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The Capital Spectator: Investing, Asset Allocation, and Economics Insights

In a dramatic turn of events, U.S. stocks faced a significant selloff yesterday, impacting various sectors. Nonetheless, growth and momentum factors continued to dominate year-to-date equity performance, according to a selection of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Notably, large-cap value experienced the least decline during this tumultuous trading session, yet it still lags behind in overall performance for 2018 up to the close on October 4.
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Republicans claim that the FBI report clears Kavanaugh, setting the stage for a vote: WaPo
Escalating bond yields in the U.S. are impacting global markets: Reuters
U.S. tech stocks have plummeted to a 15-month low: Bloomberg
Emerging-market stocks are poised for their worst weekly loss since February: Reuters
Economists forecast solid job gains in today’s U.S. jobs report for September: Reuters
U.S. job cuts sharply increased in September, marking the second-highest monthly total this year: CG&C
Factory orders in August experienced the largest gain in 11 months: Reuters
The 10-year Treasury yield continued to rise on Thursday, reaching 3.19%, its highest since 2011:

With any uncertainty about the arrival of a regime characterized by rising interest rates now dispelled, the Treasury market provided a clear signal on Wednesday.
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Federal judge halts deportations planned by the Trump administration: USA Today
Vice President Pence is set to deliver a provocative speech on China: CNN
FBI delivers Kavanaugh report to the White House: Reuters
A crucial Senate vote on Kavanaugh is scheduled for Friday: The Hill
Federal Reserve Chair: U.S. expansion can last “for quite some time”: Bloomberg
Global growth slowed to a two-year low in September, according to PMI data: IHS Markit
ADP reports: U.S. companies added 230,000 jobs in September, the largest increase since February: MW
ISM Non-Mfg Index rose to its highest level in 21 years in September: Reuters
Services PMI dipped to an eight-month low in September: IHS Markit
10-year Treasury yield surged to a seven-year high of 3.15%: CNBC

The preliminary GDP report for the U.S. suggests a slower yet still robust growth rate in the third quarter, slated for public release later this month. This forecast is based on a series of nowcasts gathered by The Capital Spectator, indicating a median estimate of 3.2% growth, consistent with previous analyses in mid-September.
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The FBI’s investigation into Kavanaugh may conclude today: Fox
Senate Republicans are preparing to schedule a Kavanaugh vote this week: The Hill
Investigations reveal tax-avoidance strategies that benefited Trump: NY Times
New York has initiated a tax investigation into Trump following a NY Times report: MW
U.S. NATO representative: The U.S. might “take out” Russian missiles if Moscow violates treaties: CNN
Federal Reserve Chair Powell describes the U.S. economy as being in a “remarkably positive” state: WaPo
The Indian currency has hit record lows: CNBC
A RBC survey indicates 90% of investors believe ESG portfolios are competitive with or outperform traditional investments: P&I
Small-cap stocks (Russell 2000 Index) have dropped to a two-month low as of Tuesday:

The anticipated risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) remained stable in September, holding at an annualized rate of 5.0%. This aligns with previous estimates from the prior month. The GMI, which is an unmanaged market-value-weighted portfolio encompassing all major asset classes, reflects the additional return expected over the long-term “risk-free” rate.
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Notable differences in Trump’s NAFTA replacement: CNBC
Trump appears poised for a lengthy economic conflict with China: Bloomberg
The U.S. Navy recorded an ‘unsafe’ incident with a Chinese naval vessel: CNN
U.S. airstrikes in Somalia targeted militants: Reuters
McConnell announces the Senate will vote on Kavanaugh’s nomination this week: The Hill
U.S. construction spending rose by 0.1% in August, led by the public sector: MW
The ISM Manufacturing Index for the U.S. declined in September after reaching a 14-year high the previous month: CNBC
U.S. Manufacturing PMI surged to a four-month high in September: IHS Markit
WTI crude oil prices reached a four-year high: MW

Commodities, as a broadly defined asset class, led market performance in September, marking the first monthly gain for this sector since May. This coincides with the last period when raw materials led the performance rankings.
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The U.S. and Canada have reached an agreement on a new NAFTA trade deal: LA Times
New concerns emerged regarding the FBI investigation into Kavanaugh: CNN
Iran launched a missile strike against militants in eastern Syria: CNN
Hurricane Rosa poses a threat to Phoenix: Newsweek
Death toll in Indonesia rises sharply following the earthquake and tsunami: CBS
Secretary of Defense Mattis cancels his trip to China in response to escalating tensions: CNN
The Trump administration has taken legal action against California over its net neutrality law: TechCrunch
Brent oil has surged to a four-year high ahead of impending Iranian sanctions: Reuters
Approximately two-thirds of business economists predict a U.S. recession by late 2020: Bloomberg
The mini-recession of 2015-2016 offers significant insights: NY Times
The consumer sentiment index for the U.S. in September has been revised down but remains robust: CNBC
The Chicago PMI has dipped to a five-month low in September: MW
U.S. consumer spending experienced its smallest gain in six months during August: MW

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