Greetings, I’m Yves. The recent, severe heat waves experienced across Europe—a region that is generally more conscious of climate change—highlight a significant shortfall in foresight and strategic planning. In stark contrast, developing nations, particularly in Africa, are often found on the brink of survival. They are severely affected by food shortages, droughts, massive flooding, and other catastrophic events, giving them a wealth of experience in coping and adaptation. It’s perplexing that affluent nations fail to recognize that the ongoing El Niño phenomenon, coupled with surging fertilizer and diesel costs, will inevitably lead to increased hunger, starvation, and mass migrations in poorer countries. Historically, rising food and fuel prices have sparked uprisings, like the Arab Spring. The elites in wealthy nations remain distanced from the struggles faced by low-income and even middle-class households, leaving them oblivious to the looming threats of instability on both community and national levels.
However, expecting these elites to dedicate effort towards alleviating issues they perceive as distant seems exceedingly unrealistic. Nonetheless, we continue sharing this information, as it offers actionable insights at the local level.
By Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi, Professor of Climate Change, Food Systems and Health and Director of The Lancet Countdown in Africa, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, and Mendy Ndlovu, Agrometeorologist and Researcher in the Sustainable and Healthy Food Systems – Southern Africa programme, University of KwaZulu-Natal. Originally published at The Conversation
In June 2026, climate prediction scientists announced the formation of El Niño, a cyclical weather phenomenon that occurs every two to seven years. It is anticipated to escalate into one of the most powerful instances ever recorded—a “super” El Niño.
This phenomenon results from unusually warm surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, leading to altered weather patterns globally, often producing extreme conditions like droughts, floods, and heatwaves.
In southern Africa, it triggers hot, dry weather, which previously forced 18 million people into hunger during past cycles.
In east and central Africa, heavy rains and flooding have previously destroyed over 600,000 homes, along with farmland and health services. West Africa has also experienced reduced harvests and escalating food prices, leaving families grappling with food shortages long after the events have passed.
A “super” El Niño arises when Pacific Ocean temperatures soar significantly above the norm. Parts of the Pacific are anticipated to be around 3°C warmer than usual by the close of 2026.
There have only been three recorded super El Niño events since 1982. The most recent instance, in 2015-16, left over 36 million people in east and southern Africa facing hunger. The repercussions extended to food security, water availability, health access, and livelihoods.
The looming reality of this reoccurring scenario is understandably alarming.
My research demonstrates that Africa, marred by high poverty rates, underdevelopment, and fragile infrastructure, is particularly susceptible to climate risks that devastate food systems and health.
However, focusing solely on risks tells only half of the tale.
African nations have spent years adapting and coping with recurrent cycles of droughts, floods, variability in rainfall, and food insecurity. The continent has acquired invaluable experience in managing multiple harsh conditions.
It is crucial for the world to recognize the knowledge, practices, and adaptation strategies that African communities, institutions, and researchers have cultivated through their experiences. As climate impacts grow more intense globally, these experiences provide essential frameworks for building resilience.
The Five Hard-Won Lessons
1. Preparedness is better than response: In Africa, governments, researchers, humanitarian organizations, and communities have realized the importance of taking preemptive actions before disasters strike. Implementing early warning systems and making preparedness plans can significantly mitigate losses before they escalate into humanitarian disasters. While there are still gaps in these systems, Africa’s Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Early Action Situation Room is becoming increasingly robust, although financial constraints remain an obstacle.
In periods of super El Niño, the impacts of droughts, food insecurity, and detriments to health systems become significantly amplified. Adequate preparation enables communities to safeguard their livelihoods and avoid depleting savings or incurring debt to recover.
2. Indigenous and climate-resilient crops are part of the solution: The agricultural future of Africa can’t be solely reliant on a limited array of staple crops like maize and wheat, which are increasingly threatened by climate variances. My research highlights the potential benefits of underutilized crops such as sorghum, millet, bambara groundnut, and cowpea. These crops have been cultivated for generations and are better suited to withstand harsh growing conditions compared to conventional staples.
3. Water, energy, food, and health cannot be treated separately: Climate impacts rarely remain confined to a single domain. A drought influences crop production, which in turn affects food prices and nutritional availability. Water shortages can strain healthcare systems, while energy interruptions can disrupt irrigation, healthcare access, and economic activities. The cascading effects of El Niño extend into agriculture, water supply, nutrition, and health.
Connections exist among water, energy, food security, environmental sustainability, and health. Given that these challenges often coincide across Africa, nations have learned that integrated solutions are required rather than isolated approaches.
4. The biggest limitation is finance, not knowledge: Across the continent, various stakeholders—researchers, farmers, practitioners, and institutions—have formulated strategies to counter climatic risks. However, more funding is crucial. Development finance, grants for climate change adaptation, and concessional financing can empower vulnerable nations and communities that struggle to secure loans on conventional market terms, allowing for investments in irrigation, healthcare, and infrastructure.
Furthermore, smallholder farmers require financial backing to insure their crops and livestock. Governments need funding to support social protection and cash transfer programs that establish crucial safety nets during disasters, thus preventing families from selling assets or withdrawing children from education.
Read more: Climate crisis is a daily reality for many African communities: how to try and protect them
Many known solutions are already available and tested. The challenge lies in expanding their reach. Climate adaptation financing for Africa remains significantly lower than necessary. Pledged funds are often released slowly, with stringent conditions for acquisition. Governments may be compelled to contribute some of their resources, and the accounting systems used often do not align with local contexts.
This hampers proven interventions from reaching the communities that require them most.
Read more: El Niño disasters: governments know what’s coming, but are unprepared – what must change
5. Partnership must replace paternalism: Building climate resilience cannot occur through one-directional relationships wherein solutions are conceived elsewhere and imposed on African communities.
Effective resilience emerges from local ownership, trusted institutions, and the capacity of nations and communities to devise or modify solutions tailored to their contexts.
Africa requires partnerships based on shared learning, common objectives, and acknowledgment of existing expertise. This involves bolstering institutions, expanding capabilities, supporting enabling networks, and creating diverse and flexible financing mechanisms.
The impending super El Niño will again test the resilience of Africa’s systems, institutions, and communities. Yet, it also presents an opportunity to showcase Africa as a source of climate knowledge, adaptation experience, and common-sense solutions developed under some of the most challenging circumstances on the planet.
