Tomorrow, the preliminary GDP report for the fourth quarter is expected to reflect a growth rate close to the 3% pace observed in the previous two quarters, as indicated by various estimates. If these predictions hold true, the US economy will register another significant rise in quarterly output, underscoring recent evidence that economic momentum increased throughout 2017.
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Trump expresses willingness to testify under oath regarding Russia probe: Reuters
Trump calls on Turkey to reduce its military offensive against Kurds in Syria: The Hill
Could the rising euro delay a rate hike by the European Central Bank? Reuters
Oil prices soar to a three-year high: MarketWatch
US PMI indicates a strong manufacturing start for 2018, even as services sector growth moderates: IHS Markit
Eurozone PMI reveals the strongest growth in 12 years: IHS Markit
Japan’s manufacturing PMI reaches a three-year high in December: IHS Markit
US dollar hits a three-year low against foreign currencies: CNBC
FHFA Home Price Index shows a 0.4% rise in November, marking a 6.5% increase year-over-year: MND
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin claims that a weaker dollar will boost US economic growth. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, he noted, “a weaker dollar is advantageous for us concerning trade and opportunities.” This raises the question: does monitoring the dollar’s performance in foreign exchange markets provide insight into predicting US GDP in the short term? Unfortunately, the data indicates that the correlation between a broad measure of the US dollar and GDP growth is largely inconclusive.
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Senate confirms Powell as the new chair of the Federal Reserve: Bloomberg
CIA Director warns that North Korea may resort to nuclear weapons for “coercive” purposes: CNN
Montana adopts net neutrality regulations following the FCC’s repeal: The Hill
Economists predict global growth will reach an eight-year high in 2018: Reuters
US Treasury Secretary states that a weaker dollar is beneficial for the US economy: Bloomberg
Is the positive sentiment at the Davos meeting a contrarian indicator? Guggenheim
One-sixth of millennials have saved $100,000 or more: USA Today
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index shows growth slowing to a three-month low in January: Richmond Fed
Employment increased in half of US states in 2017; remained unchanged in the other half: Labor Dept
US economic output showed robust performance in December, based on an analysis of key indicators. Mirroring recent trends, these figures suggest that the likelihood of a recession beginning at this time is exceedingly low.
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Government shutdown concludes as Trump signs funding legislation into law: USA Today
The divide between Democrats and Republicans widens following shutdown events: Bloomberg
Trump imposes a 30% tariff on imported solar technology: The Hill
China has various options for retaliating against Trump’s import tariffs: Bloomberg
IMF’s report suggests that “global economic activity continues to strengthen”: IMF
A Pennsylvania court ruling on the state’s congressional map gives Democrats an advantage: Politico
VP Pence announces expedited move of US embassy to Jerusalem: LA Times
Chicago Fed National Activity Index indicates stronger US growth in December: Chicago Fed
10-year Treasury yield rises to 2.66%, the highest level since 2014: CNBC
Emerging market equities experienced the most significant gains among the major asset classes last week, according to a variety of exchange-traded products. Meanwhile, US bonds continued their decline, resulting in the most notable downturn for the broad market last week.
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The US government shutdown extends into Monday: The Hill
Eric Trump states during a Fox News interview that the shutdown is a “political advantage” for the administration: CBS
Turkish forces advance into Syria, moving towards US-allied Kurdish fighters: Bloomberg
US Consumer Sentiment Index falls to a six-month low in January: Bloomberg
UK retail spending declined in December following a surge during Black Friday: MNI
Oxfam reports that 82% of the wealth created in 2017 went to the world’s richest 1%: BBC
Historical analysis shows government shutdowns have a limited impact on the stock market: MarketWatch
Hedge Fund Research indicates that hedge funds ended 2017 with record-high assets: P&I
US asset flows in 2017 show a shift towards passive investments as active management retreated: Morningstar
As of mid-afternoon on Sunday, January 21, the US government remains shut down for a second day. Senate moderates are attempting to negotiate a political solution, but their efforts have yet to yield results. In the meantime, what economic consequences can we expect if this political impasse continues?
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Summary via publisher (Princeton University Press)
By Jerry Z. Muller
In contemporary organizations, the belief that success hinges on quantifying human performance and making results public has taken hold. However, in our quest to infuse this evaluation process with scientific rigor, we have shifted from simply measuring performance to becoming obsessed with measurement itself. This has led to a “tyranny of metrics” that jeopardizes the quality of both our lives and key institutions. In this timely and impactful book, Jerry Muller examines the harm stemming from our fixation on metrics and suggests ways to address the issue.
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Overall, the economic landscape in the USA remains robust, as evidenced by the anticipated steady growth in GDP and other indicators. However, pivotal moments like government shutdowns and shifts in monetary policy could introduce complexities. Continued vigilance in monitoring these developments is essential for understanding their potential impact on the economy.
