<div class="entry-content">This past week saw yet another positive trend in emerging market shares, which experienced the most significant growth among major asset classes during the trading week ending January 10, according to various exchange-traded funds.
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<p>Protests in Iran increase pressure on the government: <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/13/middleeast/iran-protests-pressure-khamenei-intl-hnk/index.html">CNN</a><br/>The US-China trade war had minimal impact on the US economy in 2019: <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/trade-war-with-china-took-toll-on-u-s-but-not-big-one-11578832381">WSJ</a><br/>Could China showcase military strength after Taiwan’s elections? <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-taiwan-election-analysis/china-could-flex-military-muscles-to-pressure-taiwan-post-election-idUSKBN1ZC0LE">Reuters</a><br/>Trump aims to resume negotiations with North Korea: <a href="https://www.axios.com/trump-kim-jong-un-north-korea-robert-obrien-7200b5af-2af8-4470-81ca-c42bcfd2842a.html">Axios</a><br/>UK GDP declined by 0.3% in November, marking the fourth consecutive month of stagnation: <a href="https://www.cityam.com/uk-gdp-economy-shrank-0-3-per-cent-in-run-up-to-election/">CityAM</a><br/>US employment growth slowed in December following a robust November: <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-employment-growth-slows-labor-market-tightening-idUSKBN1Z90E6">Reuters</a><br/>US <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-creates-145000-new-jobs-in-december-2020-01-10">wage growth</a> in December eased to an annual pace of 2.9%, the slowest in over a year:</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0231194749/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0231194749&linkCode=as2&tag=bookscs-20&linkId=11b8d568378d8a005d99bb1393aa5e3e" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><img decoding="async" class="alignleft" src="https://ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&MarketPlace=US&ASIN=0231194749&ServiceVersion=20070822&ID=AsinImage&WS=1&Format=_SL250_&tag=bookscs-20" border="0"/></a><img decoding="async" style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" src="https://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=bookscs-20&l=am2&o=1&a=0231194749" alt="" width="1" height="1" border="0"/>● <a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0231194749/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0231194749&linkCode=as2&tag=bookscs-20&linkId=24f52e6ef51a82d0fa647d99d67412ea" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty: Three Centuries of Economic Decision-Making</a><img decoding="async" style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" src="https://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=bookscs-20&l=am2&o=1&a=0231194749" alt="" width="1" height="1" border="0"/><br/>By George G. Szpiro<br/><strong><a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/risk-choice-and-uncertainty/9780231194747">Summary</a> via publisher (Columbia U. Press)</strong><br/>At its core, economics revolves around decision-making. The history of economic thought showcases significant intellectual efforts directed at creating intricate theories for optimal decision-making under constraints, risks, and limited resources. However, our choices are not always driven solely by logic, which creates an ongoing debate between the rational and irrational facets of human behavior. One area formulates models based on rational utility maximization, while another incorporates insights from behavioral science that illustrate our proclivity for irrational actions. In *Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty*, George G. Szpiro presents a fresh narrative on the three-century story behind decision-making studies, chronicling the evolution of vital concepts and the influential figures who have shaped the field.</p>
<div class="entry-content">The hiring increase for December was anticipated to be modest; however, the report from the US Labor Department revealed numbers that fell short of economists’ expectations. In December, companies added 139,000 jobs, which is a bit less than the consensus forecast of 150,000 from Econoday.com. While still a respectable figure, it pales in comparison to November’s impressive surge of 243,000 new jobs in the private sector.
<div class="entry-content">Ben Graham aptly characterized the psychological state of Mr. Market as subject to erratic fluctuations of optimism and pessimism. However, recent trends indicate that the market’s view on commodities and energy has been relatively stable, consistently pricing these assets at significantly lower valuations, as assessed through a variety of exchange-traded products. This pattern was evident in our last update (Aug. 22, 2019) and continues to hold true.
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<p>Iran challenges claims that it unintentionally shot down a Ukrainian jetliner: <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-09/missile-strike-seen-by-u-s-officials-as-likely-iran-crash-cause?srnd=premium">Bloomberg</a><br/>The House passes a resolution to limit Trump’s military powers: <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/09/house-passes-war-powers-resolution-to-limit-trump-in-iran.html">CNBC</a><br/>A slowdown in December’s employment report is anticipated for the US: <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-job-growth-seen-slowing-in-december-after-robust-gains-idUSKBN1Z90E6">Reuters</a><br/>The World Bank warns of an escalating risk of a debt crisis: <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/08/world-bank-global-debt-crisis-borrowing-build-up?CMP=share_btn_tw">Guardian</a><br/>US jobless claims dropped once more last week, nearing a 50-year low: <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-jobless-claims-fall-for-4th-week-in-a-row-to-214000-back-near-postrecession-low-2020-01-09">MW</a><br/>Rising consumer confidence conflicts with declining CEO sentiment: <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/09/ceo-confidence-in-economy-has-cratered-consumers-say-things-are-ok.html">CNBC</a></p>
<div class="entry-content">The benchmark yield for the 10-year Treasury has been rising since October, indicating that the significant decline earlier in 2019 has likely come to an end. Nonetheless, the economic outlook remains sufficiently unclear, leading to caution in determining whether this recent increase in yield marks a brief recovery after an arguably excessive drop or signals the beginning of a sustained upward trend.
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<p>Trump opts to de-escalate tensions with Iran: <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/iran-missile-strikes-us-military-facilities-iraq-analysis/story?id=68132626">ABC</a><br/>Tensions between the US and Iran lessen, but risks still persist: <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/09/us-iran-tensions-soleiman-killing-irans-promise-of-revenge-yet-to-play-out.html">CNBC</a><br/>China’s vice premier is set to finalize a trade deal with the US next week: <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china/chinas-vice-premier-liu-to-sign-u-s-trade-deal-in-washington-next-week-idUSKBN1Z80O3">Reuters</a><br/>The US is projected to have added 2.14 million jobs last year, marking the smallest increase since 2011: <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-09/a-great-year-for-u-s-jobs-is-also-likely-to-be-worst-since-2011?srnd=premium">Bloomberg</a><br/>The World Bank has revised downwards its global growth forecasts: <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2020/01/08/january-2020-global-economic-prospects-slow-growth-policy-challenges">WB</a><br/>German industrial production saw a notable rebound in November: <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/germany-economy-output/update-1-german-industrial-production-posts-biggest-increase-in-1-1-2-years-idUSL8N29E1CC">Reuters</a><br/>A pessimistic economics summit contrasts with a growing economy: <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/08/business/economy-recession-economists.html">NY Times</a><br/>According to ADP, US private job growth <a href="https://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2019/December/NER/NER-December-2019.aspx">increased in December</a>, yet the annual trend continued to decline:</p>
<div class="entry-content">The US economy is projected to grow at a steady pace during the last quarter of 2019. This outlook is based on a median prediction for the initial GDP report for Q4 that the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release on January 30. If this estimate holds true, economic output will rise at a pace similar to that of Q3, indicating that the risk of a recession remained low as the year concluded.
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<p>Iran retaliates by launching missiles at US bases in Iraq: <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/07/iran-state-tv-says-tehran-has-launched-missiles-at-iraqs-air-base-housing-us-troops.html">CNBC</a><br/>Taiwan’s pro-independence president appears poised for re-election: <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/08/world/asia/china-taiwan-hong-kong-protests.html">NY Times</a><br/>Eurozone economic sentiment saw an uptick for the second month in December: <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eurozone-economy-sentiment/euro-zone-economic-sentiment-edges-up-on-italy-spain-optimism-idUKKBN1Z71CY?il=0">Reuters</a><br/>Germany continues to struggle, as manufacturing orders decreased in November: <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-economy-industrial-orders/german-misery-continues-as-industrial-orders-fall-unexpectedly-idUSKBN1Z70W3">Reuters</a><br/>The US services sector continued to experience moderate expansion in December: <a href="https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/files/ISMReport/ROB201912NMI.pdf">ISM</a><br/>The US trade deficit narrowed to a three-year low in November: <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-trade-deficit-sinks-82-to-3-year-low-in-november-amid-china-trade-war-2020-01-07">MW</a><br/>The Atlanta Fed’s Q4 GDP growth nowcast remains steady at +2.3%: <a href="https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow">AF</a><br/>US <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-factory-orders-goods-drop-november-amid-manufacturing-recession-tariffs-2020-1-1028800481">factory orders</a> continue to show a downward trend on a year-over-year basis in November:</p>
