In a disappointing turn of events, US industrial activity experienced a decline of 0.4% in May, falling short of initial projections. This downturn reverses the gains made in April and dampens hopes for an impending summer recovery in production. The manufacturing sector also suffered, registering a 0.4% decrease that marks the first negative year-over-year result for this segment in 2021, as noted in the latest report from the Federal Reserve.
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The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield remained at its lowest level since late 2012, according to daily data from Treasury.gov through June 14. For the second consecutive day, this crucial rate held steady at 1.62%, which is over 60 basis points lower than where it began the year. This trend indicates that the bond market anticipates the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in today’s FOMC meeting—possibly for several months to come.
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Retail sales in the US increased by 0.5% in May, as reported by the Census Bureau, slightly surpassing economists’ expectations. However, this increase represents a significant slowdown from April’s impressive 1.3% rise. Given that the previous month’s surge was unusually high, the weaker performance this time around is not necessarily a cause for alarm. Analyzing the last two months’ growth suggests an overall positive trend in retail sales, though a less favorable picture emerges when examining the year-over-year data, which tends to provide a more reliable assessment of consumer spending.
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Forecasting GDP is rarely straightforward, and some even deem it worthless. However, as we delve into the numbers, it becomes clear that there are various methods to interpret them. Unsurprisingly, outcomes can differ significantly based on the approach taken. One particularly promising method models GDP changes on a year-over-year basis, potentially reducing the noise inherent in other forecasting methods. This approach is not without its flaws, yet its underlying methodology possesses a certain allure. Perhaps, its shortcomings are less glaring when compared to the more conventional GDP prediction techniques.
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The rebound in commodity prices continued last week, delivering the highest returns for the five trading days ending June 10 among the major asset classes. For the fifth consecutive week, the iPath Bloomberg Commodity ETN (DJP) posted gains, climbing by 2.3%.
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● The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future
By Kevin Kelly
Review via TechDirt
Kevin Kelly, known for helping to launch Wired Magazine, consistently offers thought-provoking insights. His new book, The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future, does not make specific predictions, but rather explores broader trends he believes are “inevitable.” This perspective prompts readers to consider implications for technology, life, work, and much more.
For anyone intrigued by the interplay of technology, economics, business, and policy, this book is certainly worth a spot on your reading list.
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