Tomorrow’s June report is projected to show a 0.2% increase in US retail sales compared to the previous month, as per The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast derived from a variety of econometric estimates. This forecast indicates a significant slowdown from last month’s growth rate of 1.2%.
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Assessing tail risk is crucial for the management and growth of investment portfolios. But where does one start? Analyzing and predicting rare, extreme market events can often feel overwhelming, filled with complex analytical challenges. Moreover, given its significance, this topic shouldn’t be relegated solely to experts. Thus, we begin the first part in a series of statistical explorations of return distributions, particularly when rare events come into play.
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● Europe has announced a new bailout deal for Greece…
● This provides a fresh foundation for discussions regarding assistance to Greece…
● Furthermore, Fed Chair Janet Yellen stated that a rate hike is expected later this year…
● China has become the world’s largest oil importer for the second consecutive month…
● As oil prices decline amidst ongoing negotiations on the Iran nuclear deal…
● Global sales of desktop computers decreased ahead of the launch of Windows 10.
● In the book A Giant Reborn: Why the US Will Dominate the 21st Century
By Johan Van Overtveldt
Summary via publisher (Agate)
In a turbulent political environment, it may seem precarious to assert that any country can sustain its current standing. However, Van Overtveldt carefully analyzes the evidence, offering a thoughtful, engaging narrative. His detailed approach makes a compelling case for why America, contrary to many expert predictions, is poised to extend its 20th-century success into this new millennium. A Giant Reborn reveals that concerns about America’s decline, to echo a famous literary figure, are greatly overstated.
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Recent discussions have sparked renewed concern about a potential US recession. A common argument is that we are overdue for a downturn, particularly given that the current expansion, which began in mid-2009 (according to NBER data), has extended over six years—an above-average duration for the post-World War II period. Some interpret this as a red flag. However, it remains debatable whether the duration of economic expansions genuinely determines the onset of contractions. Context—both financial and economic—plays a crucial role. Moreover, some economists argue that the slow recovery after the Great Recession may actually result in a longer-than-usual expansion. Nonetheless, current indicators suggest that the risk of recession remains low based on the available data.
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● US jobless claims rose to a five-month high…
● At the same time, Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort Index dipped from a two-month peak…
● Additionally, the average US mortgage rate fell to 4.04% last week…
● Meanwhile, optimism arises from a new deal for Greece…
● Lastly, China’s stock market is showing indications of stabilization…
While the optimistic sentiment surrounding US stocks has waned recently, one consistent performer has been the health care sector. This segment of the US market continues to achieve a remarkable performance advantage, boasting a nearly 22% total return over the past year (252 trading days). However, as market conditions shift, even the Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) is feeling the impact of the current risk-averse climate. Although XLV closed above its 200-day moving average as of yesterday (July 8), it has dipped below its 50-day average.
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● The latest FOMC minutes indicate that Fed officials are maintaining a dovish stance…
● US consumer credit rose 5.7% in May compared to the previous year…
● Also, applications for US mortgages increased by 4.6% during the week ending July 3…
● Germany’s trade surplus reached a record high in May…
● Greece faces a critical deadline today regarding new proposals…
● However, there are questions about whether remaining in the eurozone poses greater risks for Greece.
This week, the IMF recommended that the Federal Reserve hold off on its first interest rate hike until “clear signs of wage and price inflation, and sufficiently strong economic growth” are observed. Whether these conditions are met remains a point of contention among analysts. Nonetheless, the prevailing economic situation, particularly with the ongoing Greek crisis, complicates the landscape.
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● The conclusion for Greece’s situation is set for Sunday…
● Greek leadership is seeking a new agreement with Europe…
● Meanwhile, US job openings have risen to a record high in May…
● Gallup’s US economic confidence index remains at a seven-month low…
● At the same time, the US trade deficit widened in May due to slowing exports amidst global challenges…
● Lastly, China’s stock market continues its decline…
● A downturn that may have repercussions for economic reforms.
