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<p>Foreign developed-market stocks outperformed all major asset classes last week, marking a significant rebound following two weeks of decline. This resurgence led a broad rally in risk assets during the trading week ending August 7, as indicated by a series of exchange-traded funds. <br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/stocks-in-foreign-developed-markets-led-gainers-last-week/#more-14533" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/stocks-in-foreign-developed-markets-led-gainers-last-week/" title="7:21 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2020-08-10T07:21:27-04:00">August 10, 2020</time></a>
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<p>Trump has signed an executive order to extend certain pandemic relief measures: <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/08/trump-signs-executive-order-on-coronavirus-relief.html">CNBC</a><br/>Negotiations in Congress over the US virus relief package remain stalled: <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-10/standoff-on-virus-relief-package-leaves-damage-all-around?srnd=premium">BBG</a><br/>The US Secretary of Health has praised Taiwan’s democratic processes, escalating tensions with China: <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/09/world/asia/taiwan-us-azar-china.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage">NYT</a><br/>China has briefly dispatched fighter jets into Taiwan’s airspace: <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-taiwan-usa-president/china-sends-fighter-jets-as-u-s-health-chief-visits-taiwan-idUSKCN25605V">Reuters</a><br/>Millennials are facing severe financial challenges due to the pandemic’s economic impact: <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/millennials-covid-financial-crisis-fall-behind-jobless-11596811470?mod=hp_lead_pos10">WSJ</a><br/>The World Bank forecasts a rise in global extreme poverty by 100 million people: <a href="https://apnews.com/727c2dea29daed6e226b964f8caadfcf">AP</a><br/>In July, US payrolls increased by 1.763 million, surpassing Wall Street forecasts: <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/07/jobs-report-july-2020.html">CNBC</a><br/>Consumer borrowing saw its first increase in June, marking a monthly gain during the pandemic: <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-borrowing-increases-in-june-after-declining-at-start-of-pandemic-2020-08-07">MW</a><br/>30% to 40% of US renters are at risk of eviction: <a href="https://nlihc.org/sites/default/files/The_Eviction_Crisis_080720.pdf">NLIHC.org</a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/renters.10aug2020.png"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-14532" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/renters.10aug2020.png" alt="" width="754" height="422" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-10-august-2020/" title="6:11 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2020-08-10T06:11:03-04:00">August 10, 2020</time></a>
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<p>Here’s a brief overview of three proprietary strategies that will frequently appear in <em>The ETF Portfolio Strategist:</em></p>
<p><a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://t.co/XZzGPyX3cC?amp=1" target="_blank">https://etfps.substack.com/p/three-proprietary-strategies</a></p>
<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" width="650" height="450" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/chart.a1.png" alt="" class="wp-image-14530" /></figure>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/three-risk-managed-portfolio-strategies/" title="3:32 pm" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2020-08-09T15:32:44-04:00">August 9, 2020</time></a>
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<p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1108421253/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=1108421253&linkCode=as2&tag=thecapitalspe-20&linkId=09cb37c78b9e9f2eed2527860906aee0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><img decoding="async" class="alignleft" src="https://ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&MarketPlace=US&ASIN=1108421253&ServiceVersion=20070822&ID=AsinImage&WS=1&Format=_SL250_&tag=thecapitalspe-20" border="0"/></a><img decoding="async" style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" src="https://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=thecapitalspe-20&l=am2&o=1&a=1108421253" alt="" width="1" height="1" border="0"/>● <a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1108421253/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=1108421253&linkCode=as2&tag=thecapitalspe-20&linkId=185c97f5d129d8b4bec3e0fa5f35ff10" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Boom and Bust: A Global History of Financial Bubbles</a><img decoding="async" style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" src="https://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=thecapitalspe-20&l=am2&o=1&a=1108421253" alt="" width="1" height="1" border="0"/><br/>Authors: William Quinn and John D. Turner<br/><strong><a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/boom-and-bust/D09C2E3BEA798F6EDC9D3880FC0300ED#fndtn-information">Summary</a> via publisher (Cambridge U. Press)</strong><br/>This compelling book explores the phenomenon of financial bubbles, providing historical examples from iconic markets such as Paris, London, and New York. Quinn and Turner seek to answer why these bubbles occur and how they can lead to some having disastrous consequences while others may yield societal benefits. The authors assert that bubbles often emerge when investors react to new technologies or political movements, underscoring the importance of understanding these triggers for future predictions.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-8-august-2020/#more-14510" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-8-august-2020/" title="8:23 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2020-08-08T08:23:45-04:00">August 8, 2020</time></a>
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<p>Last November, The ETF Portfolio Strategist (ETF-PS) <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/introducing-the-etf-portfolio-strategist/">debuted</a> in a beta format. Initially, it was scheduled for a formal rollout in the first quarter of 2020. However, the pandemic shifted our priorities, bringing us to this moment in August instead. Nevertheless, the demand for insightful market analytics related to ETF-based portfolio strategies remains strong, and we are dedicated to providing valuable insights.</p>
<p>The format has evolved slightly since its inception. Instead of releasing a comprehensive issue at once, ETF-PS components will now be published individually on a semi-regular basis. Additionally, future editions will be available at: <a href="https://etfps.substack.com/">etfps.substack.com</a>. To stay updated, don’t forget to subscribe!</p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/relaunched-the-etf-portfolio-strategist/" title="4:13 pm" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2020-08-07T16:13:00-04:00">August 7, 2020</time></a>
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<p><span style="color: #ff0000;"><a style="color: #ff0000;" href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3621358">Is Gold a Hedge or Safe Haven Asset during the COVID–19 Crisis?</a></span><br/>Authored by Md Akhtaruzzaman (Australian Catholic University), et al.<br/><strong>May 15, 2020</strong><br/><em>This research explores gold's role as a safe haven asset amidst the ongoing COVID–19 crisis, utilizing an intraday dataset. Findings indicate that during the initial phase of the pandemic (December 31, 2019 – March 16, 2020), gold demonstrated a negative correlation with international equity returns, reaffirming its position as a safe haven. However, this relationship diminished in the second phase (March 17 – April 24, 2020). The study reveals a significant increase in the portfolio weights of gold among investors during the crisis, indicating a ‘flight-to-safety’ trend. In addition, the analysis highlighted rising hedging costs and effective hedging capabilities when gold was included in portfolios with major financial assets, corroborated by robust findings from alternative DCC-GARCH model specifications.</em><br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/research-review-7-august-2020-gold/#more-14524" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/research-review-7-august-2020-gold/" title="7:08 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2020-08-07T07:08:48-04:00">August 7, 2020</time></a>
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<p>No advancements in negotiations between the GOP and Democrats regarding new coronavirus relief: <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/06/senators-coronavirus-relief-talks-stall-392210">Politico</a><br/>Trump has issued a ban on US transactions with Chinese-owned TikTok and WeChat: <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/07/trump-issues-executive-orders-to-ban-us-transactions-with-wechat-tiktok.html">CNBC</a><br/>Economists predict a slowdown in job growth for July’s payroll report: <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-06/u-s-jobs-report-to-mark-slowdown-or-worse-in-labor-recovery?srnd=economics-vp">BBG</a><br/>Trump has reinstated a 10% tariff on certain Canadian aluminum imports: <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53683569">BBC</a><br/>The US small business relief program is slated to end amid persistently high unemployment: <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/06/business/small-businesses-relief-program-ending.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage">NYT</a><br/>China’s exports saw a year-over-year rise of 7.2%, influenced by increased demand for medical supplies: <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/07/china-trade-exports-and-imports-in-july.html">CNBC</a><br/>German industrial output experienced a notable increase in June: <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/german-industrial-production-climbed-9-in-june-2020-08-07">MW</a><br/>US jobless claims rose by 1.186 million last week, marking the softest increase during the pandemic up to this point: <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/weekly-jobless-claims.html">CNBC</a><br/>Job cuts in the US saw a rise in July after two months of moderate increases. Gold continued its upward trend with its 15th consecutive day of gains:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/gold.07aug2020.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-14523" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/gold.07aug2020.png" alt="" width="700" height="312" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-7-august-2020/" title="5:55 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2020-08-07T05:55:20-04:00">August 7, 2020</time></a>
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<p>The current situation in the US government bond market is quite unprecedented. Inflation-indexed Treasuries suggest that inflation expectations are rising as real yields (adjusted for inflation) decrease. In typical scenarios, analysts might argue that one of these trends is incorrect. However, given the context of the coronavirus crisis, it is essential to question whether these market signals can coexist and reflect a reasonable reality.<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/pondering-lower-real-yields-and-higher-inflation-forecasts/#more-14519" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/pondering-lower-real-yields-and-higher-inflation-forecasts/" title="7:38 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2020-08-06T07:38:09-04:00">August 6, 2020</time></a>
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<p>No signs of progress regarding a bipartisan agreement on coronavirus relief: <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/510766-skepticism-grows-over-friday-deadline-for-coronavirus-deal">TH</a><br/>The Bank of England has maintained steady interest rates, cautioning against a slow recovery: <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/bank-of-england-holds-rates-steady-and-maintains-bond-buying-levels.html">CNBC</a><br/>German manufacturing orders saw a substantial rise in June: <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/german-manufacturing-orders-surge-28-in-june-2020-08-06?mod=home-page">MW</a><br/>Global food prices have continued to increase through July: <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-economy-food/world-food-price-index-rises-in-july-extending-rebound-idUSKCN2520ZL?il=0">Reuters</a><br/>The world economy experienced growth in July for the first time since January: <a href="https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b9a1f47a1c714124a1b412da6b637e75">IHS Markit</a><br/>US ISM Services PMI indicates growth in the service sector in July: <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/service-side-of-the-us-economy-shows-surprising-growth-in-july-ism-finds-but-employment-worsens-2020-08-05">MW</a><br/>US Services PMI shows stabilization in business activity, though demand appears to be weakening: <a href="https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/f6742aa6258f4d55b092529705208418">IHS Markit</a><br/>US private payrolls saw a rise of just 167,000 in July, far below prior expectations: <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/05/adp-private-payroll-growth-at-167000-in-july-well-below-expectations.html">CNBC</a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/adp.06aug2020.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-14518" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/adp.06aug2020.png" alt="" width="730" height="340" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-6-august-2020/" title="5:50 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2020-08-06T05:50:26-04:00">August 6, 2020</time></a>
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<p>Employment levels are predicted to show another rise in this week’s July payroll update. However, it remains premature to interpret month-to-month positive hiring trends as an indication of overall labor-market stability and economic recovery. A more accurate assessment can be derived from two weekly reports: initial and continuing jobless claims. Currently, both metrics reveal ongoing vulnerabilities in the job market.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-economy-remains-vulnerable-amid-wave-of-ongoing-layoffs/#more-14514" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-economy-remains-vulnerable-amid-wave-of-ongoing-layoffs/" title="7:30 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2020-08-05T07:30:12-04:00">August 5, 2020</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta -->Conclusion: In this multifaceted economic landscape, the recovery from the pandemic remains a central focus. With fluctuations in both market performance and employment statistics, ongoing analysis is crucial for understanding the broader implications on financial stability and growth.
