This year has witnessed significant overall gains in global equity markets, as reflected by various exchange-traded funds that monitor major international regions and countries. Leading the charge in performance for 2019 are the stock markets in China, Latin America, and Africa.
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Trump to meet with China’s top trade negotiator today: Bloomberg
Existing home sales in the US fell to a three-year low in January: Reuters
Mortgage rates drop to a one-year low, indicating a potential rebound in housing: MW
US core durable goods orders decreased in December: CNBC
US jobless claims drop, indicating a resilient labor market: MW
Leading Economic Index for the US decreased in January: CB
Philly Fed Index turned negative in February—the first time in three years: MW
PMI survey indicates that US economic growth accelerated in February: IHS Markit
The trend in the US economy is showing signs of slowing down. However, the decline has thus far been gradual and does not currently raise significant concerns regarding an impending recession. In other words, moderate growth remains stable, though there is a slight downside risk. If this trend persists, we may see heightened risks in the second half of 2019.
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US and China make progress towards resolving the trade war: Reuters
House Democrats aim to block Trump’s emergency declaration: Politico
UK Prime Minister continues searching for a resolution to the Brexit deadlock: Bloomberg
Japan’s government reports the economy is recovering at a “moderate pace”: MNI
Iran’s Foreign Minister warns of potential conflict with Israel: Reuters
Eurozone growth remains sluggish in February according to PMI survey data: IHS Markit
China may seek to implement a more robust stimulus plan: CNBC
Federal Reserve minutes reveal policymakers see little risk in maintaining current rates: Reuters
Gold prices surge to a ten-month high: MarketWatch
The bullish trend in US bonds appears to be unwavering, as indicated by year-to-date performances across a variety of exchange-traded funds. All major segments of the fixed-income market recorded gains as of February 19, with junk bonds leading the way.
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House Democrats initiate an investigation into the Trump administration’s dealings with Saudi Arabia: The Hill
Deputy Transportation Secretary Rosen expected to be nominated as Deputy Attorney General: Politico
UK Prime Minister travels to Brussels to negotiate the Brexit deal: MW
Taiwan’s President claims that China is a global threat: CNN
A Chinese state-run newspaper warns of repercussions from new US tariffs: CNBC
Walmart reports significant earnings surge for Q4: CNBC
The release of Fed minutes could provide insights into potential policy changes: Bloomberg
Is the housing market too weak to trigger the next recession? NY Times
US Home Builder Confidence rose for the second consecutive month in February: BB
Recent data from the housing sector indicates a fresh wave of weakness in this vital aspect of the US economy, potentially signaling caution for the upcoming year. The release of critical updates has been delayed due to the recent government shutdown, which ended last month. The Census Bureau plans to announce the December figures on residential housing construction next week (February 26). Predictions based on various sources suggest that the forthcoming numbers will present a mixed outlook.
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Sixteen states lawsuit intends to halt Trump’s emergency powers for wall construction: The Hill
Trump warns Venezuela’s military to abandon Maduro or face severe consequences: Reuters
Global growth predicted to be at its slowest since the financial crisis: Bloomberg
New round of US-China trade discussions begins today: Reuters
Huawei’s founder claims arrest of the firm’s CFO was politically motivated: CNBC
Are regulations for securities too lax for index funds? NY Times
Honda announces plans to close its UK factory as the Brexit deadline looms: CNN
US Treasury market trading commences this week with the 10-year to 2-year spread at a two-month low:
Last week, US equities delivered the strongest performance among major asset classes, as shown by a series of exchange-traded products. Conversely, foreign bonds experienced losses, marking the poorest results for the trading week ending February 15.
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Trump expected to call upon Venezuela’s Maduro to resign: Bloomberg
ECB board member comments on Europe’s noticeable economic slowdown: Bloomberg
Trump set to veto a vote in Congress that challenges his emergency declaration: The Hill
US stocks and bonds sending mixed signals about the economy: CNBC
Cyberattacks from foreign hackers on US companies are increasing: NY Times
US import prices have decreased for the third consecutive month: Newsmax
US industrial production saw a decline in January for the first time in eight months: MW
NY Fed Manufacturing Index improved in February after a previous decline in January: MW
Consumer Sentiment Index in the US rebounded in February after a sharp decline: UoM
The following insights delve into various economic trends and market performances observed in early 2019, highlighting critical developments across global equity markets, housing sectors, and economic indicators in the US. As varied as these updates may be, they serve to inform and contextualize the current financial landscape.
In summary, the economic landscape in early 2019 exhibits a mixture of growth and caution. While some sectors show resilience, others hint at underlying challenges. Continuous monitoring of these trends will be essential for anticipating future market movements and potential economic shifts.
