Investing in fixed-income assets has proven to be highly rewarding this year. Allocating funds across various segments of U.S. bonds has resulted in considerable gains, particularly for those who are willing to embrace longer duration risks.
U.S. and China agree to phase out tariffs: Reuters
Record $7 billion in tariffs collected by the U.S. in September: WSJ
Global growth near stagnation in October: IHS Markit
German industrial output continued its decline in September: Bloomberg
European Commission lowers eurozone growth forecast: Bloomberg
IMF downgrades its outlook for eurozone economy: IMF
U.S. worker productivity dropped in Q3—the first decline in three years: Bloomberg
Uncertain about the future of U.S. inflation? Recent conflicting reports are making it even more challenging to discern.
Democrats win important elections in Virginia and Kentucky: Reuters
Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecasts weak 1.0% U.S. growth for Q4: AF
German manufacturing orders exceeded expectations in September: Reuters
Eurozone Composite PMI indicates sluggish growth in October: IHS Markit
Japan’s Composite PMI suggests recession for the first time in three years: IHS Markit
Declining U.S. imports point to slower economic growth ahead: WSJ
Growth in the U.S. services sector accelerated in October, showing moderate growth: CNBC
U.S. Services PMI shows the slowest growth in sector activity in over three years: IHS Markit
U.S. job openings fell to an 18-month low in September: CNBC
The anticipated risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) showed a slight increase in October, reaching an annualized figure of 4.8%. This adjustment reflects a minimal rise over the previous month’s estimate. Additionally, it indicates a marginal rise compared to the projection from last year, which stood at 4.5% in October 2018 (see table below). GMI is an unmanaged, market-value-weighted portfolio encompassing all the major asset classes excluding cash. This forecast for this benchmark signifies the expected premium over the anticipated “risk-free” rate in the long term.
U.S. and China explore reducing trade tariffs as part of the initial trade agreement: WSJ
China’s President Xi expresses confidence in Hong Kong’s leader: BBC
OPEC lowers its forecast for oil demand, citing global economic pressures: CNBC
U.S. officially begins the process of exiting the Paris climate agreement: Reuters
The UK services sector showed no growth in October: IHS Markit
Eurozone producer price inflation dropped to a three-year low of -1.2% in September: Eurostat
There is a slight uptick in expected growth for the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index in October: Twitter
Factory orders in the U.S. dropped by 3.5% in September compared to the same month last year, marking the lowest growth in three years.
U.S. equities outperformed global markets during the trading week ending on Friday, November 1, according to a selection of exchange-traded funds representing the major asset classes.
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Progress reported in U.S.-China trade discussions: Bloomberg
Southeast Asian nations set to sign Asia-Pacific trade pact in 2020: CNBC
Democrats may have a chance to regain the Senate in the 2020 elections: The Hill
Iran distances itself further from compliance with its nuclear agreement: Reuters
U.S. equity market leads global performance: WSJ
A manufacturing recession in the Eurozone is a significant drag on Q4 GDP: IHS Markit
Economic modeling supports the potential for Trump’s re-election: Bloomberg
October saw an unexpected rise in U.S. payrolls: Reuters
Mild recession in U.S. manufacturing observed in October based on ISM data: MW
October PMI data indicates a modest rise in U.S. manufacturing activity: IHS Markit
Construction spending in the U.S. increased by 0.5% in September, exceeding forecasts.
By Thomas Philippon
Summary via publisher (Belknap Press/Harvard University Press)
A prominent economist argues that numerous challenges in the American economy stem not from shortcomings of capitalism or globalization’s inevitabilities but from the concentration of corporate power. By lobbying against competition, major firms elevate profits while suppressing wages and curtailing opportunities for investment, innovation, and growth. In many sectors of the economy, a few dominating players exert increasing influence, seeking to protect their profit margins through political lobbying. This phenomenon is driving up costs while stifling investment, productivity, growth, and wages, contributing to greater inequality. Meanwhile, Europe, once criticized for its lack of competitiveness, is outperforming the U.S. in fostering a more competitive landscape.
In October, companies hired more workers than anticipated, according to the U.S. Labor Department. This improvement is encouraging, particularly as analysts were expecting a much smaller increase. However, it’s too early for celebrations. As noted by The Capital Spectator, the one-year trend continues to show a gradual downward slope, indicating that the labor market is likely experiencing a prolonged downturn.
