The ongoing geopolitical tensions involving Iran are escalating once again, with numerous indicators suggesting another potential crisis. As markets close for the weekend, key figures such as Kushner and Witkoff are heading to Pakistan for discussions, while U.S. military forces are gathering throughout West Asia. The atmosphere is thick with uncertainty, drawing parallels to past surprise attacks on Iran.
Note: I’m posting this on a Friday night in Central Time, and if any significant developments occur overnight, I’ll provide updates in the morning.
Can This Ceasefire Survive Negotiations?
A key indication of the situation’s seriousness was a tweet from Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi, announcing his travels to Islamabad, Pakistan.
Embarking on timely tour of Islamabad, Muscat, and Moscow.
Purpose of my visits is to closely coordinate with our partners on bilateral matters and consult on regional developments.
Our neighbors are our priority.
— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) April 24, 2026
Later that evening, it was reported that President Trump’s personal envoys, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, were traveling to Pakistan for further negotiations.
The BBC highlighted some confusion about the negotiations:
It’s currently the middle of the night in Islamabad, where Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi recently arrived.
The Pakistani capital is preparing for a second round of peace talks between the U.S. and Iran, with road closures implemented for the past six days.
The White House announced earlier that special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner would be dispatched to Islamabad on Sunday because the Iranians demanded “in-person” discussions.
However, Iranian state media has reported that no negotiations with the U.S. are scheduled for Araghchi’s visit, who will be focusing on reviewing “bilateral matters” with Pakistan, as stated by the Iranian embassy.
Given the history of previous negotiations amidst the ongoing Ramadan War, these developments appear troubling, especially in light of Vice-President J.D. Vance’s absence.
Signs of Military Buildup
Various reports on social media have raised alarms about another potential conflict between the U.S. and Iran, with unverified information suggesting a significant military buildup.
The U.S. is amassing forces at Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE 🇦🇪🇺🇸
A total of 12 U.S. Navy F/A-18 fighter jets have been deployed to the base.
Satellite imagery from April 20 reveals 7 U.S. Air Force aerial refueling aircraft, along with a C-17A strategic transport aircraft. pic.twitter.com/kPLNPzBZVJ
— Egypt’s Intel Observer (@EGYOSINT) April 24, 2026
Footage taken by a passenger at Ben Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv appears to show multiple U.S. KC-46 Pegasus and KC-135 Stratotanker refueling aircraft on ground. pic.twitter.com/iUe3VciKif
— GMan | GMan’s Chronicle (@FAB87F) April 24, 2026
In response to these tensions, Iran has indicated its readiness to act:
BREAKING: A source close to Ghalibaf states Iran has prepared for “the largest missile launch in history” targeting Israel and U.S.-allied Arab states, ready to launch “upon observing any signs of any strike” this weekend.
— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) April 24, 2026
Additionally, disregard reports that Trump tweeted and deleted a claim about U.S. planes using Armenian airstrips to attack Iran. This is misinformation, though it’s curious to consider the motives behind it.
Bessent’s Economic Fury
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent shared on X earlier Friday:
Discussions with countries, including our Gulf and Asian allies, about U.S. dollar swap lines are a routine part of ongoing dialogues that the U.S. Treasury has maintained for several years. These conversations signify the U.S. dollar’s dominance and the strength of America’s economic foundation.
Additional swap lines can bolster our economy by reinforcing dollar utilization and liquidity on an international scale, ensuring smooth operations in dollar funding markets, promoting trade and investment with the United States, and, in potential stress scenarios, preventing disorganized sales of U.S. assets and upheavals to U.S. markets, businesses, and households.
Many of these nations possess robust sovereign balance sheets and considerable dollar reserves — surpassing those of numerous major economies with which we maintain permanent swap agreements. I commend our allies for their strategic foresight and vigilant risk management by seeking additional financial safeguards during periods of market stability.
Extending permanent swap lines could be a significant initial step in establishing new U.S. dollar funding centers in the Gulf and Asia.
Dollar dominance and reserve currency status are maintained through continuous, long-term initiatives, including counteracting the rise of problematic alternative payment systems.
Under @POTUS, this represents American Economic Leadership in action.
In response, Iranian Parliamentary Speaker MB Ghalibaf remarked:
Swaps given “to prevent disorderly sale of U.S. assets.” Translation: some holders can’t sell. ICYDK: hidden single-digit % sale cap limits some institutional holders.
The door closes if things escalate. Exit while you can.
Their frontline is the yield curve.https://t.co/cVS8UehmAr
— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) April 24, 2026
To provide context, here’s an excerpt from a recent New York Times article that Speaker Ghalibaf referenced:
“Swap lines, whether provided by the Federal Reserve or the Treasury, aim to maintain order in dollar funding markets and to prevent a disordered sale of U.S. assets,” Bessent stated. “The swap line would be beneficial for both the U.A.E. and the U.S.”
A currency swap involves the U.S. purchasing the UAE’s currency, the dirham, to facilitate more dollars for its oil transactions.
Senator Chris Van Hollen of Maryland raised questions regarding the rationale for providing economic aid to the UAE, noting President Trump’s and his family’s financial ties to the nation. The Trump administration has faced scrutiny over the conflict’s costs in Iran, which many deem unnecessary.
If Trump and his associates believe that U.S. shale producers will rescue them, they should reconsider their outlook. According to a Financial Times report (archived):
U.S. shale executives surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated they do not expect a significant increase in production over the next two years due to the chaos instigated by the Iran conflict.
In a poll of over 100 oil and gas companies, 43 percent of executives stated they do not foresee daily production increasing by more than 250,000 barrels per day in 2026. For 2027, 32 percent anticipated an increase of more than 250,000 barrels per day, but not exceeding 500,000 barrels daily.
Who is emerging from this standoff as the victor? According to one former White House energy advisor, it’s Iran:
⭕️ Energy Analyst: Iran Has Trump “By the Throat” on Hormuz and Knows It
Robert McNally, founder of Rapidan Energy Group and former White House energy advisor, stated to Bloomberg that Iran is “firmly positioned” and believes it is prevailing in the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. pic.twitter.com/lBtjLSQjRf
— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) April 24, 2026
He echoes several dubious Western narratives regarding “Iran’s divided leadership,” suggesting that a military campaign to seize the Strait of Hormuz would only last around four weeks — an assertion that one might interpret cautiously.
Moreover, Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, an instructor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, provided his perspective:
We know the blockade won’t collapse Iran’s economy because it has been tried before… by Trump!
During the latter half of 2019, Iranian crude oil exports plummeted to zero, storage facilities became full, and Iran halved its production of both crude oil and refined fuels. pic.twitter.com/hXzkv8bz1p
— Esfandyar Batmanghelidj (@yarbatman) April 24, 2026
Greasy Pete Had a Heckuva Presser
A reporter confronts Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth about a leaked report indicating a six-month timeline to clear the Strait of Hormuz. Hegseth visibly becomes angry about the leak and declines to comment. The Trump administration is attempting to conceal its strategic failure in Iran. pic.twitter.com/627Ns6vLPg
— Furkan Gözükara (@FurkanGozukara) April 24, 2026
TMZ: When you give these orders for extreme violence, what goes through your mind and body? Is there an adrenaline rush?
Hegseth: That’s an entirely TMZ question. pic.twitter.com/BmLyfuUpDo
— Acyn (@Acyn) April 24, 2026
Pentagon advisor Elbridge Colby also sent a revealing email regarding NATO “ally” Spain:
An internal Pentagon email discusses potential sanctions against NATO allies perceived as uncooperative regarding U.S. operations in the Iran conflict, including the suspension of Spain from the alliance and reevaluation of the U.S. position on Britain’s claim to the Falkland Islands, as reported by an anonymous official.
The options outlined in Elbridge Colby’s note express frustration at some allies’ reluctance or refusal to provide the U.S. with access, basing, and overflight permissions — known as ABO — for the Iran war.
Hezbollah, the Economist, Prostate Cancer Vexing Netanyahu
Hezbollah continues to maintain a strong presence in Southern Lebanon:
Hezbollah publishes another FPV video from Bint Jbeil showing them striking a field commander’s vehicle. https://t.co/Mutx0rsn7n pic.twitter.com/li1B9SSnk4
— barry with the NED (@bonzerbarry) April 24, 2026
In a recent piece, The Economist criticized Netanyahu for his “open-ended” military engagements:
President Trump has grown weary of the infinite nature of Israel’s wars and the disruptions they have caused. Arguably, he recognizes what Israel—its government and many citizens—are unwilling to confront: that these ongoing conflicts have been failures. “They dragged on without a clear diplomatic goal or outcome,” stated Jeremy Issacharoff, a former Israeli ambassador.
Israel’s security doctrine, inspired by Ben-Gurion, revolved around three Hebrew principles: harta’a (deterrence); hatra’a (early warning); and hachra’a (decisive action). The essence was that a small country in a hostile region could not afford to wage prolonged conflicts frequently. Instead, it needed to exert overwhelming military power to deter enemies, have the ability to detect impending attacks, and act quickly, ideally preemptively, to secure victories in enemy territory. Additionally, Ben-Gurion argued for a “foreign policy of peace” as a crucial element of security, emphasizing the necessity for alliances and international legitimacy to secure Israel’s future.
Today’s leaders appear to have abandoned many of these fundamental principles, engaging in lengthy military campaigns that have eroded Israel’s international legitimacy, particularly evident in Gaza.
This rhetoric reflects the broader narrative attempting to mitigate Israel’s failures by scapegoating Netanyahu, while minimizing the gravity of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
However, Netanyahu faces further personal challenges.
Recently, he disclosed a prostate cancer diagnosis, as reported by The Washington Post (archive):
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Friday that he has been diagnosed with and treated for early-stage prostate cancer. He delayed this information for two months to prevent it from being exploited amid the conflict with Iran.
In a statement on X, Netanyahu mentioned he requested the postponement of his annual health report to prevent its release “at the peak of the conflict, to avoid further propaganda from the Iranian regime.”
The report disclosed his surgery for an enlarged prostate in December 2024 and that during a routine follow-up, early-stage prostate cancer was detected.
The director of oncology at Hadassah Medical Center stated that Netanyahu opted for targeted radiation therapy two and a half months ago.
Accounting for Amazon’s Blasted Data Centers
Forbes reported incidents involving Amazon Web Services data centers affected by drone strikes:
In early March, drone attacks damaged AWS data centers in Bahrain and the UAE, causing substantial service disruptions. Over a month later, AWS dashboards indicated that certain services from the impacted areas remained “disrupted.” Amazon processed credit refunds for users impacted in March, incurring an estimated loss of $150 million. Data centers typically have extensive insurance policies, but most exclude military conflict damages, says Tom Harper, an insurance broker.
In early April, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard unveiled a target list that encompassed facilities belonging to Microsoft, Oracle, and Amazon, and threatened a joint venture worth over $30 billion launched at the White House last year.
Kurdish Corruption Facing Consequences?
There are rumors linking this to an earlier failed effort to recruit Kurdish militias against Iran, as highlighted by The Amargi:
The U.S. Justice Department has filed a civil forfeiture complaint aiming to seize a Beverly Hills mansion believed to be purchased with funds from a scheme that defrauded the U.S. military and bribed Mansour Barzani, a senior Peshmerga official in Iraq.
The complaint alleges that a Virginia-based defense contractor and others extracted over $700 million from the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency via fuel delivery contracts related to Operation Inherent Resolve.
According to the allegations, the contractor’s officers consented to pay General Mansour Barzani a bribe of $0.25 per liter for exclusive fuel delivery rights at Erbil International Airport, effectively blocking competing contractors and securing noncompetitive contracts at inflated prices.
It’s claimed that around $30 million from this scheme was subsequently transferred into a trust for Barzani and utilized to purchase and renovate the Beverly Hills property.
Talking Heads
In today’s video roundup, we welcome insights from Alon Mizrahi, along with Katie Halper and Aaron Mate from Useful Idiots:
This week’s focus is on the latest developments in Trump’s regime-change efforts in Iran and how they’ve spilled over into Lebanon, including the assassination of journalist Amal Khalil.
Khalil was killed in a “double tap” strike while reporting in South Lebanon: first her car was hit, then the house where she sought refuge. Israeli soldiers blocked rescue workers from reaching her, and she ultimately succumbed under the rubble.
She is among hundreds of journalists who have been targeted and murdered by Israeli forces since October 7th.
To discuss Khalil’s death and the ongoing regime-change conflict in Iran as well as the Israeli hesitation to invade Lebanon, we’ve invited Mohamad Hasan Sweidan, a researcher and academic from Beirut.
Useful Idiots: What accounts for Hezbollah’s resilience despite losing their leader and facing significant setbacks? Many initially believed they were on the verge of collapse, and yet they continue to challenge Israel effectively. What factors enable Hezbollah, which many thought was nearing its end, to persist and remain militarily effective?
Mohamad Hasan Sweidan outlines three primary reasons:
Firstly, Hezbollah possesses a strong religious ideology that does not allow it to retreat. Their belief is to continue resisting the oppressor until the end.
Secondly, they have no choice; if they fail to regroup, Hezbollah will face annihilation. Their survival is intrinsically bound to their continued fight.
Lastly, Hezbollah represents a substantial faction of the Lebanese populace. Should they disarm, other Lebanese would take up arms to defend the homeland. History has shown that the only successful defense comes from organized resistance.
As a bonus, Jeffrey Sachs shares insights on Tucker Carlson’s platform:
Jeffrey Sachs discusses the true origins of the Iran war and the impending economic fallout.
(0:00) Where Does the Iran War Go From Here?
(10:13) Iran’s Growing Power Since the War Began
(14:37) The Source of Hostility Toward Iran
(24:37) The Lies Surrounding Nuclear Weapons… pic.twitter.com/yHg5BvY3Qp— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) April 24, 2026
In conclusion, the evolving situation between the U.S. and Iran presents a landscape filled with volatility and potential repercussions. As tensions heighten, the international community watches closely, hoping for a resolution that steers clear of further conflict.
