Introduction
The current geopolitical landscape presents significant challenges for Israel, especially with its growing realization of shifting dynamics regarding its relationship with the United States. As various analyses suggest, Israel finds itself at a crossroads, contemplating how to navigate an uncertain future.
The Israeli establishment seems to have recognized that the U.S. is declining as a global power, creating an imperative to adapt its national strategy. The proposition to redefine itself as the Zionist State of Israel (ZISIS) stems from a belief that this period may be the only opportunity for the nation to pursue its expansionist ambitions. However, warnings from various sources indicate a potential for civil conflict and even state collapse within Israel.
Understanding the Shift
On September 18, 2025, following Israel’s airstrikes on Qatar, I articulated a perspective that highlighted Israel’s acute awareness of America’s waning influence. This awareness catalyzed Israel’s urgency to achieve its territorial goals. In contrast, the Gulf nations appeared not to recognize or unwilling to accept this reality.
On October 13, 2026, Trita Parsi drew our attention to an article by Maj. Gen. (res.) Tamir Hayman, the former head of the IDF Intelligence Directorate and current Executive Director of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). Hayman’s insights echoed my initial thesis regarding the Israeli establishment’s acknowledgment of U.S. decline.
The New Security Blueprint
In his document titled “The ‘New’ National Security Concept: Conceptualization and Questions for Discussion,” Hayman presents guidelines for Israel’s strategic direction post-October 7. One significant point among his ten proposals emphasizes the need for “Self-Reliance and Severing Dependence on the United States.” He elaborates:
“The United States is a ‘declining power’ and, given its ongoing social and political shifts, will soon abandon Israel in any event. Excessive dependence on the United States exposes Israel to influences that are incompatible with its Jewish character. Thus, severing ties with the U.S. is not merely inevitable but essential for Israel’s independence and the resilience of its Jewish identity.”
The Implications of Decoupling
While Hayman refrains from positioning these thoughts as official policy, he captures the prevailing attitudes within Israel’s security sectors. He raises important questions about the practical consequences of such a decoupling with the U.S., acknowledging that it would have serious repercussions for Israel’s security, trade, and global relations.
Critics contend that this detachment is impractical and argue that without U.S. support, Israel’s viability as a state would be at risk—a point that is meritorious considering the multifaceted aid Israel receives from America. However, Hayman posits that a gradual withdrawal of U.S. support is looming, stressing the necessity for Israel to prepare accordingly.
Building a New Foundation
Israel’s reliance on U.S. support seems undeniable, yet the nation appears to be discreetly forging an alternative path. Efforts to bolster military and technological collaborations directly with U.S. defense entities are taking place, circumventing public scrutiny. An earlier analysis in Naked Capitalism highlighted how alliances among Washington, Tel Aviv, and Silicon Valley could lay the groundwork for a new security framework that functions independently from popular U.S. approval.
This projection aligns with a broader thesis regarding the rise of a new elite in power, particularly those emerging from Silicon Valley. Their vision aligns more closely with the aspirations of Israel than traditional American ideals. Hayman is cognizant that this “new” security stance redefines the Israeli state in ways that many Americans and globally minded individuals may not endorse.
A New Identity?
This discourse centers on the notion of a state predicated on a defined ethnic and religious identity. Hayman articulates the belief that Israel’s Jewish character must take precedence over other national identities. He probes the international community’s diplomatic reactions to this stance, a reality already felt by Arab Israelis who comprise 20 percent of the population and frequently face discrimination.
The Broader Context
This vision conceives of Israel as a nation perpetually at war, utilizing peace as a mere strategy rather than an aspiration. It does not regard any neighboring states as legitimate, allowing for their undermining and aggressive actions. Consequently, Israel is urged to prioritize offense over defense, endorsing settlements in contested regions as a tactical component of security.
Such a framework describes a totalitarian regime founded on ethno-religious identity, existing within a constant state of conflict, dismissing the concept of borders or sovereignty. This characterization leads to the notion of ZISIS: the Zionist State of Israel.
Facing Internal Strife
Nevertheless, a cautionary note arises from a CIA report indicating that Israel may confront either civil war or state collapse. Titled “Fracture From Within,” the report highlights the implications of ongoing strife in Gaza and conflicts in Lebanon and Iran, which exacerbate internal political, social, and economic fractures.
Understanding the Risks
The authors of this CIA analysis are seasoned experts who delve into matters that are often deemed too contentious to publicly address. They conclude that Israel is on the brink of internal strife due to a myriad of issues: economic downturn, rising military expenditures, returning combat veterans with psychological trauma, resentment toward ultra-Orthodox exemptions from service, escalating violence from settlers, and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s constitutional crises.
Intersecting Paths
These separate analyses highlight a shifting landscape within Israeli society. This shift may represent a maturation of the Zionist state concept, potentially evolving into the ZISIS model while simultaneously facing the risk of fracture. The moral implications of the ongoing conflict in Gaza further compound this precarious situation.
The Moral Imperative
Consider a recent viral video in which Israeli politician Moshe Feiglin asserts that killing all babies in Gaza is the morally correct action. Such sentiments are echoed by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who insists that Gaza should be entirely “wiped out.”
This mindset is proliferating among everyday citizens, including university students advocating for the elimination of Gaza’s children as potential threats. These attitudes reveal a troubling moral injury within Israeli society that can no longer be ignored.
Social Divides and Future Prospects
Recent remarks by opposition leader Naftali Bennett illustrate the growing social rift, pointing towards a future fraught with potential alienation and discord. While significant change may not occur immediately, observations indicate that the emerging shape of the Israeli state could soon become untenable from within, even before facing external pressures.
Conclusion
In summary, Israel stands at a critical juncture, navigating the complexities of a shifting geopolitical landscape. As it contemplates its future direction and identity, the internal strains it faces may soon demand urgent reflection and action. The evolution of its national narrative must account not only for geopolitical alliances but also for the moral implications of its policies.
