The housing market is witnessing a notable resurgence, as indicated by the latest report on housing starts and the issuance of residential building permits. According to the Census Bureau, residential construction saw a 3.6% increase in October compared to the previous month. Although permits issued last month declined by 2.7%, this isn’t a cause for concern at this stage. This metric, which provides insight into future construction activities, is still growing at a healthy rate.
Steady US housing recovery is boosting economy
Associated Press | Nov 19
Although the housing market still has a long way to go, it is currently supporting an economy under pressure from a global slowdown, as well as upcoming spending cuts and tax hikes. Joseph LaVorgna, an economist at Deutsche Bank, predicts that the housing recovery could add as much as one percentage point to U.S. economic growth next year. A stronger housing market translates to more job opportunities, particularly in construction, and increased consumer spending.
Concerns loom regarding the fiscal cliff and its potential to destabilize the economy if the $500 billion in planned tax increases and spending cuts take effect in January. However, the reality is that the pain has already begun, driven by the anticipatory nature of capital markets.
● Post Modern Investment: Facts and Fallacies of Growing Wealth in a Multi-Asset World
By Garry Crowder, Thomas Schneeweis, and Hossein Kazemi
Summary via publisher, Wiley
In the last decade, the investment landscape has shifted dramatically, rendering many traditional beliefs about various investment structures and performances obsolete. Yet, many thought leaders and investment professionals remain unaware, stubbornly applying outdated methodologies to modern portfolio management. This book, penned by a team of investment experts, dismantles common myths about alternative investments and provides valuable guidance for developing asset management and investment strategies that align with today’s evolving realities.
Last month, industrial production saw a decline, with the blame once again attributed to Hurricane Sandy. This marks the third instance this week where weak economic data has been tied to the storm that ravaged the Northeast U.S. Earlier, reports indicated that retail sales were impacted by the hurricane, and recent figures on initial jobless claims also suggest similar ties. Are we looking at a convenient excuse to downplay a faltering economy? Perhaps, but clarity will come only with more data that isn’t influenced by weather events.
Anxiety is rising over the potential economic repercussions of the fiscal cliff, which includes $500 billion in scheduled tax increases and spending cuts that could take effect in January. However, it’s important to recognize that the effects are already manifesting, largely due to the anticipatory actions of capital markets.
Although it may appear to be a macroeconomic disaster, the recent spike in jobless claims is likely a direct result of Hurricane Sandy. This suggests that new applications for unemployment benefits should sharply decline in the coming weeks, returning to the slow growth trend disrupted by the storm.
Recent data indicates that retail sales experienced a moderate decrease last month, with Hurricane Sandy being cited as the primary reason. This explanation may be valid for October’s downturn in consumer consumption, although confirmation will take time, making it uncertain if we can classify this as merely a temporary anomaly.
North America leads shift in global energy balance, IEA says in latest World Energy Outlook
Int’l Energy Agency | Nov 12
The latest World Energy Outlook reveals that the significant increase in oil and natural gas production in the United States is set to transform global energy dynamics. In the New Policies Scenario, which serves as the WEO’s main framework, the U.S. is projected to become a net exporter of natural gas by 2020 and nearly self-sufficient in energy by 2035. Furthermore, North America is expected to emerge as a net oil exporter, drastically altering the direction of international oil trade, with nearly 90% of Middle Eastern oil exports directed toward Asia by 2035.
Professor Gary Gorton’s latest book offers essential insights for understanding why financial crises recur across time and geography within capitalism. In Misunderstanding Financial Crises: Why We Don’t See Them Coming
