In recent years, the agricultural landscape has faced increasing challenges, largely due to climate change and economic factors. As the world grapples with changing weather patterns, farmers are struggling to adapt their traditional practices. This article explores the experiences of farmers in Jambhali, India, highlighting the profound impacts of climate change on their livelihoods.
By Sanket Jain, an award-winning journalist and documentary photographer from Maharashtra, India. His insightful work has been featured in various prominent publications, including MIT Technology Review and Wired. With over 15 journalism awards to his name, you can explore more of his narratives at Yale Climate Connections.
In Jambhali, a village of 5,000 residents in Western India, farmers have traditionally relied on the wisdom of 80-year-old Satgonda Patil for guidance on planting and harvesting crops. For decades, Patil’s keen instincts and extensive knowledge helped him and his neighbors thrive while minimizing weather-related losses.
However, this reliance on tradition began to falter about five years ago. Rain patterns became erratic—arriving later and sometimes earlier than expected. Summers extended, and pests emerged at unpredictable times, leading to significant financial setbacks for local farmers.
In October 2025, Patil planted cauliflower on his 1.5-acre plot but was unable to harvest the crop, which succumbed to a soilborne fungal disease promoted by rising temperatures. A month later, he attempted to grow cabbage, but pests struck early, rapidly overwhelming his efforts. Despite spending more than 50,000 Indian rupees (approximately $527) on pesticides, the crop perished.
Patil reflected on the issue, stating that it is no longer just a matter of experiencing a single disastrous season. He noted, “As temperatures rise each year, so do pest invasions. No matter how much I spray, these pests just won’t go away.”
This sentiment echoed around the globe, as climate change disrupts the stable seasonal patterns farmers have long depended on. To cope, many have adopted new irrigation techniques, altered their crop choices, or shifted planting schedules, yet financial losses continue to escalate. According to one study, these adaptations may mitigate only about 23% of anticipated global crop losses by 2050 and 34% by century’s end.
For every 1°C increase in global temperatures, food production is expected to diminish enough to cut the average daily food supply by roughly 120 calories per person, accounting for about 4.4% of recommended intake. While global agriculture currently generates an excess of food, this bounty remains unevenly distributed due to issues like income inequality, price fluctuations, and infrastructural gaps, leaving many facing hunger.
Even modest declines in production heighten the risk of food insecurity. The Paris Agreement aims to cap warming at 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, yet current policy paths suggest a trajectory toward warming well above 2°C this century, exacerbating potential losses.
The Impact of Warming Oceans on Rainfall Patterns
Climate change is fundamentally altering the relationships and patterns that previously informed reliable seasonal forecasts. A study published in Nature Communications reveals that the connections between ocean temperatures and rainfall are shifting, thereby reducing the reliability of seasonal predictions in certain areas.
Unlike land and air, which react swiftly to temperature fluctuations, oceans retain and release heat over prolonged periods, creating a “memory” effect, explained Efi Foufoula-Georgiou, a professor at the University of California, Irvine. This affects natural cycles like El Niño and La Niña, which influence atmospheric movement and, correspondingly, rainfall.
Although some regions may see improved forecasts, these will need continual updates to reflect evolving climate dynamics.
Researchers are actively mapping the predictability of seasonal rainfall across the globe.
“One significant finding is a decrease in predictability in northern Amazonia during the Northern Hemisphere winter, complicating seasonal rainfall forecasting,” said Phong Le, a scientist at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in the U.S. Conversely, predictability is anticipated to increase in many tropical areas during specific seasons.
Furthermore, climate change is shifting the timing of seasonal events. A study published in Science highlights how these changes can occur unevenly across different species, leading to ecological misalignments and unpredictable outcomes.
“Even minor alterations in seasonal timing, such as floods arriving a week earlier, can have extensive ecological repercussions,” stated Jonathan Tonkin, a professor at the University of Canterbury in New Zealand. Since species are interconnected, changes in one can provoke shifts throughout entire ecosystems.
When Traditional Signs Fail
Patil lamented the unpredictability of seasonal indicators he once relied on. “At times, it seems like it will rain, only to be followed by scorching heat. It’s become so unpredictable,” he explained.
During our conversation in March, with temperatures exceeding 38°C (100.4°F), the television forecast called for rain that evening. Leaning on his walking stick, he moved toward his sorghum field 100 meters away.
“If it rains even for 10 minutes, I will lose everything,” he said, scrutinizing the crop that was ready for harvest but vulnerable to even a brief shower. Thankfully, the forecast proved incorrect, and no rain fell.
Yallappa Naik, another farmer from Nandani village, faced his own challenges. Following the advice to reroute after a failing crop, he planted sugarcane in June 2023 based on decades of experience. However, heavy rainfall flooded his field for over ten days, destroying the crop.
In subsequent attempts with sorghum, wheat, and other vegetables, extreme heat, untimely rains, or unfamiliar pests led to further failures.
By October 2024, much of his sorghum crop had faltered due to weeds that spread rapidly, returning despite multiple clearings.
“In the past fifty years, I had never encountered such an influx of weeds,” he remarked, ultimately losing $316 that season.
Naik is not alone in his struggles. Research indicates that climate change is contributing to increased variability in the Indian monsoon, with more drastic swings between dry spells and intense rainfall.
“The Indian summer monsoon has become considerably less predictable in recent decades,” noted Hamza Varikoden, senior scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. Instead of consistent rainfall, modern monsoons in South Asia are characterized by erratic bursts of heavy rain followed by prolonged dry periods.
“The traditional cues farmers have relied upon are now less reliable, complicating agricultural planning,” said Catherine George, a doctoral candidate at the Catholic University of Eichstätt-Ingolstadt in Germany.
Climate change is a significant force behind these shifts in precipitation patterns. With the atmosphere capable of holding an additional 6-10% moisture for each 1°C rise in temperature, heavier rains are expected. Climate models predict that while overall rainfall may increase in future years, it might also bring greater variability and extreme events.
Adaptation Amidst Growing Challenges
In response to these challenges, Naik has narrowed his farming activities to a three-month window. Most of the year, he considers it too risky to cultivate crops.
Now, he opts for short-duration crops like beets, which reduce his exposure to loss.
Experts suggest that solutions for increasingly erratic weather involve not just improved forecasts but a reevaluation of preparedness for extreme conditions. This might include adjusting planting schedules based on updated climate information, selecting crop varieties more resistant to heat or short dry spells, and diversifying to spread risk, explained Ancy Pushpaleela, a researcher at Cochin University of Science and Technology.
Moreover, farmers can enhance their resilience to irregular rainfall by implementing water storage solutions, conserving soil moisture, and optimizing irrigation, Pushpaleela added. More effective management of groundwater could also offer protection against both drought and intense downpours.
“The aim is to transition from relying on precise forecasts to managing risks, ensuring communities are better equipped for an array of future scenarios,” stated Foufoula-Georgiou.
For Patil, however, the loss extends beyond financial implications; it represents the diminishing of a trusted agricultural system he has spent his life mastering. He reminisced about a time when bountiful harvests filled his home with grain, contrasting sharply with the current struggle to secure two meals a day.
