This week, global markets are poised for a significant test as investors contend with three pressing concerns that could shake market confidence: the prospect of slower economic growth, the Supreme Court’s recent ruling declaring President Trump’s tariffs illegal, and the looming threat of a US military strike on Iran.
● Mastering Gold and Silver Markets: Insights from a Legendary Bullion Bank Trader
Robert Gottlieb
Summary via publisher (Wiley)
In this insightful work, veteran precious metals trader Robert Gottlieb shares a captivating blend of personal experiences and educational insights focused on bullion trading from the perspective of a banker. His narrative chronicles his journey from a public accounting firm to becoming the Global Head of Precious Metals Trading and Sales at some of the largest bullion banks worldwide. Gottlieb elucidates the vital role bullion banks play within the global precious metals framework and details how financial and futures markets promote liquidity and hedging strategies for their clients.
CAPE Ratios and Long-Term Returns
Rui Ma (La Trobe University), et al.
January 2026
This study reveals that 10-year equity market returns exhibit significantly higher predictability based on price-earnings ratios than previously acknowledged. The conventional method links the current index price, determined by current components, to past earnings. By calculating the cyclically adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio with aligned prices and earnings, and employing a more advanced regression analysis, out-of-sample R^2 values exceed 50%. The Component CAPE ratio emphasizes individual stock CAPE ratios weighted by market capitalization, diverging from traditional earnings weighting.
The US economy is expected to report its third consecutive quarter of growth in tomorrow’s delayed GDP update for Q4, as indicated by the median of various nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. Although growth is anticipated to slow compared to Q3, the increase is expected to be substantial enough to keep discussions of recession largely at bay.
Consumer inflation was lower than anticipated in January, yet this development has not altered the market’s expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain its target interest rate unchanged until June. However, the bond market appears ready to challenge this timeline by pricing in an earlier rate reduction.
In accordance with recent trends, the benchmark 10-year yield remained close to its “fair value” estimate for January, determined by the average from three models analyzed by Capital Spectator.
By executive order, the headquarters of The Capital Spectator is closed today. Consultations will resume tomorrow (Tuesday, February 17) without requiring congressional approval. In the meantime, be sure to check out this week’s edition of The ETF Portfolio Strategist, our sister publication. I also hereby veto any legislative work for the remainder of the day.
● Finding Value in Numbers: The Essential Investing Toolkit to Win on Wall Street
Ehsan Ehsani
Summary via publisher (Columbia U. Press)
Success as an investor hinges on having a robust framework. No effective investing framework can function without quantitative analysis. Despite their intimidating nature, quantitative techniques significantly enhance the quality of investment analysis. Written for those without a technical background, Finding Value in Numbers serves as a practical guide for how thoughtful investors can leverage numbers—not merely to process data but to improve decision-making. Ehsan Ehsani offers a value investing lens on how to utilize quantitative tools to identify, analyze, and act on overlooked investment opportunities in the stock market and beyond.
While recession risk remains minimal, the rapid GDP growth observed in recent quarters is anticipated to moderate in the upcoming delayed fourth-quarter report from the government, based on median estimates from various nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator.
Predicting future events can be challenging, as the saying goes. But does the collective wisdom of crowds offer any advantage? Research suggests that it might. By combining forecasts from various models, ensemble forecasting has demonstrated a consistent ability to outperform individual models. A new aspect of this concept emerges from betting markets, as recent studies have shown that their predictions often align favorably with more traditional forecasting methods.
This week’s economic landscape presents a series of challenges for investors. With growth rates moderating and potential geopolitical tensions on the horizon, market participants must navigate these uncertainties carefully. Insightful analyses and historical context will be vital as they strive to make informed decisions in an increasingly complex environment.
