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The Capital Spectator: Insights on Investing, Asset Allocation, and Economics

AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order
By Kai-Fu Lee
Q&A with the author via Recode
Kai-Fu Lee, former president of Google China, is placing substantial bets on artificial intelligence. His investment firm, Sinovation Ventures, has allocated over $600 million towards advancements in computer vision, machine learning, and other automation technologies. He believes that these innovations will significantly reshape the job market.
“When we assess the capabilities of AI, there are two significant areas it struggles with,” Lee remarked during a recent episode of Recode Decode hosted by Kara Swisher. “One involves creative roles—occupations like scientists, storytellers, and artists. The second encompasses jobs that require empathy, fostering human connections and trust.”
What about roles that lack creativity and emotional intelligence?
“Those positions will be replaced by AI,” he affirmed.
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The potential for increased interest rates without a corresponding rise in inflation, as suggested by the Federal Reserve’s recent outlook, seems to some observers as unnecessarily precarious for the economy. Nevertheless, the central bank is poised to continue raising rates, and the Treasury market is prepared for no less following the recent 25-basis-point hike, which has pushed the Fed funds target rate to a 2.0%-2.25% range, the highest level in over a decade.
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Senate committee may vote on Kavanaugh today: Politico
American Bar Association recommends delaying Kavanaugh vote: CNN
Italy defies EU by raising deficit target: Bloomberg
Israeli PM reveals secret Iranian nuclear site: Reuters
WTO revises global trade forecast down, citing trade war threats: Bloomberg
Pending Homes Sales Index declines for the eighth consecutive month: HousingWire
Fed Chairman Powell states low recession risk in the next two years: Reuters
Wholesale inventories revised down for July: CNBC
Kansas City Fed manufacturing index shows lower growth but remains solid: KC Fed
Jobless claims in the US rise more than anticipated: CNBC
US merchandise trade deficit widens to its largest gap in six months: Bloomberg
Revised Q2 US GDP growth remains at 4.2%, unchanged from prior estimates: MW
US durable goods orders rise by an impressive 11.8% year-on-year, the highest in over a year:

The stock markets in the Middle East and Gulf region are slightly outperforming the US equity market so far in 2018, according to a set of exchange-traded funds.
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Federal Reserve increases interest rates for the third time in 2018: CNN
Trump criticizes the Fed’s rate hike: CNBC
Fed’s projections for US GDP growth for 2018 and 2019 have seen an upward revision: Fed
Fed Chair Powell foresees more rate hikes in light of a strong economy: Bloomberg
Kavanaugh hearing commences today amidst doubts and fresh allegations: The Hill
Reports of increased spending plans from Italy’s government impact euro valuations: CNBC
Ford’s CEO states Trump’s tariffs on China will cost the company $1 billion: USA Today
MSCI contemplates increasing the weight of Chinese stocks in global benchmarks: Reuters
New US home sales increase by 12.7% in August compared to last year: MarketWatch

The Federal Reserve is anticipated to announce an interest rate hike during today’s policy meeting scheduled for 2:00 PM Eastern Time, according to the consensus forecast from Econoday.com. This expected adjustment aligns with rising inflation expectations observed recently, as indicated by the yield differential between nominal and inflation-adjusted Treasuries.
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Senate panel vote on Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination set for Friday: Politico
Arizona prosecutor hired to question Kavanaugh and his accuser during Senate hearing: The Hill
Trump outlines a ‘maximum pressure’ policy in UN address: The Hill
China retracts scheduled visit of US warship to Hong Kong: CNN
Fed expected to raise rates today possibly signaling an end to the ‘accommodative’ policy: Reuters
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index indicates US home price growth eased in July: CNBC
Richmond Fed manufacturing index reaches record high in September: MarketWatch
Consumer Confidence Index sees a surge in September, nearing record levels: MarketWatch

U.S. small-cap stocks have experienced significant gains throughout this year; however, investors are beginning to question if recent headwinds signal a potential end to this upward momentum.
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Supreme Court nominee denies allegations of sexual misconduct during an interview: Fox
Concerns arise regarding the future of Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein: CNN
Trump’s attorney calls for a pause in the Mueller investigation should Rosenstein depart: ABC
Russia intends to deploy advanced missiles in Syria: Axios
European Union introduces plan to circumvent US sanctions on Iran: BBC
JP Morgan strategist warns Trump risks a ‘major miscalculation’ over US-China trade: MW
Dallas Fed manufacturing index indicates slower but healthy growth in September: Dallas Fed
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (3-month average) hits a four-month high in August: Chicago Fed

In the week leading up to September 21, commodities broadly experienced a significant rally, leading all major asset classes in terms of performance, as indicated by a range of exchange-traded products. Foreign stocks from both developed and emerging markets trailed closely behind the commodities surge, marking the second and third-largest gains, respectively.
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