<div class="entry-content">The Consumer Price Index declined more than anticipated in March, signaling that price pressures may have peaked and indicating an ongoing trend toward lower inflation in the coming months. Although the core CPI reading showed a slight uptick, it appears to be an anomaly when compared to various other inflation indicators.
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<p>* San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-daly-still-need-to-raise-rates-but-how-much-hinges-on-bank-stresses-162358494.html">emphasizes</a> the need for continued rate hikes.<br/>* Federal Reserve anticipates a recession later this year, as noted in the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/12/fed-expects-banking-crisis-to-cause-a-recession-this-year-minutes-show.html">March meeting minutes</a>.<br/>* The US-Saudi oil agreement is <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-04-12/recession-odds-inflation-fears-jump-as-us-saudi-oil-pact-breaks-down?srnd=economics-v2&leadSource=uverify%20wall">breaking down</a> with increasing Russian influence in OPEC.<br/>* The UK economy showed <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/uk-economy-flatlines-with-no-growth-in-february-12855748">no growth</a> in February according to GDP data.<br/>* China's exports unexpectedly <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-exports-post-surprise-surge-march-2023-04-13/">surged</a> in March.<br/>* Most banks, except the largest ones, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/deposit-crisis-sets-up-a-tough-first-quarter-for-all-but-the-biggest-banks-127326a4?mod=hp_lead_pos3">are facing a challenging quarter</a> in earnings reports.<br/>* Concerns about war influence Buffett’s recent <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-says-threat-war-184717880.html">sale</a> of shares in the semiconductor giant TSMC.<br/>* Although the headline consumer inflation <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/12/cpi-march-2023-.html">eased</a> in March, the core trend has slightly increased:</p>
<div class="entry-content">Last month, we examined how stock market volatility fluctuates over time. In this discussion, we’ll turn our focus to the bond market, using the US 10-year Treasury yield as a reference point.
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<p>* The IMF <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/imf-warns-of-heightened-recession-risk-slightly-lowers-global-growth-outlook-130037765.html">raises concerns</a> about slowing growth and increased recession risks.<br/>* France’s Macron faced sharp criticism in the West after his <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/macron-europe-china-taiwan-usa-outrage-rcna79090">comments</a> about Taiwan.<br/>* Treasury Secretary <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/11/economy/janet-yellen-comments-imf-spring-meeting/index.html">asserts</a> she's "not anticipating a downturn" in the US economy.<br/>* Fed officials are <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-11/fed-officials-signal-divide-over-whether-to-hike-rates-again?srnd=premium#xj4y7vzkg">divided</a> on the prospect of further rate hikes.<br/>* A former Pimco chief economist <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/11/fed-rate-hikes-will-end-next-month-former-pimco-economist-mcculley.html">predicts</a> that rate hikes will conclude next month.<br/>* The EPA <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/04/12/1169269936/electric-vehicles-emission-standards-tailpipes-fuel-economy">introduces regulations</a> aimed at boosting electric vehicle sales.<br/>* The question remains whether AI can outpace the market—<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/ai-can-write-a-song-but-it-cant-beat-the-market-6df50efd?mod=hp_lead_pos6">don't hold your breath</a>.<br/>* Small business sentiment in the US <a href="https://www.nfib.com/content/press-release/economy/small-business-optimism-declines-slightly-in-march/">declined</a> in March, remaining below the long-term average.<br/>* Tech stocks (XLK) drastically outperform the broader market (SPY) this year:</p>
<div class="entry-content">While recession forecasts for the US continue to circulate, expectations remain low as the first-quarter GDP report is set to be released on April 27 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, offering preliminary insights.
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<p>* The IMF <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65237286">forecasts</a> a dip in interest rates to pre-COVID levels.<br/>* Analysts believe that corporate America is entering an earnings recession, as reported by <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-earnings-recession-is-about-to-begin-213005398.html">analysts</a>.<br/>* For the first time in months, consumer inflation expectations <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2023/20230410">increased</a>.<br/>* A Fed survey reveals that consumers feel credit is tightening, indicating <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/10/economy/consumer-credit-inflation-expectations-fed-survey/index.html">more difficulty in obtaining credit.</a><br/>* A declining money supply is <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-11/tumbling-money-supply-alarms-economists-who-foresaw-inflation?srnd=economics-v2&leadSource=uverify%20wall">raising alarms</a> about elevated recession risks in the US, UK, and Eurozone.<br/>* China's consumer inflation <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/11/chinas-consumer-inflation-hits-18-month-low-amid-uneven-recovery.html">slowed</a> to its lowest pace since September 2021.<br/>* Eurozone retail sales <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/eurozone-retail-sales-fell-in-february-as-inflation-weighs-c1094a79">declined</a> in February, reversing the gains seen in January.<br/>* Bitcoin <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/04/11/bitcoin-breaks-above-30k-for-first-time-since-june-2022/">rose</a> above $30,000 for the first time since June.<br/>* Concerns persist about whether bank lending will <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/10/business/economy/bank-economy-credit-crunch.html">slow down</a> after recent industry turmoil.<br/>* Real Treasury yields in the US are now maintaining levels above 1%, marking the highest since 2010:</p>
<div class="entry-content">Corporate bonds issued by non-US entities experienced their fifth consecutive week of growth, showcasing the best performance among major asset classes based on ETFs during last week’s trading sessions.
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<p>* The US Navy <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/10/asia/us-navy-south-china-sea-freedom-on-navigation-intl-hnk-ml/index.html">exerts</a> its presence in the South China Sea, challenging Beijing amid escalating tensions near Taiwan.<br/>* The conclusion of the global rate-hiking cycle may be <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-09/end-may-be-in-sight-for-global-rate-hike-cycle-as-fed-nears-peak?srnd=economics-v2">on the horizon.</a><br/>* The US is rapidly <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/american-manufacturing-factory-jobs-comeback-3ce0c52c?mod=economy_lead_story">expanding</a> its manufacturing sector.<br/>* Concerns arise that the bond market may be <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world/bond-market-is-overplaying-the-risk-of-a-deep-recession-10386581.html">overestimating</a> the chances of a serious recession.<br/>* With many office spaces remaining unoccupied, it's a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/10/business/commercial-real-estate-banks-offices/index.html">risk factor</a> for banks.<br/>* Apple experienced a 41% decline in PC shipments during the first quarter, <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-40-plunge-pc-shipments-043700361.html">a significant downturn.</a><br/>* Tesla is set to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/09/business/tesla-megafactory-shanghai/index.html">launch a mega-factory</a> in China for battery production.<br/>* Recent housing data <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-market-data-suggests-sectors-downturn-coming-to-an-end-202631499.html">suggests</a> that a correction in the sector may be concluding.<br/>* The growth in US payrolls <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/04/07/jobs-report-march-economy-federal-reserve">slowed</a> in March:</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Spectacle-Expertise-Financial-Analysts-Perform/dp/B08ZBJFV9D?crid=ERJKWQY1T16C&keywords=The+Spectacle+of+Expertise%3A+Why+Financial+Analysts+Perform+in+the+Media&qid=1680882630&sprefix=the+spectacle+of+expertise+why+financial+analysts+perform+in+the+media%2Caps%2C223&sr=8-1&linkCode=li2&tag=thecapitalspe-20&linkId=6794fbbf02020d22f3e56602cbae0f4a&language=en_US&ref_=as_li_ss_il" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img decoding="async" class="alignleft" src="https://ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&ASIN=B08ZBJFV9D&Format=_SL160_&ID=AsinImage&MarketPlace=US&ServiceVersion=20070822&WS=1&tag=thecapitalspe-20&language=en_US" border="0"/> </a><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" src="https://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=thecapitalspe-20&language=en_US&l=li2&o=1&a=B08ZBJFV9D" alt="" width="1" height="1" border="0"/>● <a href="https://amzn.to/3Ki2fLe">The Spectacle of Expertise: Why Financial Analysts Perform in the Media</a> <br/>Alex Preda<br/><strong><a href="http://cup.columbia.edu/book/the-spectacle-of-expertise/9780231202473">Summary</a> via publisher (Columbia U. Press)</strong><br/>Financial experts have become highly visible across television, radio, and social media platforms. They offer investment guidance, interpret market trends, and analyze political impacts, wielding substantial influence through their media presence. Preda explores how these experts establish their authority and the factors that make their displays of financial expertise compelling to audiences.</p>
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<p>* The IMF <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/imf-head-warns-world-economy-is-set-for-weakest-near-term-growth-since-1990-144205510.html">predicts</a> the weakest near-term growth for the global economy since 1990.<br/>* Chinese President Xi Jinping expresses willingness to speak with Ukraine’s Zelenskyy, as <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-xi-jinping-zelenskyy-macron-von-der-leyen-ukraine-rcna78630">noted by EU leaders</a>.<br/>* The Brazilian President <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2023/04/07/the-world-needs-tranquillity-ukraine-urged-to-give-up-crimea-by-brazils-lula">suggests</a> Ukraine concede Crimea to Russia.<br/>* China's economic recovery is taking longer than anticipated, as reported by <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/07/chinas-economic-recovery-is-taking-longer-than-expected-citi-says.html">Citi analysts</a>.<br/>* The gap in US equity premium <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/stocks-havent-looked-this-unattractive-since-2007-78fc374c">drops</a> to its lowest since 2007.<br/>* US home prices are beginning to <a href="https://www.ibtimes.com/inflation-beginning-beat-home-prices-crash-ahead-3684063">lag behind inflation,</a> reversing prior trends.<br/>* Job cuts in the US <a href="https://www.challengergray.com/blog/job-cuts-rise-15-in-march-2023-up-319-from-same-month-last-year-highest-q1-since-2020/">rose by 15% in March</a> and surged 319% compared to last year's levels.<br/>* US jobless claims were <a href="https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-c4535e70c1702349f8165083df730f86">revised upward,</a> indicating more layoffs than previously reported.<br/>* Global economic growth has accelerated in March, according to <a href="https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/f6e97649cb0940f99469bc377171d1a3">PMI survey data:</a></p>
