Categories Finance

The Capital Spectator: Investing, Asset Allocation, and Economic Insights

US proposes tariffs on nations with undervalued currencies: Bloomberg
UK Prime Minister May announces resignation: Reuters
India’s Prime Minister Modi wins second term: NY Times
Inflation in Japan hits a three-year high in April: Reuters
New US home sales declined in April after post-recession highs: MW
US jobless claims drop to 211k, nearing a 50-year low: MW
KC Fed region factory growth slows in May: KC Fed
US economic sentiment dipped to a three-year low in May via Composite PMI: IHS Markit

Diversification is often touted as the only free lunch available in investing, making its analysis a fundamental aspect of portfolio design and management. The correlation coefficient serves as a primary metric in this area of finance. However, like any statistical measure, it has its limitations, and relying solely on it can lead to misleading conclusions. Thankfully, there are alternative methods available.

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Trump states he won’t collaborate with Democrats on infrastructure legislation: WSJ
Rising pessimism regarding the US-China trade outlook: Bloomberg
US Navy conducts another transit through the Taiwan Strait: Reuters
PMI indicates subdued Eurozone growth in May: IHS Markit
Reports suggest British Prime Minister May is poised to resign: CNBC
Minutes from the Fed indicate no imminent rate changes: CNBC
Vanguard releases new forecasts for US stocks’ 10-year returns (4%-6%): philly.com
The 5-year Treasury inflation forecast drops to a four-month low at 1.68%:

Throughout much of this year, Chinese equities have been at the forefront of a widespread global stock surge. However, recent hardline trade policies introduced by the Trump administration have shifted the leadership dynamic among various regional and market equities based on a series of publicly traded funds.

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US: Reports indicate Syria may be using chemical weapons again: Reuters
Pressure mounts on House Speaker to initiate impeachment proceedings against Trump: The Hill
St. Louis Fed Chief presents rationale for reducing rates: WSJ
US contemplating a blacklist for several Chinese tech firms: Bloomberg
Chinese ambassador to the US asserts Beijing is still open to trade discussions: MW
The Fed expresses concerns about low inflation despite strong economic performance: NY Times
UK Prime Minister May’s last Brexit strategy collapses: Reuters
Americans’ confidence in the job market reaches an all-time high since 2001: Gallup
US existing home sales in April continue to decline in year-over-year comparisons: MW

Recent economic indicators are casting a shadow over the US macroeconomic outlook. While a recession hasn’t started and isn’t likely to occur in the very near future, several significant metrics indicate a deceleration in economic output, leading to increased uncertainty for the latter half of the year.

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Federal judge orders Trump to provide financial records to the House: Fox
House Democratic leaders dispute whether to proceed with impeachment: The Hill
Iran substantially increases uranium production: Reuters
US reduces hiring of Chinese nationals in semiconductor companies: WSJ
Fed Chair Powell states that rising corporate debt isn’t a current risk: CNBC
Is China planning to restrict rare-earth elements essential for the tech industry? Stratfor
Emerging markets bearing the brunt of the escalating US-China trade conflict: CNBC
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (3-month average) hits a three-year low in April:

For the second consecutive week, emerging market equities experienced significant declines, recording the deepest losses among the major asset classes based on a set of exchange-traded funds for the trading week concluded on Friday, May 17.
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Trump cautions Iran against making threats to the US: Fox
US warships navigate through a disputed area in the South China Sea: Reuters
Japan’s economy surprises with unexpected growth in Q1: BBC
Major US tech companies begin restricting partnerships with China’s Huawei: Bloomberg
OPEC indicates it will prolong production cuts until the end of the year: MW
Conservative Australian Prime Minister triumphs in re-election: AP
US Leading Economic Indicator for April suggests persistent expansion: CB
US Consumer Sentiment Index surges to a 15-year high in May: UoM

The Theft of a Decade: How the Baby Boomers Stole the Millennials’ Economic Future
By Joseph C. Sternberg
Q&A with WBUR.org
In a new publication, Wall Street Journal writer Joseph C. Sternberg argues that the economic policies of the baby boomer generation jeopardize the financial stability of their offspring. The baby-boom cohort spanned from 1946 to 1964, whereas Millennials are identified as individuals born between 1981 and 1997, according to Pew Research Center.
The decade referenced in Sternberg’s title, “The Theft of a Decade: How the Baby Boomers Stole the Millennials’ Economic Future,” focuses on the period following the global financial crisis of 2008.
He explains to [WBUR] Here & Now’s Jeremy Hobson that he chose this decade as it coincided with the time when the largest number of millennials were graduating from college and beginning their professional journeys.
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