The missile defense landscape facing the U.S. has evolved significantly since Lt. Gen. (ret.) Henry “Trey” Obering III led the Missile Defense Agency (MDA). While ballistic missiles continue to pose a central threat, contemporary defenses must now also address hypersonic weapons, maneuvering warheads, and potential fractional orbital bombardment systems.
In an interview with Breaking Defense, Obering, a senior executive adviser at Booz Allen and board member at Astroscale U.S., discussed these challenges and the role of on-orbit logistics in missile defense architecture.
Key Changes in Missile Defense:
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Evolving Threats: Historically, the focus was on ballistic missile threats from North Korea and Iran. Now, there’s a shift toward more aggressive strategies from Russia and China, including the “escalate to deescalate” doctrine, which aims to utilize smaller attacks to deter U.S. intervention.
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Threat Diversity: The arsenal of potential attackers has expanded beyond ballistic missiles to include hypersonic missiles, maneuverable warheads, and sophisticated drone attacks.
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Technological Advances: Innovations in sensors, processing power, and reduced launch costs have reinstated the feasibility of a space-based missile defense architecture.
Architectural Risks:
Obering emphasizes that the command and control aspects of missile defense are critical as the architecture integrates multiple sensors and interceptors, including those in space.
Importance of On-Orbit Logistics:
With the growth of space-based systems, on-orbit logistics have become crucial for extending satellite lifespan, improving sustainability, and optimizing costs through refueling and servicing capabilities.
Design Considerations for Servicing:
From the start, spacecraft need standardized interfaces for refueling and servicing, akin to military aircraft that are designed with compatibility in mind for aerial refueling.
Government vs. Industry Roles:
Obering advocates for the government to establish demand signals while allowing industry to innovate solutions.
Evaluating Service vs. Replacement:
Decisions on whether to service or replace satellites depend on economic viability and mission requirements. Different strategies apply for various orbital environments, especially in proliferated Low Earth Orbit (LEO).
Space-Based Solutions Against Threats:
The integration of space-based interceptors enhances the missile defense network’s capability to engage threats more effectively, increasing overall magazine depth.
Astroscale U.S.’s Upcoming Initiatives:
Astroscale aims to demonstrate its Provisioner® refueling spacecraft by 2026, marking a significant step towards operational on-orbit logistics.
Conclusion:
Logistics have always been essential for military operations, and as space becomes a critical domain, the Golden Dome initiative seeks to establish resilient, integrated systems that can sustain operations through conflict. Viewing space logistics as a warfighting enabler is vital for future military capabilities.
