Cuban Collapse: Potential Security Threats on the US Doorstep, Warns The National Interest

Recent discussions have raised concerns that a potential U.S. military action in Cuba could evoke memories of the Vietnam War, especially if the Cuban populace engages in widespread, non-violent resistance against foreign intervention. Similar apprehensions were voiced regarding Venezuela before the U.S. imposed its economic influence there through a military operation that resulted in the abduction of its president and the loss of 32 Cuban soldiers.

However, like Vietnam, Cuba presents formidable challenges for any occupying force. Even if Cuba were economically weakened, it would remain a tough territory to control. Victor Sciamarelli, a reader of NC, recently highlighted a significant moment from David Halberstam’s book, “The Best and the Brightest.” In this account, Marine General David Shoup, a World War II veteran, shared a powerful visual:

During a meeting with JFK and his advisors about invading Cuba, Shoup presented overlay maps — one of the U.S. and one of Cuba. To the surprise of many, Cuba turned out to be much larger than anticipated, stretching over 800 miles, roughly the distance from New York to Chicago. He then placed a small red dot on the map, which represented Tarawa, explaining that it took 18,000 marines three days to conquer it.

While today’s Cuban population may appear weakened after enduring over sixty years of U.S. sanctions and a near-total energy blockade, they have successfully resisted numerous coup attempts and incursions in the past. The very fabric of Cuban society is resilient, as noted even by Chris Sabatini, a senior fellow at Chatham House.

“The Cuban regime, for all of its sins, has basically survived under a defensive crouch…. it is built to resist.”@ChrisSabatini on the nature of the regime in Cuba and its relationship with the United States. pic.twitter.com/RX3sohR7o3

— Chatham House (@ChathamHouse) June 7, 2026

The U.S. experience in Afghanistan illustrates that even a low-intensity insurgency can inflict sustained casualties and financial strain, leading to political exhaustion and escalating troop commitments, despite conventional military superiority. This suggests that a U.S. invasion of Cuba might not signify dominance but could instead unleash regional turmoil of unprecedented magnitude:

A military operation in Cuba would bring to mind historical instances of gunboat diplomacy and covert actions throughout the hemisphere. Political consequences could ripple quickly across the Latin American region, prompting nationalist movements to coalesce against perceived U.S. interventionism. Governments keen on maintaining relations with Washington might face mounting domestic pressure to distance themselves from the American operation. Additionally, migration pressures could destabilize the region, with significant refugee movements towards Florida and nearby Caribbean nations, creating humanitarian and logistical crises.

This scenario could materialize while U.S. military forces are already stretched thin and its supplies are greatly diminished. Furthermore, Washington is actively interfering in other Latin American nations with governments that prioritize sovereignty, including Mexico, Colombia, and Nicaragua, posing risks of further backlash.

Amid these tensions, the only strategy to prevent chaos in Cuba — and the prospect of a security vacuum or military conflict — is to foster dialogue, echoing Winston Churchill’s famous principle of “jaw-jaw.” Currently, however, signs of progress appear limited. Reports indicate that Cuba is distributing weapons to civilians in anticipation of a potential U.S. invasion, according to the Venezuelan newspaper Versión Final.

Statements from former President Trump regarding “dealing with Cuba” post-Iran conflict are also concerning. If developments in Venezuela post-Maduro serve as a guide, “dealing with Cuba” may mean compelling Havana to make significant economic concessions to the U.S., such as opening markets to American investors.

Additionally, it’s notable that Russian President Vladimir Putin mentioned discussions with Trump about Cuba, although specific details were not disclosed. He only referred to sending a Russian tanker to Havana, which docked there in late March, with no further oil shipments since then.

“Cuba is a friendly country, and our relations have evolved over decades. The U.S. administration is aware of this. Our cooperation with Cuba continues,” President Putin stated.

Whether this was intended as a warning to the U.S. or as part of ongoing negotiations for a gradual transition in Havana is uncertain. Nevertheless, Moscow seems committed to strengthening economic ties with Cuba, even as the island grapples with the threat of a crisis fueled by U.S. actions.

Just days after Putin’s remarks, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernishenko reiterated Russia’s readiness to invest in Cuba, despite mounting pressure from the U.S. During the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, he noted that around 90 Russian companies are seeking to export meat, dairy, and fish products to Cuba, emphasizing Moscow’s capacity to provide solutions in IT, cybersecurity, telemedicine, and business automation.