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The Capital Spectator: Investing, Asset Allocation, and Economics Insights

This winter is expected to be particularly challenging. A resurgence of Covid-19 throughout the United States indicates that the next few months may present one of the most difficult tests for the nation yet.

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The Biden transition progresses despite Trump’s refusal to concede: WSJ
The US reported record Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations on Tuesday: AP
US states dismiss claims of election fraud: NYT
Promising vaccine news raises hopes for a global economic rebound: WSJ
Pro-democracy lawmakers in Hong Kong resign in protest: Reuters
Obamacare is likely to withstand a fresh challenge in the Supreme Court: CNBC
Economic challenges await the incoming Biden presidency: Politico
China increases scrutiny of fintech, putting it in regulatory view: BBG
Lael Brainard, a Fed governor, is a leading contender for Treasury Secretary: Fortune
Small business sentiment in the US remained strong in September: NFIB
Job openings in the US increased in September, but the overall trend is still declining: Reuters

The bond market has renewed interest in reflation as Treasury yields climbed on November 9. This surge may have been influenced by Joe Biden’s Electoral College victory. Additionally, Pfizer’s announcement regarding a highly effective Covid-19 vaccine ignited optimism. While it’s premature to claim that a longstanding disinflationary trend has concluded, the notion of a possible regime shift is gaining traction once more.
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Prominent Republicans refuse to acknowledge Biden’s election victory: NYT
Pfizer’s vaccine trial indicates significant progress in combating the pandemic: Reuters
Europe faces a shortage of ICU beds and medical staff as virus levels surge: AP
Trump terminates Defense Secretary Esper: CNN
China’s inflation decreases despite economic recovery: Reuters
Analysts predict that the US dollar may weaken under a Biden administration: CNBC
German investor confidence has dipped for a second consecutive month: BBG
Armenia and Azerbaijan declare an end to their conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh: AP
The head of GAO raises questions about delaying the transition to a Biden administration: BBG
The 10-year Treasury yield climbs to 0.96%, the highest level since March: CNBC

Last week saw a significant rebound in global markets, with all major asset classes posting gains as of Friday, November 6. However, the ongoing resurgence of the pandemic in the US and Europe poses challenges for the potential of a sustained rally.
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Anticipated changes in the Biden administration are set to reverse many aspects of Trump’s policies through new executive orders: FT
Trump’s advisors view legal challenges to Biden’s victory as pointless: BBG
Covid-19 will be the top priority for the incoming Biden administration: NYT
Concerns arise about whether the pandemic could overburden the US health system before Biden takes office: Politico
Washington anticipates uncertainty during Trump’s remaining time in office: TH
Democrats express concerns regarding McConnell’s potential influence in the Senate: CNN
Goldman Sachs reduces its economic growth forecast due to the resurgence of Covid-19: MW
While US payrolls showed signs of recovery in October, they remain significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels: BBG

The Mismeasure of Progress: Economic Growth and Its Critics
Stephen J. Macekura
Summary via publisher (Chicago U. Press)
Few ideas in the past century have profoundly impacted finance, politics, and governance like that of economic growth. The widely held belief that perpetual economic growth, as measured by Gross Domestic Product, is not only feasible but essential for civilization’s progress remains a strong policy aim for many. In The Mismeasure of Progress, Stephen J. Macekura uncovers an alternative historical narrative, shedding light on those activists and intellectuals who have long contended that GDP growth is not the panacea it is often portrayed to be.

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Recovery in Risk Assets: A week can significantly alter circumstances. While global attention focused on the US election, where Joe Biden seems set for the presidency per the latest vote counts, worldwide markets experienced a recovery following last week’s widespread downturn. All categories within our major asset lineup registered positive movement.

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Recent data indicates that the US economy is gradually recovering from the initial shock of the coronavirus pandemic. However, this resurgence faces increasing threats due to the rapid rise in Covid-19 cases, fatalities, and hospitalizations.

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As vote counting continues, Biden inches closer to the presidency: Reuters
A federal judge denies the Trump campaign’s request to halt voting in Philadelphia: Reuters
Georgia’s vote counting gives Biden a lead in the state for the first time: BBG
Control of the Senate remains uncertain, hinging on Georgia’s runoff election in January: Politico
Early tests of a nasal spray designed to block the coronavirus show promise: NYT
The Federal Reserve maintains low interest rates, warning of potential coronavirus fallout for the economy: CNN
Job cuts in the US during October fell to the lowest level in seven months: CGC
While jobless claims declined again in the US, they remain at elevated levels: CNBC

As we navigate through these turbulent times, it is crucial to stay informed about the various developments in the political and economic landscape. Each news update provides insights that could shape our understanding and preparedness for the challenges ahead.

In conclusion, the upcoming months are likely to test our resilience as the pandemic continues to impact various facets of life. Keeping abreast of reliable information will be vital as we transition through these uncertain times.

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