House View Report, Fourth Edition
Publication Date: 08 September 2026
The global energy system has navigated a significant supply shock surprisingly well. In February, a military campaign launched by the US and Israel against Iran led to a drastic reduction of approximately 15 million barrels per day in crude oil supply. Initial forecasts anticipated Brent crude prices soaring above $150 a barrel; however, six months later, oil has averaged around $90. This stability can be attributed to various factors, including existing inventories, alternative export infrastructures, and the resilience of specific countries that absorbed the shock better than expected.
Insights from Claudio Galimberti, Chief Economist, Rystad Energy:
“The global energy system has absorbed an extraordinary disruption to Middle Eastern supply better than expected. China has been central to that resilience, emerging as a swing oil consumer. However, as inventories continue to decline, this balancing role poses a significant risk to the oil market.”
Overview:
The fourth edition of Rystad Energy’s House View investigates how the market managed to maintain stability over the past six months and analyzes the mechanisms that allowed this to happen—many of which are now nearing their limits. The report also discusses the implications of the current crisis for the energy transition, global economic growth, and the future of oil, gas, and power markets leading up to 2040.
Key Highlights from the Report:
(Specific highlights were not provided in the text; please refer to the full report for detailed insights.)
