought-adds-to-pain-in-grain-markets-11661469304?mod=hp_lead_pos5">exacerbates</a> challenges for grain markets * Will a housing recession lead to a drop in home prices? Economists suggest <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/25/housing-recession-home-price-decline-unlikely-despite-slowing-sales.html">it may not</a> * American consumers <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/25/cars/car-price-borrowing/index.html">are borrowing</a> at unprecedented levels for car purchases * The US second quarter GDP decline is <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/25/economy/us-gdp-q2-2022-second-estimate/index.html">less severe</a> than initially projected * Jobless claims in the US <a href="https://nypost.com/2022/08/25/jobless-claims-fall-for-second-straight-week/">drop</a> for the second consecutive week, affirming a tight labor market:

<div class="entry-content"> * President Biden <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/24/politics/student-loans-joe-biden-white-house/">announces</a> his plan for student loan forgiveness * California <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2022/8/24/23320148/california-gas-car-ban-2035-ev-climate-change">is poised</a> to prohibit new gasoline car sales starting in 2035 * China <a href="https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-announces-additional-stimulus-worth-cny1-trillion-to-rescue-economy-202208250134">is rolling out</a> more economic stimulus measures * The German leading indicator <a href="https://think.ing.com/snaps/german-ifo-points-to-further-weakening-of-the-economy/">forecasts</a> persistent weakness in the economy * Despite the war in Ukraine, Russian products <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-biden-baltimore-only-on-ap-81a34ce2eecebe491f52ace380ce87fb">continue to flow</a> into the US * Pending home sales dipped again in July, but experts <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/24/pending-home-sales-drop-1percent-in-july.html">predict</a> a potential bottom soon * US home prices <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/24/home-prices-fall-for-the-first-time-in-three-years-biggest-drop-since-2011.html">fell</a> in July, marking the first decrease in three years * New orders for US durable goods were <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/companies-pulled-back-on-orders-for-big-ticket-items-in-july-11661345853">flat in July</a>, though core orders continue to climb: