Recent preliminary estimates indicate a continuation of the economic slowdown that began in the latter half of 2018 for the United States in the first quarter of this year. This analysis, conducted by The Capital Spectator, acknowledges that there is still some uncertainty about the extent of this deceleration, particularly because we are still early in the current quarter. However, survey data from February highlights a potential rebound in the services sector, which may suggest that overall economic growth is stabilizing.
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North Korea is reportedly in the process of rebuilding significant missile testing facilities: NY Times
A record number of migrant families were apprehended at the US-Mexico border: WSJ
President Trump is urging negotiators to finalize a trade deal with China: Bloomberg
Global economic growth saw a slight increase in February: IHS Markit
The OECD has again reduced its 2019 global economic growth forecast: Reuters
New home sales in the US rebounded to a seven-month high in December: CNBC
The US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index demonstrated strong growth in February: Logistics Mgt
The US Services PMI indicated growth reached a seven-month high in February: IHS Markit
The estimated risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) rose in February to an annualized rate of 4.6%, slightly surpassing the forecast made in January. This revised estimate for the GMI—an unmanaged market-value-weighted portfolio encompassing all the major asset classes except cash—reflects the anticipated premium over the projected “risk-free” rate in the long run.
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President Trump announced the termination of US preferential trade treatment for India: Reuters
China has reduced its growth target for 2019 to between 6% and 6.5%: WSJ
Democrats in the House are conducting a wide-ranging investigation of Trump’s activities: CNN
The crisis within Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau’s administration is escalating: BBC
The Eurozone PMI indicates slow economic growth improved slightly in February: IHS Markit
Sales of light trucks and automobiles in the US plummeted to an 18-month low in January: Argus
This week marks the 10-year anniversary of the market’s low during the Great Recession: CNBC
The US construction spending growth rate fell to a seven-year low in December:
In the spring of 2017, Yahoo unexpectedly changed its technical coding rules, disrupting access to its financial data and affecting numerous R users, including myself. This abrupt shift rendered many meticulously crafted R files inoperative, which was quite frustrating.
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The major asset classes presented a combination of gains and losses last week, with foreign high-yield bonds and developed market stocks leading the pack. Conversely, broadly defined commodities and US real estate investment trusts (REITs) experienced the most significant downturns according to a review of markets using a selection of exchange-traded funds.
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The US and China seem poised to finalize a trade agreement: Reuters
Will Friday’s US jobs report alleviate concerns about the economy? CNBC
Eurozone Mfg PMI indicates contraction in February: IHS Markit
Global Mfg PMI fell to a 32-month low in February: IHS Markit
US personal income decreased in January—the first monthly decline in three years: CNBC
The US Consumer Sentiment Index for February was revised downward: Bloomberg
The Manufacturing PMI in the US dropped to an 18-month low in February: IHS Markit
The ISM Manufacturing Index in the US eased to its lowest level since November 2016: CNBC
US consumer spending experienced a significant decline in December—its largest drop in nine years: AP
What Everyone Needs to Know
By H. Kent Baker, et al.
Summary via publisher (Oxford University Press)
People often make illogical financial decisions, focusing too much on the present while neglecting future consequences. In “Behavioral Finance: What Everyone Needs to Know,” the authors examine common cognitive biases and errors in financial decision-making, including emotional influences and social factors. These issues can vary across different stages of life, affected by age, experience, and gender.
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US stocks have shown a strong recovery in 2019, leading all major asset classes with impressive performance in February. Foreign stocks, high-yield bonds, and US real estate investment trusts (REITs) also recorded gains, while investment-grade bonds in both the US and abroad faced downturns.
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US officials are finalizing details of a trade agreement with China: Bloomberg
The US Senate may vote to counteract Trump’s emergency border declaration: Reuters
The UN Security Council has vetoed a resolution for a new presidential election in Venezuela: CNN
Eurozone manufacturing activity contracted in February for the first time since 2013: IHS Markit
The US GDP growth slowed for the second consecutive quarter in Q4 of 2018: NY Times
Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell stated that the US economy “is in a good place”: WSJ
US jobless claims rose unexpectedly last week: CNBC
Chicago area business activity surged to a one-year high in February: Chicago PMI
Manufacturing activity in the KC Fed district remained mostly stable in February: KC Fed
The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields reached a year-to-date high of 21 basis points:
