On Tuesday, President Trump made a significant decision to unilaterally extend the ceasefire in the Iran War, despite Iran’s refusal to send representatives to Islamabad for further negotiations.
In light of this, I’ll delve into some intentional disinformation campaigns circulating in the West, analyze how the Trump administration is influencing energy markets, and present two opposing videos discussing whether there’s a method behind America’s approach.
Let’s dive in.
Threats Exchanged to Start the Day
Trump began the day with a phone interview on CNBC with Joe Kernan, during which he adopted a combative stance.
Kernan opened the conversation by making an unfounded assertion that Iran had agreed to send representatives for a meeting in Islamabad with Vice President J.D. Vance, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff:
Joe Kernan: Tehran has publicly confirmed it will send representatives to meet with Vice President Vance. What are your expectations?
Donald Trump: As I said two days ago, when they claimed they wouldn’t send representatives, I predicted they would have to. They really have no choice. I’m optimistic that we’ll achieve a great deal. They have to comply; we’ve diminished their navy, air force, and leadership, which complicates matters, but I believe these leaders are now more rational.
What is happening is regime change, even if I didn’t explicitly state that was my intent. But whether indirectly or not, it’s been accomplished.
I believe we hold a strong negotiating position compared to what previous presidents have failed to achieve over the last 47 years.
Trump then proceeded to make numerous dubious claims, including the assertion that 42,000 unarmed Iranian protesters had been killed recently and that Iran’s missile stockpile had been decimated, all of which Kernan failed to contest. Kernan then added this provocative question:
Kernan: I know you care deeply about the Iranian people. Is this concern part of your motivation for these actions?
The ceasefire deadline is tomorrow. If progress is evident, would you consider extending it, even if just temporarily?
Trump: Honestly, I anticipate military action because I find it a more effective stance. The military is fully prepared and eager.
Listening to this rhetoric can be infuriating. Americans frustrated by this misguided leadership should also channel their anger towards our extensively propagandized corporate media, which contributes to Trump’s unchallenged narrative.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant added economic pressure:
As POTUS has emphasized, the U.S. Navy will continue its blockade of Iranian ports. Soon, the oil storage on Kharg Island will be full, leading to the shut-in of Iranian oil wells. This blockade directly threatens the regime’s main revenue sources.
The U.S. Treasury will maintain maximum pressure through economic avenues to systematically weaken Tehran’s financial operations.
Any person or vessel aiding these activities through covert trade and finance risks exposure to U.S. sanctions.
We will also continue to seize funds misappropriated by the corrupt leadership intended for the Iranian people.
My feed on X.com displayed some intriguing reactions to Bessant’s statements; open to view Iranian TV’s response below:
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) April 22, 2026
For those who believe Trump and Bessant that the U.S. blockade is strangling Iran, the Financial Times reported:
At least 34 tankers connected to Iran have successfully bypassed the U.S. blockade since its inception, including multiple carrying Iranian oil, despite Trump’s declaration of the blockade’s effectiveness.
Visual aids help clarify the situation regarding the blockade’s effectiveness:
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) April 22, 2026
Iran’s Sass Game Remains Strong
On the Iranian side, officials today doubled down on their firm stance, issuing dire warnings:
Everyone must vacate the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. Sailors on all vessels in the Persian Gulf should prepare for evacuation. This is especially urgent for ships near the Strait of Hormuz, which will be targeted first. Time is running out.
— Seyed Mohammad Marandi (@s_m_marandi) April 21, 2026
A video surfaced showing Iranians celebrating the end of the ceasefire:
The Ghadr-110 missile showcased at a public gathering in Vanak Square, Tehran!
The Ghadr-110 is a liquid-fueled medium-range ballistic missile with an estimated range of 1,800-2,000 km, capable of striking targets across the Middle East, including Israel and U.S. bases… pic.twitter.com/83mcQ5DXj5
— DD Geopolitics (@DD_Geopolitics) April 21, 2026
Subsequently, reports emerged that Vice President J.D. Vance would not make the trip to Islamabad.
Interestingly, the well-known D.C. outlet Axios had claimed that both Iranian and American delegations were confirmed for the negotiations, as they often seem to disseminate uninformed reports.
Things Get Real and TACOs Are Served
In retaliation, the markets reacted, driving up oil prices.
Then, Iran left the Trump team waiting as Tasnim News reported via Iran Wire:
Tasnim News Agency, which has ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), announced that Iran will not partake in the negotiations in Pakistan, reiterating their exclusion from what they described as an “American theater.”
The agency added that Iran’s attendance hinges on meeting specific preconditions, with one significant stick being the naval blockade, which they had communicated through a Pakistani intermediary.
Navigating the blockade and addressing additional demands from the U.S. pose major hurdles to any meaningful dialogue.
Until “fundamental obstacles are removed, and a clear outlook for an acceptable agreement forms,” Tehran has no interest in participating in this “American theater.”
And so, TACOs were served.
If It’s Tuesday, That Must Be a TACO
Perhaps Susie Wiles inadvertently leaked some graphic into Trump’s information ecosystem:
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) April 22, 2026
Or maybe someone shared this Pentagon report, via NBC:
A Pentagon intelligence assessment indicates Iran still maintains substantial military capabilities.
This contrasts with public statements made by President Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who claimed Iranian military forces were “wiped out.”
This significant change in tone for Trump didn’t go unnoticed. Luke Broadwater of the NY Times remarked that this represented “a starkly different tone from the American president.”
https://t.co/1v7ToS3ZtS pic.twitter.com/xS7nA0UAge
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) April 21, 2026
Iranian security analyst Mahdi Mohammadi, reportedly close to Iranian Parliamentary Speaker MB Ghalibaf,
tweeted a response (translated by Grok):
Trump’s ceasefire extension is meaningless. The losing side cannot dictate terms. The continuation of the blockade is akin to bombardment and requires a military response. Furthermore, the ceasefire extension appears to be a tactic to buy time for a surprise strike. It’s time for Iran to take the initiative.
CNN provided insight into Trump’s motives (via Simplicius):
Trump’s ceasefire deadline was approaching, and Air Force Two was prepared for Vice President JD Vance’s departure to Pakistan for the next round of discussions. But the administration faced a dilemma: no response from Iran.
Days prior, the U.S. had delivered a list of broad deal points, but no reply had been received.
As Trump’s unilateral ceasefire leaves open the possibility for escalation, Will Schryver outlines potential choices for Iran:
Iran faces a distinct choice:
🔹 wait for CSG-10 (USS Bush League CVN-77) to arrive shortly, after which the U.S. will initiate a massive attack.
🔹 consider the ceasefire concluded, resuming unrestricted war.
In either case, conflict resumes.
— Will Schryver (@imetatronink) April 21, 2026
Additionally, Simplicius posits that the war may not persist due to U.S. limitations:
In just a few weeks, the U.S. has exhausted many of its rare and valuable munitions, which are produced in limited quantities.
From this, we can reasonably conclude that it cannot be Iran yielding first. Given U.S. production constraints, prolonging the conflict risks depletion of its arsenal, exposing vulnerabilities. Thus, Trump’s bluster serves as mere intimidation meant to pressure Iran into concessions.
However, we shouldn’t become complacent. Patricia Marins cautions that Trump and Netanyahu still have significant strategies available:
Four more options remain at their disposal: occupying ports, attempting new collaboration with Gulf nations, navigating Hormuz with destroyers, and potential tactical nuclear weapon use.
Any of these choices carries risks of escalating the situation, leading to substantial casualties and subsequent effects on public opinion—be it dissent or support for military actions.
Additionally, discussions of nuclear options are likely ongoing, with previous strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities having already occurred. This suggests a willingness to accept the risks associated with a nuclear incident in Iran.
Thus, we may be edging closer to considering tactical nuclear usage, as both Trump and Netanyahu are impulsive political actors likely to disregard long-term consequences of their military decisions.
Enough speculation—let’s address the reality that has unfolded.
Trump Thrashes Around on Truth Social
The media backlash clearly affected Trump as he vented on Truth Social, attacking the Wall Street Journal for claiming he was naïve regarding Iran.
An IDIOT at The Wall Street Journal’s Editorial Board, Elliot Kaufman, wrote an Op-Ed titled, “The Iranians Take Trump for a Sucker.” Seriously? For 47 years, they’ve exploited our trust with every president but me—what did I give them? A devastated country!
Rupert Murdoch must have instructed him to write it this way; The Wall Street Journal has lost its credibility, becoming just another failing political “rag!”
Next, we dive into the realm of disinformation as Trump made a sensational claim about eight women allegedly facing execution by the IRGC, raising eyebrows and prompting further inquiry (read the tweet below for context):
There’s an Israeli influence operation named “Generative AI for Good” creating AI “victims” of Iran to push for regime change. They held a conference last week in NYC.
Here’s a clip of a deepfake propaganda video they released recently. https://t.co/mr90jCO5sp pic.twitter.com/LymldFx7wQ
— Chris Menahan 🇺🇸 (@infolibnews) April 21, 2026
This made me recall this report from Sam Biddle at The Intercept which I intended to include in an earlier roundup:
Al-Fassel and Pishtaz News appear to be typical news websites with well-designed platforms and active social media. They cover significant geopolitical events in Arabic and Farsi, as well as English. Al-Fassel states its mission is “to investigate events of great significance often ignored by local media.” Meanwhile, Pishtaz News claims its goal is “to expand on important news overlooked by regional outlets.”
However, these narratives persistently echo U.S. foreign policy objectives. Al-Fassel’s YouTube has garnered millions of views for videos endorsing the Trump administration’s stance on Gaza and denouncing Hamas for obeying “Iranian orders.” On Pishtaz News, a recent poll probed public perceptions of the Supreme Leader’s health, offering options that ranged from “healthy but hiding” to “disfigured” or “dead.”
There’s a reason this portrayal aligns with American interests; both Al-Fassel and Pishtaz News are part of a network funded by the U.S. government, masquerading as legitimate news outlets, as revealed by The Intercept.
This funding acknowledgment is often buried on their sites in an easily overlooked “About” section, while their social media fails to disclose their government ties, contravening platform policies designed to prevent the circulation of state-backed propaganda.
Sometimes a dose of reality is the best antidote to disinformation.
Supply Shocks Spreading
Reports from Oil Price indicate:
The Middle East conflict has led to a loss of around 500 million barrels of oil (~$50 billion) due to disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz’s closure.
Global supply is tightening significantly, production has dropped by more than 10 million barrels per day, and stockpiles are depleting rapidly.
Even with a potential reopening of Hormuz, recovery could span months or even years, maintaining upward pressure on oil prices.
The NY Times reports from Asia:
Several countries in the Asia-Pacific are facing sudden disruptions reminiscent of the COVID pandemic’s impact. Even with a peace agreement emerging, this industrious region could experience months of canceled flights, soaring food prices, factory halts, delayed shipments, and shortages of previously readily available products, including plastic bags and microchips.
Officials warn that persistent strangulation of Middle Eastern trade could trigger widespread unrest and recession in multiple nations if the war continues much longer.
As if that wasn’t troubling enough, prices of condoms are set to soar by 30%:
Karex CEO Goh Miah Kiat announced that the cost of essential raw materials like aluminum and silicone oil rose 25% to 30% since the conflict began almost two months ago.
The Malaysia-based company produces over five billion condoms annually, facing heightened demand while shipping delays leave many without product.
Higher inventory levels are stuck on ships, taking up to two months to reach the U.S. and Europe, while developing nations already grappling with shortages see further delays.
Karex supplies major brands like Durex and Trojan, alongside public health systems and UN aid programs.
Regional Roundup
Now, let’s gather some other key news items before we delve into more in-depth analyses:
So There’s Like Totally a Master Plan
I’ll begin with tweets highlighting a troubling pattern of oil refinery fires stirring social media discussions (is this unusually high for such incidents over two months?):
ELEVEN oil or gas facility fires or explosions occurred in countries not actively engaged, within the six weeks since the initiation of the unlawful U.S. war against Iran.
Must be mere coincidences—a lot of coincidences. https://t.co/CxkchUhMRh
— Peter Cronau (@PeterCronau) April 21, 2026
The video by Richard Medhurst has garnered nearly 200K views in 11 days. He presents a compelling argument:
Richard Medhurst: In the shadows, the United States has been quietly orchestrating a heist of the world’s oil and gas resources. Over the past three months, they’ve attacked Russian tankers, targeted refineries, hampered China’s oil supply, seized major oil fields, and even targeted heads of state. We are witnessing the U.S. transform from an empire into a pirate state, birthing a “pro gas dollar” or “LNG dollar.”
I trust Medhurst’s reporting; however, like Brian Berletic, he may at times perceive intent where there’s merely mismanagement.
Conversely, Greg Stoker and Elina Xenophontos suggest in the video below that the U.S. lacks a coherent strategy.
Greg Stoker: The U.S. is playing checkers while the world plays chess. There’s no grand strategy to maintain the petrodollar or implement a comprehensive global energy blockade. Their actions may seem deliberate, but they’re simply reacting to ongoing developments, evidenced by the decision to deploy another 10,000 service members as a third carrier group accompanies the USS George HW Bush sailing around Africa…
Elina Xenophontos: It’s crucial to distinguish between what the U.S. aims to achieve and the actual unfolding of events; the reality reflects a lack of overarching strategy.
Additionally, the idea that the “petrodollar” system is somewhat mythical deserves mention.
Yves has previously articulated that the dollar’s dominance is poised for eventual decline as the global financial landscape shifts. However, such transformations take time, unlike the dramatic shifts seen in past centuries.
On a final note, Alon Mizrahi recently recovered his Substack account after it was hacked earlier this week.
I’ll conclude with a video in which Luke Groman explains the market manipulations involving Scott Bessant and warns of the consequences these tactics could have on trust in U.S. commodities markets as price discovery mechanisms.
