In times of economic uncertainty, the mantra “If it’s broken, fix it” resonates strongly. Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, is anticipated to share a new strategy focused on inflation targeting later today.
Hurricane Laura lashes the Texas and Louisiana coasts: USAT
US and Russian military vehicles collide in Syria, injuring US troops: BBC
Turkey plans military exercises in a disputed region of the eastern Mediterranean: Reuters
Turkey faces another currency crisis: NYT
The Federal Reserve is expected to adjust its policy to combat low inflation: CNBC
Fed’s inflation hawk shows openness to allowing inflation to exceed the 2% target: BBG
Orders for durable goods in the US continued to increase strongly in July: MW
The differences in year-to-date returns across various US equity risk factors are striking. At the extremes, there is an eye-opening 40 percentage point gap between the best and worst performers, as indicated by a selection of exchange-traded funds up to yesterday’s close (August 25).
Protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin escalate for a third consecutive night: CNN
Hurricane Laura intensifies as it approaches Louisiana and Texas: CBS
China accuses a US spy plane of disrupting military exercises: CNN
A former IMF officials suggests the US and China economic decoupling is unlikely: CNBC
Two opposition lawmakers in Hong Kong arrested following anti-government protests: BBC
Will planned airline workforce cuts necessitate an extension of US stimulus? NYT
The Fed is likely to maintain its target interest rate near zero for an extended period: BBG
Global trade saw a notable rebound in June with a “strong catch-up growth of 7.6%” over May: CPB
Home prices in the US increased by 4.3% in June compared to a year earlier: CNBC
New home sales in the US soared in July, marking the highest level since 2006: MW
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index shows continued growth in August: RF
The US Consumer Confidence Index fell to a six-year low in August: MW
Monitoring trends is a core responsibility at The ETF Portfolio Strategist, especially for the ETFs in our benchmark and proprietary strategy portfolios. Below is a snapshot of several of these ETFs, reflecting prices through today’s close (August 25):
According to the 3-month moving average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI-MA3), the economy showed a significant rebound in July. However, given the unusual fluctuations in business-cycle analysis since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, caution is warranted before declaring an all-clear signal.
Continue reading
The Republican National Convention opens with stern warnings about the Democratic Party: BBG
Dr. Fauci, the leading US virus expert, cautions against hastily releasing a vaccine: BBC
A tropical storm is gaining strength and heading towards Louisiana: CNN
China’s economic recovery gains speed, narrowing the gap with the US economy: WSJ
Economists suggest the worst economic impacts of the coronavirus may be behind us: CNBC
Global dividends have hit their lowest point in over a decade: MW
Exxon Mobil has been removed from the Dow Jones Industrials in a major reshuffling: BBG
Business sentiment in Germany shows greater improvement than anticipated in August: Reuters
Revised GDP data from Germany indicates a slightly less severe decline in Q2 at 9.7%: Reuters
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (3-month average) indicates a potential end to the recession in July: ChiFed
Most of the major asset classes experienced upward movement during the trading week ending August 21, as indicated by a range of exchange-traded funds. Leading this surge were real estate stocks outside the US.
The US FDA announces the approval of a plasma treatment for Covid-19: CNN
Two storms are targeting the Gulf of Mexico: CNN
Many companies are reconsidering their plans to reopen offices after Labor Day: WSJ
Sovereign wealth funds are reevaluating real estate investment opportunities: Reuters
Over half of US oil production is currently offline due to impending storms: Reuters
A majority of economists surveyed predict the US recession will conclude by late 2020 or early 2021: BBG
Existing home sales showed significant growth in July: Reuters
The US Composite PMI, serving as a GDP proxy, reached an 18-month peak in August: IHS Markit
Beta portfolios had a successful week as of the market close on August 21, based on our four passive benchmark strategies. In contrast, the two proprietary strategies showed mixed performance, with one portfolio issuing another sell signal, joining the two triggered the previous week.
This collection of updates provides an insightful snapshot of various economic factors, from the Federal Reserve’s expected policy changes to significant global events. These developments underpin the critical landscape businesses and policymakers navigate in today’s challenging environment.
