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Polling suggests that Texas Republicans, who have maintained a stronghold on statewide elections since 1994, may be nearing the end of their dominance. This decline can be attributed to a combination of unethical leadership and unpopular policies that have alienated potential voters.
Former President Trump’s policies have also compounded this issue. His controversial handling of the Iran War has led to rising gas prices and exacerbated inflation, further alienating voters, particularly among rural communities and Latino demographics.
The party’s struggles are evident as they associate themselves with widely disfavored topics, including an ongoing series of corruption and sexual misconduct scandals surrounding figures like US Senate nominee Ken Paxton, policy decisions for data center expansion, school vouchers promoted by Governor Greg Abbott, a ban on semi-legal THC products led by Lt. Governor Dan Patrick, egregious instances of open racism (a rarity since the 1950s, represented by Railroad Commission candidate Bo French), and troubling ties to Jeffrey Epstein as showcased by state Comptroller nominee Don Huffines.
Before diving deeper, let’s clarify a critical concept.
In 2026, No Politics Is Local
The once-true adage by the late US Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill that “all politics is local” has long lost its relevance.
This notion is crucial when discussing state politics in the contemporary United States.
National media has consumed regional and local news outlets almost entirely.
When I began my political career 35 years ago, Texas boasted vibrant, bustling daily newspapers in every major city, with local papers covering small-town activities to varying extents. Each community had at least three major television affiliates, and countless local radio stations contributed to a rich local media landscape.
This all began to change with the confluence of Bill Clinton’s 1996 Telecommunications Act, which facilitated media consolidation, and the rise of the internet, undermining both newspapers and TV news.
The cumulative result has been a marketplace dominated by a singular national news narrative throughout this century. The average Texan is just as likely to be unaware of Ken Paxton’s ongoing scandals as a Californian or a Floridian who follows current events closely.
This indicates that the national political context outweighs local factors. Hence, examining Trump’s national and Texas-specific approval ratings is essential because the 2026 elections will effectively serve as a judgment on his administration and the Republican Party as a whole.
Trump Has Shattered His Reputation
Recent data from Real Clear Politics reveals troubling trends for Trump:
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) September 23, 2026
With the exception of the Texas US Senate race at the bottom, all depicted numbers reflect nationwide trends. However, according to Marist polling conducted in Texas from September 17-20, Trump’s approval rate sits at 43%, whereas disapproval has crept up to 55%. A significant portion of potential congressional voters (39%) express intentions to vote against Trump, with only 25% voting in his favor. Notably, nearly 40% of respondents report a decline in their household finances over the past year.
The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project confirms Trump’s approval at the same 43%, citing a lower disapproval rate of 50% but also observing a decline from a range of 52-38% in February.
The economic turmoil is noteworthy, especially considering recent historically high fuel prices damaging the GOP’s electoral chances.
Nationally, Trump faces waning support among rural voters, securing only 48% as noted in an AP-KFF poll—a troubling trend considering he previously won this demographic with a 30-point margin in 2024.
This decline ties back to economic concerns, with 60% of rural Texans opposed to data centers in their communities, a topic I will discuss in connection to Governor Greg Abbott’s policies later on.
Moreover, Trump’s diminishing appeal among Hispanic Texans is alarming. With demographics revealing that Texas comprises approximately 40% non-Hispanic white, 40% Hispanic, 12% Black, and 5% Asian individuals, Trump won 55% of the Hispanic Texan vote in 2024.
Regrettably, the Texas legislature hastily redrew congressional district lines in 2025 to accommodate anticipated gains within the Tejano community, yet this may backfire:
A September poll of 1,000 Latino voters in Texas conducted for Cook Political and TelevisaUnivision shows that 18% of Latinos who previously voted for Trump have since withdrawn their support, and nearly two-thirds of Latino voters would be less inclined to vote for candidates endorsing Trump’s immigration policies.
The changing preferences among Latino voters present a unique opportunity and challenge for both parties, as their support often hinges more on perceived improvements to their economic situations rather than party loyalty.
Trump’s disapproval among Texas Latinos has soared to 66%, primarily driven by economic factors rather than immigration issues.
Now let’s assess the situation with a collection of striking infographics:
Estimated Hispanic shift (NYT/Siena applied to districts)
Texas:
🔵 TX-28: +31
🔵 TX-15: +25
🔵 TX-34: +24
🔵 TX-23: +18
🔵 TX-35: +16
🔵 TX-09: +16Florida:
🔵 FL-26: +25
🔵 FL-28: +25
🔵 FL-27: +21
🔵 FL-22: +13
🔵 FL-12: +12
🔵 FL-07: +11
🔵 FL-14:…— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 22, 2026
In West Texas, as previously noted, Trump’s policies affecting Big Bend National Park have angered voters across political lines and backgrounds.
Having established an understanding of the current landscape, it’s important now to delve into the candidates vying for positions in Texas elections.
Ken Paxton: Lawless Attorney General with Historic Failings
Often indicted but never convicted, Ken Paxton has proven to be an exceptionally poor candidate.
Referencing an interactive segment from the NYT featuring discussions with Trump supporters, here’s a notable visual representation:
Coincidentally, a recent tweet making the rounds captures a significant moment:
Update: the official leatherbound record of the impeachment of Attorney General Paxton is seven volumes and was delivered to both Texas House and Senate offices today https://t.co/OMeMTnUCDw pic.twitter.com/gm71shQ5gK
— Scott Braddock (@scottbraddock) September 23, 2026
Without diving into excessive detail regarding his political race, here’s a concise summary of Ken Paxton’s extensive legal issues, excluding less significant opponents:
- 2014: Paxton Violated Securities Law, Receives Reprimand; fined $1,000 for soliciting investment without registration.
- 2015: Securities Fraud Indictment; indicted on two counts of first-degree felony securities-fraud, one third-degree count. The SEC initiated a civil suit in 2016 (complaint).
- 2024: Case Dismissal; felony charges dropped after a pretrial diversion requiring restitution, community service, and ethics classes.
- 2020–25: Whistleblower Award; $6.6 million awarded to former aides who reported him to the FBI for alleged bribery.
- 2023: Impeachment; impeached and suspended over bribery allegations with a House vote of 121–23.
- 2023: Acquittal; found not guilty on all charges in a politically influenced Senate trial.
- 2025: Federal Charges Dismissed; federal corruption probe dropped during the last weeks of the Biden administration.
- 2025: Divorce Proceedings; Angela Paxton files for divorce on “biblical grounds,” citing infidelity.
- 2025: Real Estate Disclosures; came under scrutiny for failure to report multiple properties.
- 2026: Ethics Violations; reported financial disclosures appear to breach ethics laws.
- 2026: Controversial Plea Deal; his office offered leniency in a child sex abuse case, raising ethical eyebrows.
While there may be ample funding for television advertisements, their real effect on voter sentiment often diminishes after Labor Day. Recent news indicates significant spending, but I doubt these efforts can compensate for broader national sentiments in the final weeks leading up to November.
In prior writings, I’ve explored the role of wealthy fundamentalists who have sponsored Paxton’s career. One piece I recommend revisiting is:
The Billionaire Pastors Who Want to Turn Texas Into a Christian Nation, a compelling exposé of Ty Dunn and Farris Wilks’ influence.
Now let’s pivot to discussing the Governor, one of Texas’s longest-tenured leaders who has amassed significant power since taking office.
Greg Abbott and His Commitment to Data Centers
Ironically, his ardent support for this industry may jeopardize his reelection prospects in an otherwise favorable race.
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) September 23, 2026
Although the poll numbers may seem less favorable for challenger Hinojosa, they are notably 10 points better than Beto O’Rourke’s numbers against Ted Cruz in 2018, a watershed moment for Texas Democrats.
Abbott’s enthusiastic backing of data centers has been a distinctive feature of his tenure.
Only four months ago did Abbott showcase a major initiative with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, where Fink highlighted the pressing need for investment to maintain the U.S.’s technological edge:
“To maintain our status as a technology leader—and especially in AI—we need to invest trillions. If we don’t take this seriously, China will outpace us. Growth in infrastructure is imperative.”
Listening to this proposal ignited both frustration and disbelief, prompting me to seek comfort in music through YouTube.
Abbott’s fondness for data centers is reflected in these pivotal milestones:
| Date | Data Center Initiatives |
|---|---|
| June 2025 Legislation |
Signing of SB 6: large power users will cover their own grid connections, which can be severed during emergencies. (Data Center Frontier) |
| Sept 2025 Promotion |
Describing Abilene’s $500 billion data center as “the largest in the country,” Abbott hints at even larger projects in the works. (Dallas Morning News) |
| Nov 2025 Support |
Advocating for Texas as “the epicenter of AI development.” (Texas Tribune) |
| 2026–27 Tax Incentives |
Projected costs of state data center sales tax exemptions could total $3.2 billion over two years, though actual figures may far exceed this. Only 20 out of 138 eligible centers have faced audits. (Texas Tribune) |
| Since 2025 Funding |
Over $2 million from tech-related donations, including a $1 million contribution. (Texarkana Today) |
| 6 May 2026 Engagement |
Speaking with BlackRock’s Larry Fink in Waco, emphasizing investment needs for data center infrastructure. (BlackRock video, Snopes) |
| 10 Jun 2026 Regulation |
Advocating for regulation: data centers to fund their own infrastructure and revisit sales tax exemptions. (Texas Tribune) |
| 3 Aug 2026 Audit Freeze |
Halts new data center grid connections pending legal audits of water, energy, tax breaks, and ownership structures. The ERCOT queue contains over 1,800 total projects. (Texas Tribune) |
| 7 Aug 2026 Trump’s Intervention |
Trump criticizes Texas’ data center restrictions as a “misstep.” (Texas Tribune) |
| 14 Aug 2026 Environmental Audit |
ERCOT will audit up to 300 projects, with 90% being data centers. (Texas Tribune) |
| 21 Sep 2026 Permit Freeze |
Extends the pause on environmental permits, stating, “Texans must come first. Data centers must pay their own costs.” (Texas Tribune) |
My discontent with the Texas data center expansion is shared by many:
This map was crafted by my child using Maptitude, based on data I organized.
| Location/Date | Protests Against Data Centers in Texas |
|---|---|
| Giddings Lee County · May 2025 |
Residents contested a gas plant for use by data centers (source). |
| College Station Brazos County · Sept 2025 |
A petition with 5,047 signatures; council unanimously rejected the land transaction (source). |
| Amarillo Potter County · Sept 2025 |
Protested courthouse sale of city water to Fermi America (source). |
| Lacy Lakeview McLennan County · Dec 2025 |
Opposition led to a 3,000-signature petition; council voted 6-1 in favor despite the protests (source). |
| Bells Grayson County · Dec 2025– |
Organizing against a planned Black Mountain site (source). |
| El Paso El Paso County · Jan 2026 |
Coalition protested Meta’s contracts and opposed a gas plant (source). |
| Harlingen Cameron County · early 2026 |
Residents voiced opposition to the Eneus RGV project during a city commission meeting (source). |
| Granbury Hood County · Feb 2026 |
Standing-room-only meetings rejected moratorium proposals twice, resulting in a lawsuit against the county from developers (source). |
| Round Rock Williamson County · Feb 2026 |
Over 3,000 signatures collected; zoning approved regardless of public concern (source). |
| San Marcos Hays County · Feb–Jun 2026 |
Hundreds attended city hall meetings; the first Texas city to ban data centers, narrowly approved 4-3; county water review board involvement. (source) |
| Forest Hill Tarrant County · Mar 2026 |
Residents confronted Black Mountain’s CEO at a town hall meeting (source). |
| Angleton Brazoria County · Mar 2026 |
Individuals protested; commissioners rejected a tax abatement due to public opposition (source). |
| Red Oak Ellis County · May 2026 |
Over 150 residents protested; rezoning approved regardless (source). |
| Glen Rose Somervell County · May 2026 |
The court opposed data centers until legislative actions unfold (source). |
| Lockhart Caldwell County · May 2026 |
Council restricted data centers to industrial zones (source). |
| Hillsboro Hill County · May–Jun 2026 |
The first county moratorium was enacted in Texas, later rescinded after legal challenges (source). |
| Lufkin Angelina County · May–Jun 2026 |
Residents protested, facing restrictions on their ability to speak; packed commissioners’ meeting (source). |
| Alvin Brazoria County · by Jun 2026 |
City resolution explicitly opposed data centers (source). |
| Kerrville Kerr County · by Jun 2026 |
Zoning limitations imposed alongside water-capacity approvals (source). |
| Taylor Williamson County · Jun 2026 |
Ongoing organizing against proposed Taylor Data Centers Coalition (source). |
| Texarkana Bowie County · Jun–Aug 2026 |
Community rally against data centers; “No Bowie County Data Centers” initiative (source). |
| Athens Henderson County · Jul 2026 |
Save Cedar Creek Lake petition led to developer withdrawal (source). |
| Lubbock Lubbock County · Jul 2026 |
Packed Civic Center for meetings; moratorium petition gathered approximately 2,500 signatures (source). |
| Bastrop Bastrop County · Jul 2026 |
Bipartisan town hall meetings attracted over 100 citizens demanding more transparency (source). |
| Austin (Capitol) Travis County · Jul 2026 |
Statewide demonstration applying pressure for a special session (source). |
Now, let’s turn our attention to the nominees running for office this election cycle.
Are Cash Advantages Effective in Elections?
This race is surprisingly close, considering polling indicated that Democrat Vickie Goodwin is up against Lt. Governor Dan Patrick.
Patrick is deploying extensive campaign funds, including controversial tactics like AI deep fakes in advertising, although these ads have since been pulled.
Should Patrick lose, it might not solely be due to a potential Democratic wave; it may also reflect discontent with his single-minded obsession with banning THC, which has been notably unpopular with much of the public.
Regardless of his cash advantage—supported by only 31% of Texans—Patrick’s singular focus on the marijuana ban could backfire:
| Date | Dan Patrick’s THC Ban Efforts |
|---|---|
| 27 Mar 2025 Threat |
Patrick pushes for a special session if THC restrictions and bail reforms fail. (Texas Tribune) |
| Jun 2025 Session |
SB 3, a total ban on hemp-derived THC products, passes, touted as “a major victory for Patrick.” (Texas Tribune) |
| 10 Jun 2025 Backlash |
Patrick’s push for a THC ban receives unexpected criticism from conservative circles. (Texas Tribune) |
| 11 Jun 2025 Poll |
GOP primary voters exhibit opposition to the ban, showing 47% against and 37% in favor. (San Antonio Current) |
| Early Jun 2025 Poll |
UT/Texas Politics Project indicates that 53% oppose SB 3 while only 31% support it; opposition is widespread among Democrats and independents. Republican support is divided. (Texas Tribune, Texas Politics Project) |
| 22 Jun 2025 Veto |
Governor Abbott vetoes SB 3. Patrick claims Abbott’s move suggests he wants to “legalize marijuana.” (Texas Tribune) |
| Jul 2025 Poll |
A poll shows that 79% would rather legalize hemp products with increased regulation. (Cannabis Business Times) |
| 30 Jul 2025 Special Session |
Senate passes the ban again as SB 5. (Texas Tribune) |
| 4 Sep 2025 Failed |
The second special session concludes with no THC ruling. Patrick states the Senate supports a complete THC ban. |
| 31 Jan 2026 2027 Priority |
Lawmakers state that a THC ban will continue to be a priority, but momentum has waned. (Texas Tribune) |
| 27 Mar 2026 2027 Focus |
A lawmaker reveals an inquiry into “THC-induced psychosis.” (Texas Tribune) |
| 31 Jul 2026 Current Legislation |
Regulations stemming from a Texas Supreme Court ruling led to bans on several THC products, while still permitting delta-9 under 0.3%. (Texas Tribune) |
Time will reveal if this impacts public perception of Patrick, who publicly lauded Trump at the recent GOP convention.
Lastly, let’s examine a candidate whose involvement with the infamous Jeffrey Epstein scandal raises serious concerns.
The Man Who Acquired Zorro Ranch
Despite the state GOP’s initial hesitations about Don Huffines, Trump’s endorsement propelled him to victory in a contentious primary. Governor Abbott, being pragmatic, appointed Huffines to a powerful state position after Kelly Hancock stepped down.
Current polls indicate he holds a slight lead over Democratic State Senator Sarah Eckhardt, yet I remain skeptical about his fitness for office given his past actions and rhetoric regarding education policies, which have triggered public outrage.
Huffines’ previous behavior revealed both his zealous support for school vouchers, a divisive topic, and his impulsive nature when engaging with students concerned about these policies:
For insights into Huffines’ character post-primary, consider his extreme right stance on critical issues:
Rep. Huffines has firmly opposed the franchise tax and has long sought to repeal it. Additionally, he has championed regressive policies to overturn local LGBT protections and promote open carry laws, reflecting attitudes once deemed extreme that are now mainstream discourse in Texas politics.
As Comptroller, one of the state’s most powerful positions, Huffines is already making waves. It’s essential to keep a sharp eye on his actions and the implications for Texas’s future.
Looking ahead, the landscape of Texas politics is rapidly evolving, driven by demographic changes and shifting public sentiment. With elections on the horizon, the political dynamics may reshape significantly.
Concluding Thoughts
The stakes are incredibly high as Texas heads into the election. The Republican establishment, while holding an advantageous financial position and historical control, faces a turning point, propelled by shifting societal attitudes and an increasingly engaged electorate. As political players navigate this transformative landscape, the future of Texas hangs in the balance, demanding both vigilance and active participation from its citizens.
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